Front Cover 1
Climate Change: Observed Impacts on Planet Earth 4
Copyright 5
Contents 6
Foreword 14
Preface 16
Contributors 20
Introduction 24
Part I: Possible Causes of Climate Change 26
Chapter 1: The Role of Atmospheric Gases in Global Warming 28
1. Introduction 28
2. Origin of the Greenhouse Effect: 'Primary' and 'Secondary' Effects 29
3. The Physical Chemistry Properties of Greenhouse Gases 34
4. The Lifetime of a Greenhouse Gas in the Earth's Atmosphere 40
5. General Comments on Long-Lived Greenhouse Gases 42
6. Conclusion 43
Acknowledgements 43
References 44
Chapter 2: The Role of Widespread Surface Solar Radiation Trends in Climate Change: Dimming and Brightening 46
1. Introduction 47
2. Solar Radiation and its Measurement 47
3. Trends in Surface Solar Radiation or Global Dimming and Brightening 51
4. The Causes of Dimming and Brightening 57
5. The Influence of Solar Radiation Changes (Dimming and Brightening) on Climate 58
6. Conclusions 63
References 63
Chapter 3: The Role of Space Weather and Cosmic Ray Effects in Climate Change 68
1. Introduction 69
2. Solar Activity, Cosmic Rays and Climate Change 70
3. The Influence on the Earth's Climate of the Solar System Moving Around the Galactic Centre and Crossing Galaxy Arms 90
4. The Influence of Molecular-dust Galactic Clouds on the Earth's Climate 90
5. The Influence of Interplanetary Dust Sources on the Earth's Climate 92
6. Space Factors and Global Warming 93
7. The Influence of Asteroids on the Earth's Climate 95
8. The Influence of Nearby Supernova on the Earth's Climate 95
9. Discussion and Conclusions 96
Acknowledgments 98
References 99
Chapter 4: The Role of Volcanic Activity in Climate and Global Change 102
1. Introduction 102
2. Aerosol Loading, Spatial Distribution and Radiative Effect 104
3. Volcanoes and Climate 107
4. Summary 123
Acknowledgements 124
References 124
Chapter 5: The Role of Variations of the Earth's Orbital Characteristics in Climate Change 128
1. Introduction 128
2. Astronomical Parameters 129
3. Orbital-Induced Climate Change 137
4. Conclusion 145
References 146
Part II: A Geological History of Climate Change 150
Chapter 6: A Geological History of Climate Change 152
1. Introduction 152
2. Climate Models 153
3. Long-Term Climate Trends 154
4. Early Climate History 156
5. Phanerozoic Glaciations 157
6. The Mesozoic-Early Cenozoic Greenhouse 158
7. Development of the Quaternary Icehouse 159
8. Astronomical Modulation of Climate 160
9. Milankovitch Cyclicity in Quaternary (Pleistocene) Climate History 161
10. Quaternary Sub-Milankovitch Cyclicity 162
11. The Holocene 163
12. Climate of the Anthropocene 163
13. Conclusions 164
Acknowledgement 164
References 164
Part III: Indicators of Climate and Global Change 168
Chapter 7: Changes in the Atmospheric Circulation as Indicator of Climate Change 170
1. Introduction 170
2. The General Circulation of the Atmosphere 172
3. The Poleward Expansion of the Tropical Circulation 174
4. The Decreasing Intensity of the Tropical Circulation 180
5. Emerging Mechanisms 180
6. Connection to Extratropical Circulation Change 184
7. Outstanding Problems and Conclusions 185
Acknowledgments 186
Appendix: List of Abbreviations 187
References 187
Chapter 8: Weather Pattern Changes in the Tropics and Mid-Latitudes as an Indicator of Global Changes 190
1. Introduction 190
2. Observed Changes in Extra-Tropical Patterns 191
3. Changes in Tropical Patterns 195
4. Conclusion 203
References 204
Chapter 9: Bird Ecology as an Indicator of Climate and Global Change 206
1. Introduction 206
2. Indicators of Change 207
3. Conclusion 218
References 218
Chapter 10: Mammal Ecology as an Indicator of Climate Change 222
1. Introduction: A Primer on Mammal Thermoregulation and Climate Impacts 222
2. Demonstrated Impacts of Climate Change on Mammals 224
3. Linking Time and Space in Mammal Climate Responses 235
Acknowledgements 236
References 236
Chapter 11: Climate Change and Temporal and Spatial Mismatches in Insect Communities 240
1. Introduction 240
2. Direct Effects of Climate Change on Insects 242
3. Host Plant-Mediated Effects on Insects 244
4. Predator-Mediated Effects on Insect Populations 247
5. Climate Change and Insect Pests 250
6. Conclusion 251
Acknowledgements 252
References 252
