Elections and Exit Polling (eBook)

Fritz J. Scheuren, PhD, is Vice President for Statistics at the National Opinion Research Center (NORC) at the University of Chicago. Dr. Scheuren was the 100th President of the American Statistical Association (ASA) and has a distinguished career in academia and consulting that spans over three decades. He has published over 250 journal articles on sampling of operating records, survey design, process quality, auditing, and missing data. Wendy Alvey has over thirty-five years of experience as a senior statistician and policy analyst for several corporate and government entities. Throughout her career, she has conducted extensive research on the statistical uses of administrative records in U.S. Census development, and helped pioneer census policies that protect respondent confidentiality.

Preface.

Acknowledgments.

Contributors.

1. Introduction (Fritz Scheuren and Wendy Alvey).

1.1. Introduction.

1.2. Definitions.

1.3. Brief History.

1.4. A Day in the Life of An Exit Poll.

1.5. Theory and Methodology.

1.6. Recent electoral Applications.

1.7. Some Major Limitations.

1.8. Recommendations and a Few Predictions.

1.9. References.

2. The Infamous 2000 Election.

2.1. Introduction.

2.2. Analysis: Looking Back.

2.3. Data Quality.

2.4. Summary Observations.

3. 2004: Fraudulent Election?

3.1. Introduction.

3.2. The Great Election Debate.

3.3. Confidentiality-Another Side of the Controversy.

3.4. Further Research.

3.5. Summary Observations.

4. Mid-Term Elections: 2006.

4.1. Introduction.

4.2. Pre-Election Polls.

4.3. Referenda on the Ballot.

4.4. Summary Observations.

5. Globe-Trotting Consultant.

5.1. Introduction.

5.2. A Historical Look at Exit Polls From a Mexican
Perspective.

5.3. Muslim Opinions on Political Reform.

5.4. A Mexican Case Study.

5.5. Pre-Election Polling in Nagano, Japan.

5.6. Swedish Public Opinion Polls.

5.7. Election Polling In Canada.

5.8. Summary Observations.

6. Looking Ahead: Recommendations for 2008 and
Beyond.

6.1. Introduction.

6.2. Recommendations for the Future.

6.3. Some Recent Research.

6.4. Guidelines for Quality Polling.

6.5. Next Steps.

6.6. Summary Observations.

7. Technical Appendix.

7.1. Introduction.

7.2. Statistical Methods for Papers in This Volume.

7.3. Appendix: Survey Questions.

7.4. Additional Methodological Papers.

7.5. Summary Observations.

Author Index.

Index.

"Elections and Exit Polling is an excellent basic guide to
election polling, consisting of introductory material written by
the editors and essays or excerpts of essay by various experts in
the field." (MAA Reviews, August 2008)

"This book is early proof that Warren Mitofsky's legacy will
live on after him." (Clyde Tucker of CNN News)

"An understanding the relationship between the
product and the process in election polling is often lost. This
edited volume unites ideas and researchers, with quality playing
the central role." (Michael J. Brick of Westat,
Inc.)

"The way [the author] conceived and constructed it is
... a real joy for the reader." (Dick Rubin of
National Opinion Research Center)