Analysing and Aiding Decision Processes (eBook)

Front Cover 1
Analysing and Aiding Decision Processes 4
Copyright Page 5
Table of Contents 6
Preface 10
Acknowledgements 12
Section 1: SOCIETAL DECISION MAKING 14
Chapter 1. Introduction 16
Chapter 2. Evaluation of Mortality Risks for Institutional Decisions 24
Chapter 3. The Role of Risk Assessment in a Political Decision Process 40
Chapter 4. A Multi-Attribute Multi-Party Model of Choice: Descriptive and Prescriptive Considerations 70
Chapter 5. The Role of Decision Analysis in International Nuclear Safeguards 92
Chapter 6. A Decision Analytic System for Regulating Quality of Care in Nursing Homes: System Design and Evaluation 106
Section II: ORGANIZATIONAL DECISION MAKING 122
Chapter 7. Introduction 124
Chapter 8. Systems Analysis and Decision Making 126
Chapter 9. Applying Decision Analysis in an Organisational Context 146
Chapter 10. Pitfalls of Decision Analysis 168
Chapter 11. Decision Analysis of Industrial R & D Problems: Pitfalls and Lessons
Section III: AIDING THE STRUCTURING OF SMALL SCALE DECISION PROBLEMS 198
Chapter 12. Introduction 200
Chapter 13. Human Engineering of Decision Aids 206
Chapter 14. The Role of the Goal for Generating Actions 224
Chapter 15. Fuzzy Structural Modelling—An Aid for Decision Making 238
Chapter 16. Use of Problem Structuring Techniques for Option Generation: A Computer Choice Case Study 254
Chapter 17. Non-Expert Use of a Computerized Decision Aid 282
Chapter 18. The Quality and User Acceptance of Multiattribute Utility Analysis Performed by Computer and Analyst 302
Chapter 19. Interdependence Between Problem Structuring and Attribute Weighting in Transitional Decision Problems 322
Section IV: TRACING DECISION PROCESSES 336
Chapter 20. Introduction 338
Chapter 21. Decision Rules and the Search for a Dominance Structure: Towards a Process Model of Decision Making 344
Chapter 22. Scaling Evaluative Statements in Verbal Protocols from Decision Processes 372
Chapter 23. To Smoke or Not To Smoke: Conflict or Lack of Differentiation? 384
Chapter 24. Analysis of Predecisional Information Search Patterns 402
Chapter 25. Reasons Given for Risky Judgment and Choice: A Comparison of Three Tasks 416
Chapter 26. The Reliability and Validity of Concurrent, Retrospective, and Interpretive Verbal Reports: An Experi- mental Study 430
Chapter 27. The Information Presented and Actually Processed in a Decision Task 442
Chapter 28. The Role of Second-Order Probabilities in Decision Making 456
Chapter 29. The Effect of Base Rate on Calibration of Subjective Probability for True–False Questions: Model and Experiment 470
Chapter 30. The Surprisingness of Coincidences 490
Section V: A SYMPOSIUM ON THE VALIDITY OF STUDIES ON HEURISTICS AND BIASES 504
Chapter 31. Introduction 506
Chapter 32. Human Cognitive Capabilities, Representativeness, and Ground Rules for Research 508
Chapter 33. Reconstructive Criticism 516
Chapter 34. A Theoretical Perspective on Heuristics and Biases in Probabilistic Thinking 526
Author Index 546
Subject lndex 554