Chapter 12: Sea Life (Pelagic and Planktonic Ecosystems) as an Indicator of Climate and Global Change 258
1. Pelagic and Planktonic Ecosystems 258
2. Observed Impacts on Pelagic and Planktonic Ecosystems 262
3. Conclusion and Summary of Key Indicators 271
References 273
Chapter 13: Changes in Coral Reef Ecosystems as an Indicator of Climate and Global Change 278
1. Introduction 278
2. Tropical Coral Reef Ecosystems 279
3. The Associated Fauna of Coral Reefs 283
4. Conclusion 285
References 285
Chapter 14: Changes in Marine Biodiversity as an Indicator of Climate Change 288
1. Introduction 288
2. Climate Change and the Oceans 289
3. Effects of Climate Change on Biodiversity 290
4. Cumulative Impacts and Indirect Effects of Climate Change 297
5. Biodiversity as Insurance against Climate Change Impacts 299
6. Conclusions 300
Acknowledgements 301
References 301
Chapter 15: Intertidal Indicators of Climate and Global Change 306
1. Introduction 306
2. Climate Change and Biogeography 308
3. Mechanisms 314
4. Additional impacts of Global Change 316
5. Conclusions 317
Acknowledgements 317
References 317
Chapter 16: Plant Ecology as an Indicator of Climate and Global Change 322
1. Introduction 322
2. Changes in Phenology 324
3. Changes in Distribution 325
4. Community Composition 326
5. Plant Growth 327
6. Conclusions 328
References 329
Chapter 17: The Impact of Climate and Global Change on Crop Production 332
1. Introduction 332
2. Impact on Plant Growth and Reproduction 333
3. Scale of the Problems 338
4. Climate Change Models 339
5. Winners and Losers 340
6. Adaptation 345
References 347
Chapter 18: Rising Sea Levels as an Indicator of Global Change 350
1. Introduction 350
2. Is Sea Level Rising? 350
3. Why Is Sea Level Rising? 353
4. Are Contemporary Rates of Sea-Level Rise Unusual? 358
5. Conclusion 359
Acknowledgement 359
References 359
Chapter 19: Sea Temperature Change as an Indicator of Global Change 362
1. Introduction: Role of Ocean, Mechanisms and Correction of Bias 362
2. Long-term Trends in Sea Temperature: The Historical Context 366
3. Global and Regional Patterns of Sea Temperature over the Last 100-150 Years 368
4. Conclusion: Anthropogenic Influence 370
References 371
Chapter 20: Ocean Current Changes as an Indicator of Global Change 374
1. Introduction 374
2. The Variable Ocean 375
3. Oceanographers' Tools 376
4. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation 378
5. The AMOC's Role in Heat Transport, Oceanic Uptake of Carbon and Ventilation of the Deep Ocean 382
6. Can We Detect Changes in the AMOC? Is the AMOC Changing Already? 386
7. Conclusion 387
References 389
Chapter 21: Ocean Acidification as an Indicator for Climate Change 392
1. Introduction 392
2. Evidence from Observations 395
3. Model Predictions of Future Change 399
4. Impacts 399
5. Biogeochemical Cycling and Feedback to Climate 406
6. Adaptation, Recovery and Mitigation 408
7. Conclusion 410
References 412
Chapter 22: Ice Sheets: Indicators and Instruments of Climate Change 416
1. Introduction 416
2. Sea-Level and Ice 416
3. How Ice Sheets Work 419
4. Summary 423
References 424
Chapter 23: Lichens as an Indicator of Climate and Global Change 426
1. Introduction 426
2. Predicted Effects 427
3. Observed Effects 427
4. Uncertain Effects 428
5. Habitats with Vulnerable Lichens 430
6. Conclusion 432
Acknowledgement 432
References 433
Chapter 24: Coastline Degradation as an Indicator of Global Change 434
1. Introduction 434
2. Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Systems 436
3. Climate Change and Global/Relative Sea-Level Rise 437
4. Increasing Human Utilisation of the Coastal Zone 438
5. Climate Change, Sea-Level Rise and Resulting Impacts 440
6. Recent Impacts of Sea-Level Rise and Climate Change 441
7. Global Warming and Coasts at Latitudinal Extremes 443
8. The Challenge to Understand Contemporary Impacts 445
9. Concluding Remarks 446
Acknowledgements 447
References 447
Chapter 25: Plant Pathogens as Indicators of Climate Change 450
1. Introduction 450
2. Climatic Variables and Plant Disease 451
3. Evidence that Simulated Climate Change Affects Plant Disease in Experiments 455
4. Evidence that Plant Disease Patterns have Changed due to Climate Change 456
Acknowledgements 460
References 461
Index 464
Color Plate 470