Palgrave Handbook of Climate History (eBook)

Sam White is Associate Professor of Environmental History at the Ohio State University, USA and author of the award-winning book The Climate of Rebellion in the Early Modern Ottoman Empire (2011), among other publications. He is also co-founder and director of the Climate History Network.Christian Pfister is Professor Emeritus and Senior Researcher at the Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of Bern, Switzerland. He has published 11 books and more than 200 articles. He is co-founder of the European Society for Environmental History (ESEH).Franz Mauelshagen is a Senior Fellow at the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies in Potsdam, Germany. He has published several books, including the award-winning Wunderkammer auf Papier (A Cabinet of Curiosities on Paper, 2011), and more than 50 articles on the history of science, disasters, climate, and the Anthropocene. 

Contents 5
List of Contributors 16
List of Figures 20
List of Tables 24
Chapter 1: General Introduction: Weather, Climate, and Human History 25
1.1 Climate History and Historical Climatology 26
1.2 Methodological and Conceptual Challenges 27
1.3 Background 30
1.4 New Influences: Environmental History, Globalization, and Global Warming 34
1.5 Prospects 35
1.6 A Guide to this Handbook 37
Bibliography 39
Part I: Reconstruction 42
Chapter 2: The Global Climate System 43
References 48
Chapter 3: Archives of Nature and Archives of Societies 49
3.1 Introduction 49
3.2 The Archives of Nature 50
3.3 The Archives of Societies 52
3.4 Reconstructing Past Climate from Proxies 52
3.5 Conclusion: Combining the Archives of Nature and Society 57
References 57
Chapter 4: Evidence from the Archives of Societies: Documentary Evidence—Overview 59
4.1 Introduction 59
4.2 Institutional Sources 60
4.3 Personal Sources 61
4.4 Dating 64
References 67
Chapter 5: Evidence from the Archives of Societies: Personal Documentary Sources 70
5.1 Introduction 70
5.2 The Objectivity of Weather Narratives 71
5.3 (Weather) Chronicles 72
5.4 (Weather-Related) Pamphlets and Broadsides 72
5.5 (Weather) Diaries 74
5.6 (Personal) Plant-Phenological Observations 79
5.7 (Personal) Ice-Phenological Data 80
References 83
Chapter 6: Evidence from the Archives of Societies: Institutional Sources 87
6.1 Introduction 87
6.2 Agricultural Phenological Series 88
6.3 Municipal Accounts 92
6.4 Hydrological and Ice-Phenological Series 92
6.5 Rogation Ceremonies 95
6.6 Ships’ Logbooks 95
6.7 Mandatory Reporting 96
References 99
Chapter 7: Evidence from the Archives of Societies: Early Instrumental Observations 102
7.1 Introduction 102
7.2 Early Temperature Observations 103
7.3 Early Pressure Observations 104
7.4 Early Precipitation Observations 105
7.5 Early Meteorological Networks 107
7.6 Conclusion 108
References 109
Chapter 8: Evidence from the Archives of Societies: Historical Sources in Glaciology 112
References 115
Chapter 9: Analysis and Interpretation: Homogenization of Instrumental Data 117
9.1 Why Do We Need to Homogenize Instrumental Data? 117
9.2 The Practice of Homogenization 118
9.3 An Example from the European Alpine Region 121
9.4 Conclusion 123
References 123
Chapter 10: Analysis and Interpretation: Calibration-­Verification 124
10.1 Introduction 124
10.2 Establishing Documentary-Based Series 124
10.3 The Practice of Calibration 126
References 129
Chapter 11: Analysis and Interpretation: Temperature and Precipitation Indices 131
11.1 Introduction 131
11.2 History of the Index Approach 132
11.3 The Structure of Documentary-Based Temperature and Precipitation Indices 133
11.4 Guidelines for Generating Indices 136
11.5 Shortcomings and Uncertainties 138
11.6 Evaluations and Results 139
11.7 Applications 140
References 144
Chapter 12: Analysis and Interpretation: Spatial Climate Field Reconstructions 146
12.1 Introduction 146
12.2 Concepts 146
12.3 Applications 147
12.4 Uncertainties 150
12.5 CFR Methods and Climate Models 150
References 151
Chapter 13: Analysis and Interpretation: Modeling of Past Climates 155
13.1 Introduction 155
13.2 How Models Work 155
13.3 Examples and Regional Simulations 158
13.4 Conclusion 161
References 162
Chapter 14: The Denial of Global Warming 163
14.1 Introduction 163
14.2 The USA (adapted from Merchants of Doubt) 164
14.3 The George C. Marshall Institute 164
14.4 Discrediting Ben Santer, Derailing Rio 166
