Apocalypse When? (eBook)
212 Seiten
Springer New York (Verlag)
978-0-387-09837-1 (ISBN)
This book will be a key trailblazer in a new and upcoming field. The author's predictive approach relies on simple and intuitive probability formulations that will appeal to readers with a modest knowledge of astronomy, mathematics, and statistics. Wells' carefully erected theory stands on a sure footing and thus should serve as the basis of many rational predictions of survival in the face of not only natural disasters such as hits by asteroids or comets, but perhaps more surprisingly from man-made hazards arising from genetic engineering or robotics.
Any formula for predicting human survival will invite controversy. Dr Wells counters anticipated criticism with a thorough approach in which four lines of reasoning are used to arrive at the same survival formula. One uses empirical survival statistics for business firms and stage shows. Another is based on uncertainty of risk rates. The third, more abstract, invokes Laplace's principle of insufficient reason and involves an observer's random arrival in the lifetime of the entity (the human race) in question. The fourth uses Bayesian theory.
The author carefully explains and gives examples of the conditions under which his principle is valid and provides evidence that can counteract the arguments of critics who would reject it entirely. His deflection of possible criticisms results from two major premises: selecting the proper random variable and 'reference class' to make predictions, and the recognition that if one does not know the law that governs a process, then the best prediction that can be made is his own formula.
This book will be a key trailblazer in a new and upcoming field. The author's predictive approach relies on simple and intuitive probability formulations that will appeal to readers with a modest knowledge of astronomy, mathematics, and statistics. Wells' carefully erected theory stands on a sure footing and thus should serve as the basis of many rational predictions of survival in the face of not only natural disasters such as hits by asteroids or comets, but perhaps more surprisingly from man-made hazards arising from genetic engineering or robotics.Any formula for predicting human survival will invite controversy. Dr Wells counters anticipated criticism with a thorough approach in which four lines of reasoning are used to arrive at the same survival formula. One uses empirical survival statistics for business firms and stage shows. Another is based on uncertainty of risk rates. The third, more abstract, invokes Laplace s principle of insufficient reason and involves an observer s random arrival in the lifetime of the entity (the human race) in question. The fourth uses Bayesian theory.The author carefully explains and gives examples of the conditions under which his principle is valid and provides evidence that can counteract the arguments of critics who would reject it entirely. His deflection of possible criticisms results from two major premises: selecting the proper random variable and reference class to make predictions, and the recognition that if one does not know the law that governs a process, then the best prediction that can be made is his own formula.
Table of contents
5
Preface
9
Acknowledgments
12
Figures
13
Pictures
14
Tables
16
Algebraic symbols
17
Abbreviations and acronym
19
About the author
20
Introduction
21
1 Formulation
30
1.1 MULTIPLE HAZARD RATES
33
1.2 PROBABLITY THEORY: A QUICK REVIEW
37
1.3 CHANGING HAZARD RATES
39
1.4 POSTERIOR PROBABILITY
40
1.5 PRINCIPLE OF INDIFFERENCE
44
1.6 CUMULATIVE RISK
53
2 Confirmation
58
2.1 BAYES' THEORY
58
2.2 STATISTICS OF BUSINESS FIRMS
60
2.3 STATISTICS OF STAGE PRODUCTIONS
64
2.4 LONGEVITY RANK
71
2.5 UNIVARIATE SUMMARY
72
3 Double jeopardy
75
3.1 A PARADOX
75
3.2 FORMULATION
76
3.3 AN EXAMPLE
79
3.4 LOGIC DIAGRAM
82
3.5 FURTURE RESEARCH
83
4 Human survivability
85
4.1 FORMULATION
87
4.2 HAZARDOUS DEVELOPMENT
91
4.3 PREDICTOR FORMULATION
99
4.4 SURVIVABILITY OF CIVILIZATION
102
4.5 SURVIVABILITY OFTHE HUMAN RACE
104
4.6 SUMMARY AND CURRENT HAZARD RATES
107
4.7 BIASES
109
5 Apocalypse how?
111
5.1 SCENARIOS FOR EXTINCTION
112
5.2 WILD CARDS
123
5.3 OVERRATED NATURAL HAZARDS
130
5.4 TRIAGE
132
5.5 REFLECTIONS ON THIS STUDY
134
5.6 PROSPECTS FOR A SAFER WORLD
135
5.7 SYSTEMIC STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
138
5.8 SECOND CHANCE?
141
5.9 SURVIVAL HABITAT
143
Appendix A Survival formula derived from hazard rates
147
A.1 VARIABLE HAZARD RATE
149
A.2 UNKNOWN VULBNERABILITY
150
Appendix B Posterior survivalitity
152
Appendix C Infinite mean duration
154
Appendix D Survival predictor from Bayes' theory
156
D.1 ADVANCE KNOWLEDGE
159
D.2 NONINFORMATIVE PRIOR PROBABILITY
162
Appendix E Stage productions running on specified dates
163
Appendix F Extinction rates of prehistoric taxa
175
Appendix G Disaggregated mortality
178
Appendix H Stage productions with dual cum-risks
181
Appendix I Overall plan for survivability calculation
201
Appendix J Multiple hazards
203
Appendix K Cum-risks for mam-made hazards
206
Appendix L Statistical wieghts for types of hazard
210
Appendix M Extinxtion thwatered by civilizations' collapse
212
Appendix N Initial hazard rates
215
References
217
Index
221
| Erscheint lt. Verlag | 26.3.2010 |
|---|---|
| Sprache | englisch |
| Themenwelt | Mathematik / Informatik ► Mathematik ► Statistik |
| Naturwissenschaften ► Physik / Astronomie ► Astronomie / Astrophysik | |
| Sozialwissenschaften ► Politik / Verwaltung | |
| Technik | |
| ISBN-10 | 0-387-09837-2 / 0387098372 |
| ISBN-13 | 978-0-387-09837-1 / 9780387098371 |
| Haben Sie eine Frage zum Produkt? |
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