Jean-Pierre Danthine is professor of economics and finance at the University of Lausanne Switzerland), director of the International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering Lausanne & Geneva) and CEPR Research Fellow. The holder of a Ph.D. in economics from Carnegie-Mellon University and a M.S. in Economics from the University of Louvain, Professor DanthineI previously taught at at Columbia University and held visiting appointments at CUNY Graduate Center, University of Southern California (Los Angeles), Universit‚ d'Aix-Marseille, Universit‚ Laval (Qu‚bec), as well as Universities of Toulon and Dijon.He is an Associate Editor of Macroeconomic Dynamics and Finance Research Letters; Chairman of the Scientific Council of the TCIP (Training Center for Investment Professionals); member of the Council of the European Economic Association, of the Scientific Councils of CEPREMAP (Paris), CREST (Paris), CREI (U. Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona) as well as the Fonds national de la recherche scientifique (Economics Commission - Belgium). He was also a member of the Executive Committee of the ICMB (Geneva).
Targeting readers with backgrounds in economics, Intermediate Financial Theory, Third Edition includes new material on the asset pricing implications of behavioral finance perspectives, recent developments in portfolio choice, derivatives-risk neutral pricing research, and implications of the 2008 financial crisis. Each chapter concludes with questions, and for the first time a freely accessible website presents complementary and supplementary material for every chapter. Known for its rigor and intuition, Intermediate Financial Theory is perfect for those who need basic training in financial theory and those looking for a user-friendly introduction to advanced theory. - Completely updated edition of classic textbook that fills a gap between MBA- and PhD-level texts- Focuses on clear explanations of key concepts and requires limited mathematical prerequisites- Online solutions manual available- Updates include new structure emphasizing the distinction between the equilibrium and the arbitrage perspectives on valuation and pricing, and a new chapter on asset management for the long-term investor
Front Cover 1
Intermediate Financial Theory 4
Copyright Page 5
Contents 6
Preface 16
Dedication 22
I. Introduction 24
1 On the Role of Financial Markets and Institutions 26
1.1 Finance: The Time Dimension 26
1.2 Desynchronization: The Risk Dimension 29
1.3 The Screening and Monitoring Functions of the Financial System 30
1.4 The Financial System and Economic Growth 31
1.5 Financial Markets and Social Welfare 35
1.6 Financial Intermediation and the Business Cycle 41
1.7 Financial Crises 42
1.8 Conclusion 45
References 46
Complementary Readings 47
Appendix: Introduction to General Equilibrium Theory 47
Pareto Optimal Allocations 48
Competitive Equilibrium 50
2 The Challenges of Asset Pricing: A Road Map 54
2.1 The Main Question of Financial Theory 54
2.2 Discounting Risky Cash Flows: Various Lines of Attack 56
2.3 Two Main Perspectives: Equilibrium versus Arbitrage 58
2.4 Decomposing Risk Premia 60
2.5 Models and Stylized Facts 62
2.5.1 The Equity Premium 63
2.5.2 The Value Premium 65
2.5.3 The Term Structure 66
2.6 Asset Pricing Is Not All of Finance! 67
2.6.1 Corporate Finance 67
2.6.2 Capital Structure 68
2.6.3 Taxes and Capital Structure 69
2.6.4 Capital Structure and Agency Costs 71
2.6.5 The Pecking Order Theory of Investment Financing 72
2.7 Banks 72
2.8 Conclusions 74
References 74
II. The Demand for Financial Assets 76
3 Making Choices in Risky Situations 78
3.1 Introduction 78
3.2 Choosing Among Risky Prospects: Preliminaries 79
3.3 A Prerequisite: Choice Theory Under Certainty 84
3.4 Choice Theory Under Uncertainty: An Introduction 86
3.5 The Expected Utility Theorem 89