14.5 How Disinformation Took Hold 173
14.6 The Debate in Europe 175
14.7 The Debate in Australia 178
14.8 Conclusion 179
References 182
Part II: Historical Climatology: Periods and Regions 186
Chapter 15: The Holocene 187
15.1 Introduction 187
15.2 The Early Holocene 187
15.3 Middle Holocene 190
15.4 Late Holocene 190
Bibliography 193
Chapter 16: Mediterranean Antiquity 195
16.1 Introduction 195
16.2 Narrative 195
16.3 Problems and Conclusion 197
References 199
Chapter 17: China: 2000 Years of Climate Reconstruction from Historical Documents 201
17.1 Introduction 201
17.2 Sources of Documentary Evidence 202
17.3 Types of Documentary Evidence 205
17.4 Temperature Reconstructions 206
17.5 Precipitation Reconstructions 208
17.6 Extreme Events 209
17.7 Climate Change Impacts 211
References 212
Chapter 18: Climate History of Asia (Excluding China) 214
18.1 Introduction 214
18.2 Arabia and West Asia 215
18.3 The Indian Subcontinent 216
18.4 Japan and Korea 216
18.5 Southeast Asia and Indonesia 218
18.6 Siberia and Central Asia 219
18.7 Conclusion 219
References 220
Chapter 19: Climate History in Latin America 223
19.1 Pre-Colonial Records 223
19.2 Colonial and Modern Records 224
19.3 The Development of Climate History in Latin America 227
19.4 Studies of Climate Forcings 228
19.4.1 El Niño Southern Oscillation, Droughts, and Floods 228
19.4.2 Caribbean Cyclones 228
19.4.3 Ship Logs, Maritime Climate, and Southern Glaciers 228
19.4.4 Hydroclimatic Variability in South America 229
19.5 Conclusion 230
References 231
Chapter 20: A Multi-Century History of Drought and Wetter Conditions in Africa 235
20.1 Introduction 235
20.2 Multi-Century Drought Chronologies 236
20.2.1 Equatorial Regions 236
20.2.2 Sahelian West Africa 239
20.2.3 Southern Africa 239
20.2.4 Extratropical Margins 239
20.3 The Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries 240
20.4 Summary 241
References 244
Chapter 21: Recent Developments in Australian Climate History 247
21.1 Introduction 247
21.2 The South Eastern Australian Recent Climate History Project 249
21.3 Australian Droughts, 1788–1899 251
21.4 Australian Wet Periods, 1788–1899 251
21.5 Conclusion 252
References 253
Chapter 22: European Middle Ages 256
22.1 Introduction 256
22.2 The State of the Field 257
22.3 Evidence 259
22.3.1 Narrative Sources 260
22.3.2 Administrative Sources 261
22.4 Methods 261
22.4.1 Dating 261
22.4.2 Indices 262
22.4.3 Phenological Series 262
22.5 Results 263
22.5.1 Before the Medieval Warm Period, or 500–1000 263
22.5.2 The Medieval Warm Period, or 1000–1300 263
22.5.3 After the Medieval Warm Period, or 1300–1500 264
22.6 Conclusion 264
Bibliography 267
Chapter 23: Early Modern Europe 273
23.1 Introduction 273
23.2 Geography 274
23.3 History and Periodization 275
23.4 Evidence 277
23.5 Climatic Variations and Extremes 281
23.5.1 European Temperature 281
23.5.2 Northern Europe 283
23.5.3 Western and Central Europe 284
23.5.4 The Mediterranean and Eastern Europe 289
23.6 Conclusion 291
References 295
Chapter 24: North American Climate History (1500–1800) 304
24.1 Introduction 304
24.2 Geography, Climate, and Context 304
24.3 Sources 306
24.4 Climatic Trends and Events 308
24.5 Early Colonial Weather 309
24.6 The Maunder Minimum 310
24.7 Revolutionary Weather: The 1770s–90s 310
24.8 Conclusion 311
References 312
Chapter 25: Climate from 1800 to 1970 in North America and Europe 316
25.1 Introduction 316
25.2 Data 316
25.3 Climate Trends 319
25.4 Climate Events 320
25.4.1 The Tambora Eruption and the “Year Without a Summer” of 1816 320
25.4.2 The 1830s Climate Cooling and Glacier Advances around 1850 320
25.4.3 The Early Twentieth-Century Warming 322
25.4.4 The “Dust Bowl” Droughts in North America in the 1930s 322
25.4.5 Climatic Anomalies in 1940–2 323
25.4.6 Retraction of the Northern Tropical Edge after 1945 324
References 325
Chapter 26: Global Warming (1970–Present) 328
26.1 Climate Data 328
26.2 Climate Trends 329
26.3 Atmospheric Composition Change 332
26.4 Climatic Events 332
26.4.1 The Sahel Droughts of the 1970s and 1980s 332
26.4.2 Change of European Winters around 1990 333
26.4.3 The 1991 Pinatubo Eruption 333
26.4.4 The El Niño Events of 1982–3 and 1997 334
26.4.5 Subtropical Droughts and Mid-Latitude Heatwaves in the New Millennium 334
References 335
Part III: Climate and Society 336
Chapter 27: Climate, Weather, Agriculture, and Food 337
