The Future of Risk Management

Howard Kunreuther is the James G. Dinan Professor Emeritus of Decision Sciences and Public Policy and Co-Director of the Risk Management and Decision Processes Center at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. He is coeditor of On Risk and Disaster: Lessons from Hurricane Katrina, also available from the University of Pennsylvania Press. Robert J. Meyer is the Frederick H. Ecker/MetLife Insurance Professor of Marketing and Co-Director of the Risk Management and Decision Processes Center at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan is a partner at McKinsey and Company. He was formerly Executive Director of the Risk Management and Decision Processes Center at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.

Introduction

—Howard Kunreuther, Robert J. Meyer, and Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan

PART I. BEHAVIORAL FACTORS INFLUENCING DECISION-MAKING UNDER RISK AND UNCERTAINTY

Chapter 1. The Arithmetic of Compassion and the Future of Risk Management

—Paul Slovic and Daniel Västfjäll

Chapter 2. "Risk as Feelings" and "Perception Matters": Psychological Contributions on Risk, Risk-Taking, and Risk Management

—Elke U. Weber

Chapter 3. Risk-Based Thinking

—Baruch Fischhoff

Chapter 4. Structured Empirical Analysis of Decisions Under Natural Hazard Risk

—Craig E. Landry, Gregory Colson, and Mona Ahmadiani

Chapter 5. Mixing Rationality and Irrationality in Insurance Demand and Supply

—Mark Pauly

Chapter 6. The Disaster Cycle: What We Do Not Learn from Experience

—Robert J. Meyer

PART II. IMPROVING RISK ASSESSMENT

Chapter 7. Using Models to Set a Baseline and Measure Progress in Reducing Disaster Casualties

—Robert Muir-Wood

Chapter 8. Learning from All Types of Near-Misses

—Robin Dillon

Chapter 9. Managing Systemic Industry Risk: The Need for Collective Leadership

—Paul J. H. Schoemaker

Chapter 10. Measuring Economic Resilience: Recent Advances and Future Priorities

—Adam Rose

PART III. DEVELOPING BETTER RISK COMMUNICATION STRATEGIES

Chapter 11. Improving Stakeholder Engagement for Upstream Risks

—Robin Gregory and Nate Dieckmann

Chapter 12. Improving the Accuracy of Geopolitical Risk Assessments

—Barbara A. Mellers, Philip E. Tetlock, Joshua D. Baker, Jeffrey A. Friedman, and Richard Zeckhauser

Chapter 13. Efficient Warnings, Not "Wolf or Puppy" Warnings

—Lisa A. Robinson, W. Kip Viscusi, and Richard Zeckhauser

PART IV. ROLE OF RISK MITIGATION, RISK-SHARING, AND INSURANCE

Chapter 14. Threats to Insurability

—Carolyn Kousky

Chapter 15. The Role of Insurance in Risk Management for Natural Disasters: Back to the Future

—Howard Kunreuther

Chapter 16. Improving Individual Flood Preparedness Through Insurance Incentives

—W. J. Wouter Botzen

Chapter 17. Strong and Well-Enforced Building Codes as an Effective Disaster Risk Reduction Tool: An Evaluation

—Jeffrey Czajkowski

PART V. GOVERNMENT AND RISK MANAGEMENT

Chapter 18. Getting the Blend Right: Public-Private Partnerships in Risk Management

—Cary Coglianese

Chapter 19. The Regulation of Insurance Markets Subject to Catastrophic Risks

—Robert W. Klein

Chapter 20. Rethinking Government Disaster Relief in the United States: Evidence and a Way Forward

—Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan

List of Contributors

Index