3.6 How Restrictive Is Expected Utility Theory? The Allais Paradox 95
3.7 Behavioral Finance 98
3.7.1 Framing 99
3.7.2 Prospect Theory 101
3.7.2.1 Preference Orderings with Connections to Prospect Theory 106
3.7.3 Overconfidence 107
3.8 Conclusions 108
References 108
4 Measuring Risk and Risk Aversion 110
4.1 Introduction 110
4.2 Measuring Risk Aversion 110
4.3 Interpreting the Measures of Risk Aversion 113
4.3.1 Absolute Risk Aversion and the Odds of a Bet 113
4.3.2 Relative Risk Aversion in Relation to the Odds of a Bet 115
4.3.3 Risk Neutral Investors 116
4.4 Risk Premium and Certainty Equivalence 117
4.5 Assessing the Degree of Relative Risk Aversion 120
4.6 The Concept of Stochastic Dominance 121
4.7 Mean Preserving Spreads 125
4.8 An Unsettling Observation About Expected Utility 128
4.9 Applications: Leverage and Risk 129
4.9.1 An Example 131
4.9.2 Is Leverage a Good Thing? 132
4.9.3 An Application to Executive Compensation 134
4.10 Conclusions 135
References 136
Appendix: Proof of Theorem 4.2 136
5 Risk Aversion and Investment Decisions, Part 1 138
5.1 Introduction 138
5.2 Risk Aversion and Portfolio Allocation: Risk-Free Versus Risky Assets 139
5.2.1 The Canonical Portfolio Problem 139
5.2.2 Illustration and Examples 140
5.3 Portfolio Composition, Risk Aversion, and Wealth 141
5.4 Special Case of Risk-Neutral Investors 144
5.5 Risk Aversion and Risky Portfolio Composition 145
5.6 Risk Aversion and Savings Behavior 147
5.6.1 Savings and the Riskiness of Returns 147
5.6.2 Illustrating Prudence 151
5.6.3 The Joint Saving–Portfolio Problem 152
5.7 Generalizing the VNM-Expected Utility Representation 153
5.7.1 Preferences for the Timing of Uncertainty Resolution 154
5.7.2 Preferences That Guarantee Time-Consistent Planning 156
5.7.2.1 Quasi-Hyperbolic Discounting 158
5.7.3 Separating Risk and Time Preferences 160
5.8 Conclusions 162
References 163
6 Risk Aversion and Investment Decisions, Part II: Modern Portfolio Theory 166
6.1 Introduction 167
6.2 More About Utility Functions and Return Distributions 167
6.3 Refining the Normality-of-Returns Assumption 172
6.4 Description of the Opportunity Set in the Mean–Variance Space: The Gains from Diversification and the Efficient Frontier 175
6.5 The Optimal Portfolio: A Separation Theorem 181
6.6 Stochastic Dominance and Diversification 182
6.7 Conclusions 188
References 189
Appendix 6.1: Indifference Curves Under Quadratic Utility or Normally Distributed Returns 189
Part I 189
Part II 190
U Is Quadratic 191
The Distribution if R Is Normal 191
Proof of the Convexity of Indifference Curves 193
Appendix 6.2: The Shape of the Efficient Frontier Two Assets
Perfect Positive Correlation 194
Imperfectly Correlated Assets 194
Perfect Negative Correlation 195
One Riskless and One Risky Asset 195
Appendix 6.3: Constructing the Efficient Frontier 196
The Basic Portfolio Problem 196
Generalizations 197
Nonnegativity Constraints 197
Composition Constraints 198
Adjusting the Data (Modifying the Means) 199
Constraints on the Number of Securities in the Portfolio 200
7 Risk Aversion and Investment Decisions, Part III: Challenges to Implementation 204
7.1 Introduction 204
7.2 The Consequences of Parameter Uncertainty 206
7.3 Trends and Cycles in Stock Market Return Data 210
7.3.1 Trends in International Stock Market Cross-Correlations 211
7.3.2 Asset Correlations in Cyclical Periods of High Volatility 213
7.3.3 The Financial Crisis 214
7.4 Equally Weighted Portfolios 216
7.5 Are Stocks Less Risky for Long Investment Horizons? 218
7.5.1 Long- and Short-Run Equity Riskiness: Historical Patterns 218
7.5.2 Intertemporal Stock Return Behavior Through Time: The Random Walk Model 220
7.5.3 Are Stocks Less Risky in the Long Run? A Predictive Perspective 224
7.6 Conclusions 226
References 227
Appendix 7.1 228
III. Equilibrium Pricing 230
8 The Capital Asset Pricing Model 232
8.1 Introduction 232
