Climate of the Past, Present and Future

1 Introduction

The grounds for concern about Modern Global Warming

References

2 The Glacial Cycle

2.1 Introduction

2.2 Milankovitch Theory

2.2.1 Eccentricity

2.2.2 Obliquity

2.2.3 Precession

2.2.4 Modern interpretation of Milankovitch Theory

2.3 Problems with Milankovitch Theory

2.3.1 The Mid-Pleistocene transition

2.3.2 The 100-kyr problem

2.3.3 The causality problem

2.3.4 The asymmetry problem

2.3.5 The 41-kyr problem

2.4 Evidence that interglacial pacing does not follow a 100-kyr cycle

2.5 Evidence that obliquity, and not precession, sets the pacing of interglacials

2.5.1 Obliquity controlled glaciations before the Mid-Pleistocene Transition

2.5.2 Interstadials are still under obliquity control

2.5.3 Temperature shows a clear response to obliquity-linked changes in 70-90° insolation

2.5.4 Temperature responds poorly to precession-linked changes in insolation

2.5.5 Temperature shows better phase agreement with obliquity

2.5.6 Temperature changes almost perfectly match obliquity changes

2.5.7 Interglacials show a duration consistent with obliquity cycles

2.5.8 Obliquity-paced interglacials solve all Milankovitch Theory problems

2.6 The 100-kyr ice cycle.

2.7 Interglacial determination for the past million years

2.8 Summer energy as the relevant insolation forcing

2.9 Interglacials of atypical duration

2.10 Role of obliquity in the glacial cycle

2.11 Role of CO 2 in the glacial cycle

2.12 Conclusions

References

3 The Dansgaard-Oeschger Cycle

3.1 Introduction

3.2 Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations

3.3 Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations in the Antarctic record.

3.4 Does the Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle have a periodicity?

3.5 Conditions for the Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle

3.6 Consensus Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle theory and challenges

3.7 Mechanistic explanation of the Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle

3.8 Tidal cycles as an explanation for Dansgaard-Oeschger triggering mechanism

3.9 Conclusions

References

4 Holocene climatic variability

4.1 Introduction

4.2 Holocene general climate trend

4.3 The controversial role of greenhouse gases during the Holocene

4.4 The Holocene Climatic Optimum

4.5 The Mid-Holocene Transition and the end of the African Humid Period

4.6 The Neoglacial period

4.7 Holocene climate variability

4.8 Bond events and other Abrupt Climatic Events

4.9 Holocene millennial cycles

4.10 Conclusions

References

5 The 2500-year Bray cycle

5.1 Introduction

5.2 The biological 2500-year climate cycle

5.3 The glaciological 2500-year climate cycle

5.4 The atmospheric 2500-year climate cycle

5.5 The oceanic 2500-year climate cycle

5.6 The hydrological 2500-year climate cycle

5.7 The temperature 2500-year cycle

5.8 The solar variability 2500-year cycle

5.9 2300-year Hallstatt versus 2500-year Bray

5.10 The solar-climate relationship

5.11 Solar variability effect on climate

5.12 Conclusions

References

6 The effect of abrupt climate change on human societies of the past

6.1 Introduction

6.2 The solar minima of the 2500-yr Bray cycle

6.3 The 10.3 kyr event. The Boreal Oscillation.

6.4 The 8.2 kyr climate complex

6.5 The 7.7 kyr event. The Boreal/Atlantic transition

6.6 The 5.2 kyr event. The Mid-Holocene Transition and the start of the Neoglacial period

6.7 The 2.8 kyr event. The Sub-Boreal/Sub-Atlantic Minimum.

6.8 The 0.5 kyr event. The Little Ice Age.

6.9 Climatic effects of solar grand minima.

6.10 Conclusions

References
7 The elusive 1500-year Holocene cycle

7.1 Introduction

7.2 What must we expect of a Holocene 1500-year cycle?

7.3 The 1500-year periodicity during the Holocene

7.4 The oceanic 1500-year cycle

7.5 The atmospheric 1500-year cycle

7.6 The 4.2 kyr event

7.7 Storminess, drift ice and tidal effects

7.8 Ending the confusion about the 1500-year cycle

7.9 Conclusions