Nested Games of External Democracy Promotion (eBook)

Dr. Rainer Thiel received his PhD from Freie Universität Berlin and is currently a Research Consultant at empirica Communication and Technology Research in Bonn.

Acknowledgements 5
Contents 7
List of Figures and Tables 12
List of Abbreviations and Acronyms 13
1 Regime Transitions and External Democracy Promotion 15
1.1 Research Design and Summary of the Argument 16
1.2 The Nested Games Model 19
1.3 Central Contribution 24
1.4 Outline 31
2 The International Dimension of Regime Change 33
2.1 Domestic Causes of Regime Transitions 34
2.2 International Framework 37
2.2.1 The Internationalist Argument 38
2.2.2 Outside Conditions: Diffusion Effects, Contagion and Socialization 41
2.3 External Democracy Promotion 43
2.3.1 Strategies, Instruments and Targets 43
2.3.2 Democracy Promotion versus Democracy Protection 48
2.4 Quantifying International Factors 50
2.5 Democratization and International Relations Theories 52
2.5.1 International Organizations and Domestic Politics 52
2.5.2 Uncertainty and Crises: Deterring Authoritarian Repression 56
3 Strategic Transitions 60
3.1 The Positional School 61
3.1.1 Transition Politics as Rational Choice 61
3.1.2 Formal Theories of Democratization 65
3.1.3 A Question of Life and Death? Uncertainty about Government Repression 71
3.2 Transitions as Distributional Conflict: The Economic School 75
3.3 Rationality and Democratization Actors 77
3.3.1 Why Game Theory? 77
3.3.2 Rationality and its Critiques 80
3.3.3 Limitations 83
4 Nested Games of External Influence on Strategic Regime Transition 87
4.1 Modeling the International Dimension 88
4.1.1 Internal-External Linkages: Scope of Theory and Analysis 88
4.1.2 Constructing Games 92
4.1.3 Basic Assumptions of the Nested Games Approach 96
4.2 Regime, Opposition, and Foreign Power 102
4.2.1 Principal Arena I: Game of Transition 102
4.2.2 Principal Arena II: Outcomes 108
4.2.3 International Arena I: Foreign Pressure Game 113
4.2.4 International Arena II: Outcomes 118
4.3 Nested Games of Transition and Foreign Pressure 126
4.3.1 Formalization 126
4.3.2 Discussion and Interpretation 134
4.4 The Model’s Implications and Generating of Hypotheses 142
4.4.1 Preference Change of the Regime 143
4.4.2 Weighing the Games 145
4.4.3 Temporal Dimension 149
4.4.4 Impact on the Opposition and the Democracy Promotion Dilemma 150
4.4.5 Summary 154
5 Methodology 157
5.1 Empirical Research Design 157
5.2 Case Selection 163
5.3 Data Basis 168
5.4 Structure of the Empirical Part 172
6 U.S. Democracy Assistance in the Polish Liberalization Process, 1980-1989 175
6.1 The United States Policy Toward Poland 176
6.2 Poland’s Path to the Round Table Negotiations 181
6.2.1 The Birth of Solidarity, Strikes, and Martial Law, 1980-1981 181
6.2.2 Underground and Ostensible Stability, 1982-1988 183
6.2.3 Induction and Negotiations of the Round Table, 1988-1989 188
6.3 Supporting Solidarity 190
6.3.1 Sustaining the Underground 191
6.3.2 Communications and Propaganda 195
6.3.3 The Logistics of External Influence 198
6.3.4 Advice and Influence on Opposition Strategy 202
6.3.5 How to Elect Jaruzelski without Voting for him? 208
6.4 Pressuring the Jaruzelski Regime 212
6.4.1 Sanctions as Policy Instrument 212
6.4.2 The Post-Martial Law Sanctions Regime 215
6.5 Sub-Actors and Mechanisms of Democracy Promotion in Poland 218
6.5.1 National Endowment for Democracy 218
6.5.2 Waging Underground Political Warfare: The CIA 223
6.5.3 A Foreign Service of Its Own: The AFL-CIO 226
6.5.4 Department of State and USIA 229
7 Correspondence between Theory and Facts 232
7.1 Effect on Communist Regime 232
7.2 Effect on Solidarity 237
7.2.1 Professionalizing the Underground 238
7.2.2 Underground Press 239
7.2.3 Morale Boosting 241
7.3 Costs of Repression 245
7.3.1 Impact of Opposition Assistance on the Regime’s Cost Structure 245
7.3.2 Timeline: Nested Costs of Authoritarianism 248
7.4 Strategy Shifts and Trajectories of External Influence 250
7.4.1 Repression 1981 252
7.4.2 Opening 1986 252
7.4.3 Negotiations 1988/1989 255
7.4.4 The Juncture of Jaruzelski’s Election to President in 1989 257
8 Conclusion 259
8.1 Democracy Promotion as Nested Games 260
8.2 Key Implications for External Democracy Promotion 265
8.3 Future Research 269
Bibliography 275
Appendix 1: Derivations Repeated Play of Non-nested Games 304
Appendix 2: Derivations of Nested Game with Varying Frequencies 307
Appendix 3: List of Interviews 309