Chinaʼs Macroeconomic Outlook (eBook)

Preface 6
Acknowledgements 7
Principal Investigator 9
Members of the Research Team 9
Executive Summary 10
Contents 17
1 China’s Economic Performance in the First Half of 2019 19
1.1 China’s Economy Performed Stable, but the Downward Pressure on the Economy Increased 19
1.2 The Unemployment Rate Remained Relatively High, and Inflation was Moderate 22
1.3 The Growth of Total FAI Maintained Stable, and the Growth of Private Investment Declined 24
1.4 The Growth of the Total Retail Sales of Social Consumer Goods Slowed Down, and the Household Consumption Accelerated to Services-Oriented 26
1.5 The Recession-Style Trade Surplus Highlighted, and the Positive Growth Rate of Exports Showed Resilience 29
1.6 The Growth Rate of Social Financing Continued to Rise, and Corporate Financing Demand Remained Weak 31
1.7 The Growth of Taxation Declined Markedly and Financial Pressure Became Relatively High 34
1.8 Outlook for the Second Half of 2019 36
2 Quarterly Forecast for 2019–2020 38
2.1 Assumptions on Exogenous Variables 38
2.1.1 Growth Rates of the US and the Euro Area 38
2.1.2 The Exchange Rates 39
2.1.3 Growth Rate of the Broad Money Supply (M2) 40
2.2 Scenario Design on Different Trends in Trade Conflicts 41
2.3 Quarterly Forecast of China Major Macroeconomic Indicators in 2019–20 42
2.3.1 GDP Growth Rates 42
2.3.2 Growth Rates of Exports and Imports 42
2.3.3 Growth Rates of FAI 43
2.4 Growth Rates of Other Major Macroeconomic Indicators 47
2.4.1 Projected Growth Rates of Major Price Indicators 47
2.4.2 Growth Rates of Consumption 48
3 Policy Simulation: Effects of China’s Tax Cuts Policy to Boost the Growth of Household Consumption 51
3.1 Background 51
3.2 Policy Simulation 56
3.2.1 Transmission Mechanism 56
3.2.2 Simulation Scenarios Planning 57
3.2.3 Simulation Results 60
3.3 Conclusion 63
References 66
4 Conclusions and Policy Suggestions 67
4.1 Introduction 67
Appendix A Report on Questionnaire Survey on the Outlook for China’s Economy and Policy 73
Outlook for the World Economy in 2019 73
Outlook for China’s Economy in 2019 75
Outlook for China’s Macroeconomic Policy in 2019 77
Appendix B Forecast of Major Indicators of China’s Economy in 2019 by the CQMM Team and Experts 82