Making Telecoms Work – From Technical Innovation to Commercial Success

Geoff Varrall joined RTT in 1985 as an executive director and shareholder to develop RTT's international business as a provider of technology and business services to the wireless industry. He co-developed RTT's original series of design and facilitation workshops including 'RF Technology', 'Data Over Radio', 'Introduction to Mobile Radio', and 'Private Mobile Radio Systems and developed 'The Oxford Programme', a five day strategic technology and market programme presented annually with the Shosteck Group. Over the past twenty years, several thousand senior level delegates have attended these programmes. As a Director of Cambridge Wireless, Geoff is involved in a number of wireless heritage initiatives that aim to capture and record past technology and engineering experience and has helped with fundraising at the Science Museum for the new Making of Modern Communications Gallery opening in 2014.

Foreword xvii List of Acronyms and Abbreviations xix Acknowledgements xxiii 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Differentiating Technology and Engineering Innovation 1 1.2 Differentiating Invention and Innovation 2 1.3 The Role of Standards, Regulation and Competition Policy 2 1.4 Mobile Broadband Auction Values Spectral Costs and Liabilities and Impact on Operator Balance Sheets 3 1.5 TV and Broadcasting and Mobile Broadband Regulation 4 1.6 Technology Convergence as a Precursor of Market Convergence? 5 1.7 Mobile Broadband Traffic Growth Forecasts and the Related Impact on Industry Profitability 5 1.8 Radio versus Copper, Cable and Fibre Comparative Economics 6 1.9 Standardised Description Frameworks OSI Seven-Layer Model as a Market and Business Descriptor 7 1.10 Technology and Engineering Economics Regional Shifts and Related Influence on the Design and Supply Chain, RF Component Suppliers and the Operator Community 8 1.11 Apple as an Example of Technology-Led Market Innovation 12 Part I USER HARDWARE 2 Physical Layer Connectivity 15 2.1 Differentiating Guided and Unguided Media 15 2.2 The Transfer of Bandwidth from Broadcasting to Mobile Broadband 15 2.3 The Cost of Propagation Loss and Impact of OFDM 17 2.4 Competition or Collaboration? 18 2.5 The Smith Chart as a Descriptor of Technology Economics, Vector Analysis and Moore s Law 19 2.6 Innovation Domains, Enabling Technologies and their Impact on the Cost of Delivery 20 2.7 Cable Performance Benchmarks 33 2.8 Hybrid Fibre Coaxial Systems 34 2.9 The DVB-S Satellite Alternative 35 2.10 Terrestrial TV 35 2.11 Copper Access ADSL and VDSL Evolution 36 2.12 The Copper Conundrum the Disconnect between Competition Policy and Technical Reality 42 2.13 OFDM in Wireless A Similar Story? 42 2.14 Chapter Summary 54 3 Interrelationship of the Physical Layer with Other Layers of the OSI Model 55 3.1 MAC Layer and Physical Layer Relationships 55 3.2 OFDM and the Transformative Power of Transforms 56 3.3 The Role of Binary Arithmetic in Achieving Sensitivity, Selectivity and Stability 61 3.4 Summary 69 3.5 Contention Algorithms 69 3.6 The WiFi PHY and MAC Relationship 73 3.7 LTE Scheduling Gain 83 3.8 Chapter Summary 88 4 Telecommunications Economies of Scale 91 4.1 Market Size and Projections 91 4.2 Market Dynamics 97 4.3 Impact of Band Allocation on Scale Economics 103 4.4 The Impact of Increased RF Integration on Volume Thresholds 113 4.5 The RF Functions in a Phone 118 4.6 Summary 123 5 Wireless User Hardware 125 5.1 Military and Commercial Enabling Technologies 125 5.2 Smart Phones 