China's Macroeconomic Outlook (eBook)

Preface 6
Contents 7
Principal Investigator 9
Members of the Research Team 9
Executive Summary 10
1 Review of China’s Macroeconomy in 2018 15
1.1 The Economic Structure Optimized 16
1.2 The Growth Rates of Investments Varied 17
1.3 The Industrial Production Grew Steadily 19
1.4 The Growth of Import and Export Slowed Down 23
1.5 The Growth of Consumption Slowed Down 25
1.6 The Monetary Policy Tightened 26
1.7 The Growth of Fiscal Revenue Declined 28
2 China’s Macroeconomic Forecast for 2019–2020 31
2.1 Assumptions of Model Exogenous Variables 31
2.1.1 Economic Growth Rates 31
2.1.2 The Exchange Rates 32
2.1.3 Growth Rate of Broad Money Supply (M2) 33
2.2 Two Scenarios on the China and the United States Trade Talk 34
2.3 Forecast of Major Macroeconomic Indicators in 2019 and 2020 35
2.3.1 Forecast of GDP Growth Rate Under the Two Scenarios 35
2.3.2 Forecast of Import and Export Growth Rate Under the Two Scenarios 36
2.3.3 Forecast of Investment Growth Rate Under the Two Scenarios 38
2.3.4 Forecast of Growth Rate for Other Macroeconomic Indicators 40
3 Two Scenarios to Analyze the Effects of Reducing Social Insurance Rate 43
3.1 The Total Amount and Structural Change of Social Insurance 44
3.2 Two Scenarios to Reduce Social Insurance Rate 50
3.3 Simulation Results 52
4 Policy Recommendations 57
Appendix A: A Questionnaire Report on China’s Macroeconomy and Policy 62
A.1   The World Economic Situation in 2019 62
A.2  The China’s Economic Situation in 2019 63
A.3   The Forecast of China’s Macro-Economic Policy in 2019 65
Appendix B: Comments and Discussions 71
B.1   By Professor Gao Peiyong 71
B.2   By Professor Xu Xianchun 74
B.3   By Professor Jia Kang 77
B.4   By Professor Zhang Ping 80
B.5   By Professor Chen Yanbin 81
B.6   By Professor Yang Zhiyong 83
B.7   Professor Lou Feng 84