8.2 The Traditional Approach to the CAPM 233
8.3 Valuing Risky Cash Flows with the CAPM 237
8.4 The Mathematics of the Portfolio Frontier: Many Risky Assets and No Risk-Free Asset 240
8.5 Characterizing Efficient Portfolios (No Risk-Free Assets) 245
8.6 Background for Deriving the Zero-Beta CAPM: Notion of a Zero-Covariance Portfolio 247
8.7 The Zero-Beta CAPM 250
8.8 The Standard CAPM 252
8.9 An Empirical Assessment of the CAPM 254
8.9.1 Fama and MacBeth (1973) 255
8.9.2 Banz (1981) and the “Size Effect” 257
8.9.3 Fama and French (1992) 257
8.9.4 Volatility Anomalies 258
8.10 Conclusions 262
References 263
Appendix 8.1: Proof of the CAPM Relationship 264
Appendix 8.2: The Mathematics of the Portfolio Frontier: An Example 265
Appendix 8.3: Diagrammatic Representation of the Fama–MacBeth Two-Step Procedure 268
9 Arrow–Debreu Pricing, Part I 270
9.1 Introduction 270
9.2 Setting: An Arrow–Debreu Economy 271
9.3 Competitive Equilibrium and Pareto Optimality Illustrated 273
9.4 Pareto Optimality and Risk Sharing 280
9.5 Implementing PO Allocations: On the Possibility of Market Failure 283
9.6 Risk-Neutral Valuations 286
9.7 Conclusions 289
References 290
10 The Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model 292
10.1 Introduction 293
10.2 The Representative Agent Hypothesis and its Notion of Equilibrium 293
10.2.1 An Infinitely Lived Representative Agent 293
10.2.2 On the Concept of a “No-Trade” Equilibrium 294
10.3 An Exchange (Endowment) Economy 298
10.3.1 The Model 298
10.3.2 Interpreting the Exchange Equilibrium 301
10.3.3 The Formal CCAPM 304
10.4 Pricing Arrow–Debreu State-Contingent Claims with the CCAPM 304
10.4.1 The CCAPM and Risk-Neutral Valuation 308
10.5 Testing the CCAPM: The Equity Premium Puzzle 309
10.6 Testing the CCAPM: Hansen–Jagannathan Bounds 316
10.7 The SDF in Greater Generality 318
10.8 Some Extensions 320
10.8.1 Reviewing the Diagnosis 320
10.8.2 Adding a Disaster State 322
10.8.3 Habit Formation 325
10.8.4 The CCAPM with Epstein–Zin Utility 326
10.8.4.1 Bansal and Yaron (2004) 329
10.8.4.2 Collin-Dufresne et al. (2013) 331
10.8.5 Beyond a Representative Agent and Rational Expectations 336
10.8.5.1 Beyond a Representative Agent 336
10.8.5.2 Beyond Rational Expectations 339
10.9 Conclusions 340
References 340
Appendix 10.1: Solving the CCAPM with Growth 342
Appendix 10.2: Some Properties of the Lognormal Distribution 343
IV. Arbitrage Pricing 346
11 Arrow–Debreu Pricing, Part II 348
11.1 Introduction 348
11.2 Market Completeness and Complex Securities 349
11.3 Constructing State-Contingent Claims Prices in a Risk-Free World: Deriving the Term Structure 353
11.4 The Value Additivity Theorem 358
11.5 Using Options to Complete the Market: An Abstract Setting 360
11.6 Synthesizing State-Contingent Claims: A First Approximation 366
11.7 Recovering Arrow–Debreu Prices from Options Prices: A Generalization 368
11.8 Arrow–Debreu Pricing in a Multiperiod Setting 375
11.9 Conclusions 380
References 381
Appendix 11.1: Forward Prices and Forward Rates 381
12 The Martingale Measure: Part I 384
12.1 Introduction 384
12.2 The Setting and the Intuition 385
12.3 Notation, Definitions, and Basic Results 387
12.4 Uniqueness 392
12.5 Incompleteness 395
12.6 Equilibrium and No Arbitrage Opportunities 398
12.7 Application: Maximizing the Expected Utility of Terminal Wealth 400
12.7.1 Portfolio Investment and Risk-Neutral Probabilities 400
12.7.2 Solving the Portfolio Problem 403
12.7.3 A Numerical Example 404
12.8 Conclusions 406
References 407
Appendix 12.1 Finding the Stock and Bond Economy That Is Directly Analogous to the Arrow–Debreu Economy in Which Only State... 407
Appendix 12.2 Proof of the Second Part of Proposition 12.6 409
13 The Martingale Measure: Part II 410
13.1 Introduction 410
13.2 Discrete Time Infinite Horizon Economies: A CCAPM Setting 411
13.3 Risk-Neutral Pricing in the CCAPM 413