129 5.3 Smart Phones and the User Experience 141 5.4 Summary So Far 142 5.5 RF Component Innovation 146 5.6 Antenna Innovations 153 5.7 Other Costs 162 5.8 Summary 165 6 Cable, Copper, Wireless and Fibre and theWorld of the Big TV 167 6.1 Big TV 167 6.2 3DTV 169 6.3 Portable Entertainment Systems 170 6.4 Summary of this Chapter and the First Five Chapters Materials Innovation, Manufacturing Innovation, Market Innovation 171 Part II USER SOFTWARE 7 Device-Centric Software 175 7.1 Battery Drain The Memristor as One Solution 175 7.2 Plane Switching, Displays and Visual Acuity 176 7.3 Relationship of Display Technologies to Processor Architectures, Software Performance and Power Efficiency 177 7.4 Audio Bandwidth Cost and Value 181 7.5 Video Bandwidth Cost and Value 182 7.6 Code Bandwidth and Application Bandwidth Value, Patent Value and Connectivity Value 184 8 User-Centric Software 185 8.1 Imaging and Social Networking 185 8.2 The Image Processing Chain 186 8.3 Image Processing Software Processor and Memory Requirements 191 8.4 Digital Camera Software 194 8.5 Camera-Phone Network Hardware 196 8.6 Camera-Phone Network Software 196 8.7 Summary 197 9 Content- and Entertainment-Centric Software 199 9.1 iClouds and MyClouds 199 9.2 Lessons from the Past 200 9.3 Memory Options 203 9.4 Gaming in the Cloud and Gaming and TV Integration 205 9.5 Solid-State Storage 206 10 Information-Centric Software 211 10.1 Standard Phones, Smart Phones and Super Phones 211 10.2 Radio Waves, Light Waves and the Mechanics of Information Transfer 212 10.3 The Optical Pipe and Pixels 214 10.4 Metadata Defined 217 10.5 Mobile Metadata and Super-Phone Capabilities 219 10.6 The Role of Audio, Visual and Social Signatures in Developing Inference Value 221 10.7 Revenues from Image and Audio and Memory and Knowledge Sharing The Role of Mobile Metadata and Similarity Processing Algorithms 221 10.8 Sharing Algorithms 222 10.9 Disambiguating Social Mobile Metadata 223 10.10 The Requirement for Standardised Metadata Descriptors 223 10.11 Mobile Metadata and the Five Domains of User Value 224 10.12 Mathematical (Algorithmic Value) as an Integral Part of the Mobile Metadata Proposition 225 11 Transaction-Centric Software 229 11.1 Financial Transactions 229 11.2 The Role of SMS in Transactions, Political Influence and Public Safety 230 11.3 The Mobile Phone as a Dominant Communications Medium? 232 11.4 Commercial Issues The End of the Cheque Book? 232 Part III NETWORK HARDWARE 12 Wireless Radio Access Network Hardware 237 12.1 Historical Context 237 12.2 From Difference Engine to Connection Engine 238 12.3 IP Network Efficiency Constraints 240 12.4 Telecoms The Tobacco Industry of the Twentyfirst Century? 242 12.5 Amortisation Time Scales 242 12.6 Roads and Railways and the Power and Water Economy The Justification of Long-Term Returns 243 12.6.1 Historical Precedents Return on Infrastructure Investment Time Scales 243 12.7 Telecommunications and Economic Theory 244 12.8 The New Wireless Economy in a New Political Age? 250 12.9 Connected Economies A Definition 251 12.10 Inferences and Implications 254 12.11 The Newly Connected Economy 255 13 Wireless Core Network Hardware 257 13.1 The Need to Reduce End-to-End Delivery Cost 257 13.2 Microwave-Link Economics 258 13.3 The Backhaul Mix 259 13.4 The HRAN and LRAN 260 13.5 Summary Backhaul Options Economic Comparisons 263 13.6 Other Topics 264 14 Cable Network and Fibre Network Technologies and Topologies 267 14.1 Telegraph Poles as a Proxy for Regulatory and Competition Policy 267 14.2 Under the