Resources Society and the Future (eBook)

Front Cover 1
Resources Society and the Future 4
Copyright Page 5
Table of Contents 6
Foreword 9
Preface 10
Chapter 1. Motives for a Futures Study of Resources and Raw Materials 12
Introduction 12
Background to the study of resources and raw materials 15
History of a debate 19
Chapter 2. Resources and Raw Materials Defined 22
Introduction 22
The physical foundations of the resource concept 23
The Classification of Natural Resources 28
Cognitive foundations of the resource concept 29
Resources and Mineral Reserves 30
Raw materials 36
Measuring the importance of raw materials 36
Raw Materials - Value 40
Distribution - an Important Basis of Assessment 45
International Dependence 47
Qualitative Aspects and the Importance of Raw Materials 48
Chapter 3. Global Demand 50
Introduction 50
Forecasting demand for raw materials 51
Population development 55
GNP growth 56
Demand for raw materials 60
Summary 65
Chapter 4. Global Supply 67
Agriculture 67
Forestry 73
Fisheries 76
Minerals 77
Growing Energy and Pollution Problems 80
Increasing Difficulties in Mobilizing Reserves 84
Interstate Cartels 85
Political Events 87
Summary 88
Chapter 5. Resources in a Long-term Perspective 91
Introduction 91
Time perspectives 91
Foodstuffs Per Capita 95
Natural Resources 95
Pollution 98
Will technical solutions be found? 100
What Sort of Technology? 101
Costs 102
System Sensitivity as a Cost 103
Costs in the Form of the Conceivable Impact of Technology on Social and Economic Structure 104
Costs in the Form of Reduced Quality of Life 104
Chapter 6. Sweden and Raw Materials 107
Sweden's raw material profile 107
Two perspectives on Sweden in around 1990 112
Alternative World Environments 113
Some long-term factors with a bearing in demand for raw materials 115
Environmental Consideration 118
Will Sweden's raw materials supplies be adequate? 119
Energy and Raw Materials 119
The Environment and the Supply of Raw Materials 120
Imports of Raw Materials 121
Chapter 7. Aims and Means of a Raw Materials Policy 123
Introduction 123
Raw Materials Policy and Priorities 124
Resource Restrictions 125
The Dominant Economic Goals and Raw Materials Policy 127
Raw Materials Policy and Goals Differing from those Traditionally Dominant 128
Instruments of raw materials policy 134
Measures to Reduce the Use of Scarce Raw Materials 135
Measures to Increase the supply of Raw materials 140
Measures to Secure Supplies 142
Summary 149
Appendix 1. The Secretariat for Futures Studies - Organization 151
Background 151
Projects 151
Project Groups 152
Appendix 2. Interim reports and other background material compiled in thecourse of the Resources and Raw Materials study 153
Interim reports 154
Appendix 3a. Politics and raw materials in an international perspective Summary of a study by Tomas Bertelman 157
1. A historical perspective 157
2. The 1970s 161
3. The nature of the dependence of the industrialized countries 167
4. The effects of wastefulness and conservation 170
5. Sweden's role 173
Appendix 3b. Non-renewable raw materials 176
About the Study 177
Minerals - whence and whither? 177
Consumption Forecasts: Uncertain Yesterday and Perhaps even less Certain Today 180
Shortages of Individual Metals? 181
Shortages of industrial minerals? 182
Shortage of Non-Fuel Mineral Products 182
Appendix 3c. The substitution of resources 186
Introduction 186
What is Substitution 186
Degrees of interchangeability 187
Different types and levels of substitution 188
Great economic flexibility - some of the findings 188
Present-day pricing mechanism not good enough 188
Technical interchangeability - a question of new functional solutions 189
Shift in the pressure on resources 189
Are substitution processes similar? 189
substitution- the long-term method of overcoming a scarcity of resources 190
Appendix 4 — Statistics 192
Appendix 5. List of Figures and Tables 199
Figures 199
Tables 200
Figures 201
Subject Index 202