Forecasting Models for the German Office Market (eBook)

Dr. Alexander Bönner promovierte bei Prof. Dr. Pascal Gantenbein am Schweizerischen Institut für Banken und Finanzen an der Universität St. Gallen (Schweiz). Er ist als wissenschaftlicher Assistent am Lehrstuhl für Finanzwirtschaft der St. Gallen bei Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Klaus Spremann tätig.

Acknowledgements 6
Contents 7
Summary 10
Summary (German) 11
List of Tables 12
List of Graphs 14
List of Abbreviations 17
1. Introduction 19
1.1. General Motivation 19
1.2. Research Questions 20
1.3. Outline of the dissertation 21
2. Literature Review 23
2.1. Multivariate regression models 23
2.2. Univariate models 26
2.3. VAR and VEC models 28
3. Theoretical Foundations 30
3.1. General real estate market characteristics 30
3.2. Specifics of time series and panel data 36
3.3. Theoretical fundamentals of common forecasting models 39
3.4. Forecasting techniques and forecasting performance measures 50
4. Design of the empirical study 54
4.1. Research hypotheses 54
4.2. Research methodology 56
4.3. Data 59
5. Empirical results: Rent forecasting 63
5.1. Univariate models 63
5.2. Multivariate regression models 89
5.3. Comparison of univariate and multivariate models 104
5.4. Long-run forecasting models 114
5.5. Chapter Conclusion 122
6. Empirical results: Total yield forecasting 126
6.1. Total yield series analysis 126
6.2. Multivariate models 135
6.3. Long-run forecasting models 149
6.4. Chapter Conclusion 158
7. Conclusion 160
7.1. Summary of findings 160
7.2. Implications for practice 162
7.3. Research Outlook 163
Appendix 165
References 185