Streets of London 267 14.3 Above the Streets of London The Telegraph 269 14.4 Corporate Success and Failure Case Studies The Impact of Regulation and Competition Policy 269 14.5 The Correlation of Success and Failure with R and D Spending 271 14.6 Broadband Delivery Economics and Delivery Innovation 273 15 Terrestrial Broadcast/Cellular Network Integration 275 15.1 Broadcasting in Historical Context 275 15.2 Digital Radio Mondiale 277 15.3 COFDM in DRM 277 15.4 Social and Political Impact of the Transistor Radio 278 15.5 Political and Economic Value of Broadcasting 280 15.6 DAB, DMB and DVB H 281 15.7 HSPA as a Broadcast Receiver 283 15.8 Impact of Global Spectral Policy and Related Implications for Receiver Design and Signal Flux Levels 284 15.9 White-Space Devices 287 15.10 Transmission Efficiency 289 15.11 Scale Economy Efficiency 289 15.12 Signalling Efficiency 289 15.13 Power Efficiency Loss as a Result of a Need for Wide Dynamic Range 290 15.14 Uneconomic Network Density as a Function of Transceiver TX and RX Inefficiency 290 15.15 Cognitive Radios Already Exist Why Not Extend Them into White-Space Spectrum? 290 15.16 An Implied Need to Rethink the White-Space Space 291 15.17 White-Space White House 291 15.18 LTE TV 292 15.19 Summary 295 15.20 TV or not TV That is the Question What is the Answer? 295 15.21 And Finally the Issue of Potential Spectral Litigation 297 15.22 Technology Economics 300 15.23 Engineering Economics 300 15.24 Market Economics 300 15.25 Business Economics 301 15.26 Political Economics 301 15.27 Remedies 301 16 Satellite Networks 303 16.1 Potential Convergence 303 16.2 Traditional Specialist User Expectations 303 16.3 Impact of Cellular on Specialist User Expectations 304 16.4 DMR 446 305 16.5 TETRA and TETRA TEDS 305 16.6 TETRAPOL 306 16.7 WiDEN 306 16.8 APCO 25 306 16.9 Why the Performance Gap Between Cellular and Two-Way Radio will Continue to Increase Over Time 307 16.10 What This Means for Two-Way Radio Network Operators 307 16.11 Lack of Frequency Harmonisation as a Compounding Factor 307 16.12 The LTE 700 MHz Public-Safety-Band Plan 309 16.13 The US 800-MHz Public-Safety-Band Plan 310 16.14 Policy Issues and Technology Economics 313 16.15 Satellites for Emergency-Service Provision 315 16.16 Satellites and Cellular Networks 316 16.17 The Impact of Changing Technology and a Changed and Changing Economic and Regulatory Climate Common Interest Opportunities 317 16.18 And Finally Satellite and Terrestrial Hybrid Networks 318 16.19 Satellite Spectrum and Orbit Options 321 16.20 Terrestrial Broadcast and Satellite Coexistence in L Band 324 16.21 Terrestrial DAB Satellite DAB and DVB H 324 16.22 World Space Satellite Broadcast L Band GSO Plus Proposed ATC 324 16.23 Inmarsat L Band GSO Two-Way Mobile Communications 324 16.24 Thuraya 2 L Band GSO Plus Triband GSM and GPS 325 16.25 ACeS L Band GSO Plus Triband GSM and GPS 325 16.26 Mobile Satellite Ventures L Band GSO Plus ATC 325 16.27 Global Positioning MEOS at L Band GPS, Galileo and Glonass 325 16.28 Terrestrial Broadcast and Satellite Coexistence in S Band 326 16.29 XM and Sirius in the US S Band GEO Plus S Band ATC 326 16.30 Mobaho in Japan and S DMB in South Korea S Band GSO Plus ATC 326 16.31 Terrestar S Band in the US GSO with ATC 327 16.32 ICO S Band GSO with ATC 327 16.33 ICO S Band MEO at S Band with ATC 327 16.34 Eutelsat and SES ASTRA GSO Free S Band Payloads 328 16.35 Intelsat C Band Ku Band and Ka Band GSO 328 16.36 Implications for Terrestrial Broadcasters 328 16.37 Implications for Terrestrial Cellular Service Providers 