13.4 The Binomial Model of Derivatives Valuation 420
13.5 Continuous Time: An Introduction to the Black–Scholes Formula 430
13.6 Dybvig’s Evaluation of Dynamic Trading Strategies 433
13.7 Conclusions 437
References 437
Appendix 13.1: Risk-Neutral Valuation When Discounting at the Term Structure of Multiperiod Discount Bond 437
14 The Arbitrage Pricing Theory 440
14.1 Introduction 440
14.2 Factor Models: A First Illustration 442
14.2.1 Using the Market Model 443
14.3 A Second Illustration: Multifactor Models, and the CAPM 444
14.4 The APT: A Formal Statement 447
14.5 Macroeconomic Factor Models 449
14.6 Models with Factor-Mimicking Portfolios 451
14.6.1 The Size and Value Factors of Fama and French (1993) 451
14.6.2 Momentum Portfolios 457
14.7 Advantage of the APT for Stock or Portfolio Selection 459
14.8 Conclusions 460
References 460
Appendix A.14.1: A Graphical Interpretation of the APT 461
Statement and Proof of the APT 462
The CAPM and the APT 464
Appendix 14.2: Capital Budgeting 464
15 An Intuitive Overview of Continuous Time Finance 466
15.1 Introduction 466
15.2 Random Walks and Brownian Motion 467
15.3 More General Continuous Time Processes 471
15.4 A Continuous Time Model of Stock Price Behavior 472
15.5 Simulation and European Call Pricing 474
15.5.1 Ito processes 474
15.5.2 Binomial Model 476
15.6 Solving Stochastic Differential Equations: A First Approach 477
15.6.1 The Behavior of Stochastic Differentials 477
15.6.2 Ito’s Lemma 479
15.6.3 The Black–Scholes Formula 480
15.7 A Second Approach: Martingale Methods 482
15.8 Applications 483
15.8.1 The Consumption–Savings Problem 483
15.8.2 An Application to Portfolio Analysis 484
15.8.2.1 Digression to Discrete Time 485
15.8.2.2 Return to Continuous Time 487
15.8.3 The Consumption CAPM in Continuous Time 489
15.9 Final Comments 490
References 490
16 Portfolio Management in the Long Run 492
16.1 Introduction 492
16.2 The Myopic Solution 495
16.3 Variations in the Risk-Free Rate 501
16.3.1 The Budget Constraint 502
16.3.2 The Optimality Equation 504
16.3.3 Optimal Portfolio Allocations 505
16.3.4 The Nature of the Risk-Free Asset 507
16.3.5 The Role of Bonds in Investor Portfolios 508
16.4 The Long-Run Behavior of Stock Returns 509
16.4.1 Solving for Optimal Portfolio Proportions in a Mean Reversion Environment 512
16.4.2 Strategic Asset Allocation 514
16.4.3 The Role of Stocks in Investor Portfolios 515
16.5 Background Risk: The Implications of Labor Income for Portfolio Choice 515
16.6 An Important Caveat 524
16.7 Another Background Risk: Real Estate 524
16.8 Conclusions 527
References 528
17 Financial Structure and Firm Valuation in Incomplete Markets 530
17.1 Introduction 530
17.1.1 What Securities Should a Firm Issue if the Value of the Firm is to be Maximized? 531
17.1.2 What Securities Should a Firm Issue if it is to Grow as Rapidly as Possible? 531
17.2 Financial Structure and Firm Valuation 531
17.2.1 Financial Structure F1 533
17.2.2 Financial Structure F2 535
17.3 Arrow–Debreu and Modigliani–Miller 537
17.4 On the Role of Short Selling 539
17.5 Financing and Growth 541
17.5.1 No Contingent Claims Markets 542
17.5.2 Contingent Claims Trading 542
17.5.3 Incomplete Markets 544
17.5.4 Complete Contingent Claims 545
17.6 Conclusions 547
References 547
Appendix: Details of the Solution of the Contingent Claims Trade Case of Section 17.5 548
18 Financial Equilibrium with Differential Information 550
18.1 Introduction 550
18.2 On the Possibility of an Upward-Sloping Demand Curve 552
18.3 An Illustration of the Concept of REE: Homogeneous Information 553
18.4 Fully Revealing REE: An Example 558
18.5 The Efficient Market Hypothesis 562
References 565
Appendix: Bayesian Updating with the Normal Distribution 565
Index 568
List of Frequently Used Symbols and Notation 578
Roman Alphabet 578
Greek Alphabet 579
Numerals and Other Terms 580
On the Role of Financial Markets and Institutions
