Causal Analysis in Population Studies (eBook)

Contents 6
Contributors 8
Causal Analysis in Population Studies 10
1.1 Introduction 10
1.2 Structure of the Volume 13
References 16
Issues in the Estimation of Causal Effects in Population Research, with an Application to the Effects of Teenage Childbearing 17
2.1 Introduction 17
2.2 The Basic Causal Model 18
2.3 Instrumental Variables 21
2.4 Types of Instrumental Variables 26
2.5 Additional Issues 31
2.6 Summary and Conclusions 35
References 36
Sequential Potential Outcome Models to Analyze the Effects of Fertility on Labor Market Outcomes 38
3.1 Introduction 38
3.2 The Dynamic Causal Model - Notation, Effects, and Identification 41
3.3 Estimation 46
3.4 Specifying Causal Parameters of Interest 52
3.5 Data 54
3.6 Estimation Results 57
3.7 Conclusions 59
References 62
Structural Modelling, Exogeneity, and Causality 65
4.1 Causal Analysis in the Social Sciences 65
4.2 Structural Modelling 70
4.3 Conditional Models, Exogeneity and Causality 73
4.4 Confounding, Complex Systems and Completely Recursive Systems 77
4.5 Partial Observability and Latent Variables 82
4.6 Discussion and Conclusion 85
References 87
Causation as a Generative Process. The Elaboration of an Idea for the Social Sciences and an Application to an Analysis of an Interdependent Dynamic Social System 89
5.1 Introduction 89
5.2 Models of Causal Inference 90
5.3 Parallel and Interdependent Processes 94
5.4 An Application Example 103
5.5 Substantial Explanations 106
5.6 Summary and Concluding Remarks 111
References 112
Instrumental Variable Estimation for Duration Data 116
6.1 Introduction 116
6.2 Endogenous Covariates in Duration Models 119
6.3 Instrumental Variable Linear Rank Estimation 125
6.4 Application to the Illinois Re-employment Bonus Experiment 131
6.5 Conclusion 138
References 140
Appendix 1: Identification of the GAFT Model 141
Appendix 2: Counting Process Interpretation 143
Appendix 3 Asymptotic Properties of the IVLR 146
Appendix 4 Additional Tables for the IVLR of Reemployment Bonus Experiment 150
Female Labour Participation with Concurrent Demographic Processes: An Estimation for Italy 154
7.1 Introduction 154
7.2 Background 154
7.3 Model Specification: Theoretical and Methodological Issues 156
7.4 The Data 163
7.5 Results 164
7.6 Discussion 166
References 169
New Estimates on the Effect of Parental Separation on Child Health 171
8.1 Introduction 171
8.2 Background 173
8.3 Statistical Framework and Estimation Strategy 175
8.4 Data, Sample, and Descriptive Evidence 182
8.5 Estimation Results 187
8.6 Conclusion 196
References 198
Appendix 202
Assessing the Causal Effect of Childbearing on Household Income in Albania 204
9.1 Introduction 204
9.2 The Albanian Background 206
9.3 The Albania Living Standards Measurement Study 207
9.4 A Measure of Well-Being 208
9.5 Descriptive Statistics 212
9.6 Identifying the Causal Effect of a New Birth 214
9.7 Results 220
9.8 Conclusions 232
References 233
Causation and Its Discontents 235
References 241
Index 245