27.1 Introduction 337
27.2 The Role of Climate and Weather in Food Production 338
27.3 Climate Change and the Origins of Agriculture 340
27.4 Climate, Food, and Crisis in the Ancient and Medieval World 341
27.5 The Little Ice Age (LIA) 344
27.6 Beyond the Little Ice Age 350
27.7 Conclusion: Patterns and Lessons 352
References 354
Chapter 28: Climate, Ecology, and Infectious Human Disease 360
28.1 Introduction 360
28.2 Climate Forces and the Ecological Parameters of Disease History 361
28.3 New Pathogens and Centers of Transmission 362
28.4 Processes of Epidemiological Integration 364
28.5 Biomedicine, Emerging Diseases, and Climate Change 366
28.6 Conclusion 367
References 368
Chapter 29: Climate Change and Conflict 371
29.1 Introduction 371
29.2 Climate Change and the Origins of War: Qualitative Approaches 372
29.3 Climate Change and the Origins of War: Quantitative Approaches 376
29.4 Climate Change and the Conduct of War 381
29.5 War and the Causes of Climate Change 383
29.6 Conclusion 384
References 386
Chapter 30: Narrating Indigenous Histories of Climate Change in the Americas and Pacific 390
30.1 Introduction 390
30.2 Scope 391
30.3 The Arctic and Subarctic 392
30.4 Temperate North America 393
30.5 Mexico 398
30.6 South America 400
30.7 Pacific Islands 402
30.8 Indigenous Knowledge and Contemporary Research 404
30.9 Conclusion 405
References 408
Chapter 31: Migration and Climate in World History 415
31.1 Introduction 415
31.2 Climatic Changes and the Peopling of the Earth 416
31.3 Climate and Migration in Early Agrarian Societies 420
31.4 Little Ice Age (LIA) Climate Change and European Emigration to the Americas 423
31.5 Acclimatization, Forced (Labor) Migration, and Resettlement 428
31.6 Global Warming, Displacement, and Climate Refugees 431
31.7 Conclusions 435
References 440
Part IV: Case Studies in Climate Reconstruction and Impacts 447
Chapter 32: The Climate Downturn of 536–50 448
32.1 Introduction 448
32.2 Texts 450
32.3 Tree Rings 453
32.4 Other Proxies 460
32.5 Ice Cores 463
32.6 Origins 464
32.7 Collapse and Resilience 468
32.8 Conclusion 475
References 484
Chapter 33: The 1310s Event 495
33.1 Introduction 495
33.2 The Wider Climatic Context: Transition from the MCA to the LIA 495
33.3 The Weather Anomaly of 1314–16 497
33.4 Agricultural Production Destroyed 498
33.5 From Shortage to Famine 501
33.6 Malnourishment and Mortality: Humans 503
33.7 Malnourishment and Mortality: Animals 504
33.8 Long-Term Impacts 507
33.9 Conclusion 508
References 511
Chapter 34: The 1780s: Global Climate Anomalies, Floods, Droughts, and Famines 516
34.1 Introduction 516
34.2 Reconstructing Global Climate in the 1780s 517
34.3 The Laki Fissure Eruption of 1783 519
34.4 Protracted Episodes: El Niño 1782–84 and La Niña 1785–90 520
34.5 Case Study 1: Famines in India, 1780–1812 522
34.6 Case Study 2: The Influence of Climate on the First European Settlement of Australia, 1788–93 530
34.7 Case Study 3: Regional Events and Impacts during the 1780s in Japan 533
34.8 Case Study 4: Africa (Including Egypt) 535
34.9 Conclusions 539
References 544
Chapter 35: A Year Without a Summer, 1816 550
References 558
Part V: The History of Climate Ideas and Climate Science 561
Chapter 36: Climate as a Scientific Paradigm—Early History of Climatology to 1800 562
36.1 Introduction 562
36.2 The Geographic Tradition of Climates 563
36.3 Mapping Climates 567
36.4 Paradigm Shift 570
36.5 Climate Change and History 575
36.6 Conclusions 578
References 581
Chapter 37: Climate and Empire in the Nineteenth Century 586
37.1 Recording the Colonial Climate 587
37.2 Pathologising the Colonial Climate 588
37.3 Changing Colonial Climates 590
37.4 The Archive of Colonial Climates 591
37.5 Climates of Disaster 593
37.6 Conclusion 594
References 596
Chapter 38: From Climatology to Climate Science in the Twentieth Century 601
38.1 Introduction 601
38.2 “Classical Climatology” and its Expansion 602
38.3 The “Conquest of the Third Dimension” 603
38.4 Investigation of Climatic Changes 605
38.5 Making Climatology a Physical Science: The Physical Understanding of the Atmosphere 606
38.6 The Rise of Atmospheric and Climate Modeling 608
38.7 Data Networks and Satellites: The Observational Revolution 611
38.8 Earth System Analysis 613
38.9 Ice Core Research and Paleoclimatology 615
38.10 Conclusion 616
References 622
Epilogue 629
Glossary 636
Index 640