Chapter 1 considers the role played by the financial system in the economic life of a society. In general terms, a financial system allows for the income and consumption (or, in the case of firms, investment) streams of economic agents to be desynchronized; that is, made less similar, across both time periods and states of nature (uncertain events). We consider how the functioning of the financial system can have substantial consequences of the growth of an economy and for its business cycle properties.
Keywords
Arrow–Debreu securities; Great Recession case; Edgeworth–Bowley box; Pareto optimal; complete financial markets; competitive equilibrium
Chapter Outline
1.1 Finance: The Time Dimension 3
1.2 Desynchronization: The Risk Dimension 6
1.3 The Screening and Monitoring Functions of the Financial System 7
1.4 The Financial System and Economic Growth 8
1.5 Financial Markets and Social Welfare 12
1.6 Financial Intermediation and the Business Cycle 18
References 23
1.1 Finance: The Time Dimension
Why do we need financial markets and institutions? We choose to address this question as our introduction to this text on financial theory. In doing so, we touch on some of the most difficult issues in finance and introduce concepts that will eventually require extensive development. Our purpose here is to phrase this question as an appropriate background for the study of the more technical issues that will occupy us at length. We also want to introduce some important elements of the necessary terminology. We ask the reader’s patience as most of the sometimes difficult material introduced here will be taken up in more detail in the following chapters.
Fundamentally, a financial system is a set of institutions and markets permitting the exchange of contracts and the provision of services for the purpose of allowing the income and consumption streams of economic agents to be desynchronized—i.e., made less similar. It can, in fact, be argued that indeed the primary function of the financial system is to permit such desynchronization. There are two dimensions to this function: the time dimension and the risk dimension. Let us start with time. Why is it useful to disassociate consumption and income across time? Two reasons come immediately to mind. First, and somewhat trivially, income is typically received at discrete dates, say monthly, while it is customary to wish to consume continuously (i.e., every day).
Second, and more importantly, consumption spending defines a standard of living, and most individuals find it difficult to alter their standard of living from month to month or even from year to year. There is a general, if not universal, desire for a smooth consumption stream. Because it deeply affects everyone, the most important manifestation of this desire is the need to save (consumption smaller than income) for retirement so as to permit a consumption stream in excess of income (dissaving) after retirement begins. The life-cycle patterns of income generation and consumption spending are not identical, and the latter must be created from the former. The same considerations apply to shorter horizons. Seasonal patterns of consumption and income, for example, need not be identical. Certain individuals (car salespersons, department store salespersons, construction workers) may experience variations in income arising from seasonal events (e.g., most new cars are purchased in the spring and summer; construction activity is much reduced in winter), which they do not like to see transmitted to their ability to consume. There is also the problem created by temporary layoffs due to variation in aggregate economic activity that we refer to as business cycle fluctuations. While they are temporarily laid off and without substantial income, workers do not want their family’s consumption to be severely reduced (Box 1.1).
