Future of EU Agricultural Markets by AGMEMOD (eBook)

PART I Introduction 1. Background1.1 Origins of EU and CAP1.1.1 Recent CAP Reforms1.1.2 Future Evolution of CAP1.2 Modelling the CAP at Member State Level1.2.1 Heterogeneity of EU Agriculture1.2.2 Heterogeneity of EU Agricultural Policy1.2.3 Heterogeneity of CAP Outcomes1.3 Model Features1.4 Economic Models of European Agriculture1.5 The Baseline Concept1.6 Conclusion2. Model Structure and Parameterisation2.1 PE Model Structure2.2 AGMEMOD Model Structure2.2.1 Country and Commodity Coverage2.2.2 Functional Form2.2.3 Price Formation and Market Closure2.3 Estimating and Testing2.4 Policy Modelling2.5 Conclusion3. AGMEMOD Model3.1 Database3.1.1 Mnemonics Protocol3.1.2 Endogenous Variables3.1.3 Exogenous Variables3.1.4 Data Generator Tool3.2 Combination of Country Models3.2.1 From Conceptual to Computer Model3.2.2 GAMS Generator  Tool3.3 AGMEMOD User Interface3.3.1 Viewing and Revising Data3.3.2 Viewing and Revising Equations3.3.3 Viewing and Revising the GAMS Model3.3.4 Running the Model and Showing the Output3.4 Validation3.4.1 Procedure3.4.2 Helpful Tools3.5 ConclusionPART II4. EU Market Outlook4.1 Baseline Formulation4.1.1 Marcoeconomy4.1.2 World Market Prices4.1.3 Agricultural (Trade) and Biofuel Policies4.2 EU Baseline Market Outlook4.2.1 EU Grains and Oilseeds Baseline4.2.2 EU Other Crops Baseline4.2.3 EU Livestock and Meat Baseline4.2.4 EU Milk and Dairy Products Baseline4.3 Conclusion5. The CAP Beyond 20135.1 CAP Direct Payment Issue5.2 Methodological Concept and Scenarios Definition5.3 Scenario Results5.3.1 Grains and Oilseeds5.3.2 Livestock and Meat5.3.3 Milk and Dairy Products5.4 Conclusion 6. Conclusions and Future Work Index