329 16.38 The Impact of Satellite Terrestrial ATC Hybrids on Cellular Spectral and Corporate Value 329 16.39 L Band, S Band, C Band, K Band and V Band Hybrids 329 16.40 Summary 330 Part IV NETWORK SOFTWARE 17 Network Software The User Experience 335 17.1 Definition of a Real-Time Network 335 17.2 Switching or Routing 336 17.3 IP Switching as an Option 336 17.4 Significance of the IPv6 Transition 336 17.5 Router Hardware/Software Partitioning 336 17.6 The Impact of Increasing Policy Complexity 337 17.7 So What Do Whorls Have to Do with Telecom Networks? 338 17.8 Packet Arrival Rates 342 17.9 Multilayer Classification 342 18 Network Software Energy Management and Control 347 18.1 Will the Pot Call the Kettle Back? 347 18.2 Corporate M2M 348 18.3 Specialist M2M 348 18.4 Consumer M2M 349 18.5 Device Discovery and Device Coupling in Consumer M2M Applications and the Role of Near-Field Communication 349 18.6 Bandwidth Considerations 350 18.7 Femtocells as an M2M Hub? 351 18.8 Summary 352 19 Network Software Microdevices and Microdevice Networks The Software of the Very Small 353 19.1 Microdevices How Small is Small? 354 19.2 Contactless Smart Cards at 13.56 MHz A Technology, Engineering and Business Model? 357 19.3 Contactless Smart Cards and Memory Spots Unidirectional and Bidirectional Value 358 19.4 Contactless Smart Cards, RF ID and Memory Spots 358 19.5 Contactless Smart Cards, RF ID, Memory Spot and Mote (Smart Dust) Applications 359 19.6 The Cellular Phone as a Bridge Between Multiple Devices and Other Network-Based Information 359 19.7 Multiple RF Options 360 19.8 Multiple Protocol Stacks 360 19.9 Adoption Time Scales Bar Codes as an Example 360 19.10 Summary 361 20 Server Software 363 20.1 The Wisdom of the Cloud? 364 20.2 A Profitable Cloud? 364 20.3 A Rural Cloud? 365 20.4 A Locally Economically Relevant Cloud? 365 20.5 A Locally Socially Relevant Cloud? 365 20.6 A Locally Politically Relevant Cloud The China Cloud? 366 20.7 The Cultural Cloud? 367 21 Future Trends, Forecasting, the Age of Adaptation and More Transformative Transforms 369 21.1 Future Forecasts 369 21.2 The Contribution of Charles Darwin to the Theory of Network Evolution 370 21.3 Famous Mostly Bearded Botanists and Their Role in Network Design The Dynamics of Adaptation 371 21.4 Adaptation, Scaling and Context 371 21.5 Examples of Adaptation in Existing Semiconductor Solutions 372 21.6 Examples of Adaptation in Present Mobile Broadband Systems 372 21.7 Examples of Adaptation in Future Semiconductor Solutions 373 21.8 Examples of Adaptation in Future Cellular Networks 373 21.9 Specialisation 375 21.10 The Role of Standards Making 376 21.11 The Need for a Common Language 376 21.12 A Definition of Descriptive Domains 377 21.13 Testing the Model on Specific Applications 379 21.14 Domain Value 380 21.15 Quantifying Domain-Specific Economic and Emotional Value 381 21.16 Differentiating Communications and Connectivity Value 382 21.17 Defining Next-Generation Networks 383 21.18 Defining an Ultralow-Cost Network 384 21.19 Standards Policy, Spectral Policy and RF Economies of Scale 385 21.20 The Impact of IPR on RF Component and Subsystem Costs 386 21.21 The Cost of Design Dissipation 386 21.22 The Hidden Costs of Content Storage Cost 387 21.23 The Hidden Costs of User-Generated Content Sorting Cost 387 21.24 The Hidden Cost of Content Trigger Moments 387 21.25 The Hidden Cost of Content Delivery Cost 388 21.26 The Particular Costs of Delivering Broadcast Content Over Cellular Networks 388 21.27 Summary Cost and Value Transforms 388 Index 391