Box 1.1
Representing Preference for Smoothness
The preference for a smooth consumption stream has a natural counterpart in the form of the utility function, U( ), which is typically used to represent the relative benefit a consumer receives from a specific consumption bundle. Suppose the representative individual consumes a single consumption good (or a basket of goods) in each of two periods, now and tomorrow. Let c1 denote today’s consumption level and c2 tomorrow’s, and let U(c1)+U(c2) represent the level of utility (benefit) obtained from a given consumption stream (c1, c2).
Preference for consumption smoothness must mean, for instance, that the consumption stream (c1,c2)=(4,4) is preferred to the alternative (c1, c2)=(3, 5), or
(4)+U(4)>U(3)+U(5)
Dividing both sides of the inequality by 2, this implies
(4)>12U(3)+12U(5)
As shown in Figure 1.1, when generalized to all possible alternative consumption pairs, this property implies that the function U(·) has the rounded shape that we associate with the term strict concavity.
Figure 1.1 A strictly concave utility representation.
Furthermore, and this is quite crucial for the growth process, some people—entrepreneurs, in particular—are willing to accept a relatively small income (but not necessarily consumption!) for an initial period of time in exchange for the prospect of high returns (and presumably high income) in the future. They are operating a sort of arbitrage over time. This does not disprove their desire for smooth consumption; rather, they see opportunities that lead them to accept what is formally a low-income level initially against the prospect of a much higher income level later (followed by a zero income level when they retire). They are investors who, typically, do not have enough liquid assets to finance their projects and, as a result, need to raise capital by borrowing or by selling shares.
Indeed, the first key element in finance is time. In a timeless world, there would be no assets, no financial transactions (although money would be used, it would have only a transaction function), and no financial markets or institutions. The very notion of a security (a financial contract) implies a time dimension.
Asset holding permits the desynchronization of consumption and income streams. The peasant putting aside seeds, the miser burying his gold, or the grandmother putting a few hundred dollar bills under her mattress are all desynchronizing their consumption and income, and in doing so, presumably seeking a higher level of well-being for themselves. A fully developed financial system should also have the property of fulfilling this same function efficiently. By that we mean that the financial system should provide versatile and diverse instruments to accommodate the widely differing needs of savers and borrowers insofar as size (many small lenders, a few big borrowers), timing, and maturity of loans (how to finance long-term projects with short-term money), and the liquidity characteristics of instruments (precautionary saving cannot be tied up permanently). In other words, the elements composing the financial system should aim at matching the diverse financing needs of different economic agents as perfectly as possible.
1.2 Desynchronization: The Risk Dimension
We have argued that time is of the essence in finance. When we talk of the importance of time in economic decisions, we think in particular of the relevance of choices involving the present versus the future. But the future is, by its very nature, uncertain: financial decisions with implications (payouts) in the future are necessarily risky. Time and risk are inseparable. This is why risk is the second key word in finance.
For the moment, let us compress the time dimension into the setting of a “Now and Then” (present versus future) economy. The typical individual is motivated by the desire to smooth consumption between “Now” and “Then.” This implies a desire to identify consumption opportunities that are as similar as possible among the different possibilities that may arise “Then.” In other words, ceteris paribus—most individuals would like to guarantee their family the same standard of living whatever events transpire tomorrow: whether they are sick or healthy, unemployed or working, confronted with bright or poor investment opportunities, fortunate or hit by unfavorable accidental events.1 This characteristic of preferences is generally described as “aversion to risk.”
A productive way to start thinking about this issue is to introduce the notion of states of nature or states of the world. A state of nature is a complete description of a possible scenario for the future across all the dimensions relevant for the...
| Erscheint lt. Verlag | 30.9.2014 |
|---|---|
| Sprache | englisch |
| Themenwelt | Recht / Steuern ► Wirtschaftsrecht |
| Wirtschaft ► Betriebswirtschaft / Management ► Finanzierung | |
| ISBN-10 | 0-12-386871-8 / 0123868718 |
| ISBN-13 | 978-0-12-386871-8 / 9780123868718 |
| Haben Sie eine Frage zum Produkt? |
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