Global lead mine production

Lead mined supply is set to increase on the back of new zinc projects. According to various industry sources over 80% of lead concentrate is currently estimated to come from operations that produce zinc as the primary ore, and the current expansion is zinc mining projects is likely to increase the proportion of lead produced as a by-product. The most important mine to have come onstream in recent years is BHP’s 180000 tonnes per year (tpy) Cannington mine in Australia, which is primarily a lead producer. But in addition, several new zinc-producing mines, also in Australia, will also yield significant amounts of lead. These include: Pillara, which will produce 34000 tpy of contained lead; Century, which will ultimately produce 45000 tpy of contained lead; and George Fisher, which will produce 100000 tpy of contained lead.

These new projects have led to a recent upturn in lead production, which in 1995 had fallen to 2 mt, its lowest level since the early 1960s. The dramatic reduction in mine output in 1995 resulted in a concentrate deficit of 150000 tonnes. In 2000, Australian mine production increased by some 2.7% compared with 1999. Although this is substantial, it is less than had been anticipated owing to the closures at Los Frailes, Faro, Woodlawn and Caribou, along with other supply disruptions.

Western World refined metal balance

It is likely that the level of Chinese net exports of refined lead metal to the West in 2001 will be constrained by the availability of suitable raw materials. They are therefore forecast to be 10% lower than in 2000. Shipments from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Eastern Europe are expected to be at a similar level to 2000.

Overall, after having also taken into consideration releases from the United States Defence National Stockpile, the forecasts indicate that demand will exceed supply in the Western World in 2001, resulting in a market deficit of 59000 tonnes.

Transport demand

Over the past twenty-five years the lead industry has witnessed sweeping changes, which have had an impact on every aspect of production, consumption and international trade. SLI batteries, used in motor vehicles for motive power, and also in standby applications, today provide the core end-use for lead. From a little over 50% of Western World demand around 1985, batteries now account for around 73% of total demand. To reach this share, use in batteries has grown at an average rate of 4% per annum since 1984. Within 10 years (2010), this share looks set to rise close to 80%. The key driver for consumption growth comes from motor vehicles.

In the Western World, the vehicle fleet is growing at an annual average rate of 3%. But substantial growth is also being seen in the emerging economies. In South East Asia, for example, vehicle fleet growth per annum is in excess of 6%.

Lead solders demand

One of the non-battery sectors where lead use has come under increasing attack is solders for the electronics industry. The concern about the use of lead in the electronics industry stems from occupational exposure, lead waste derived from the manufacturing process and the disposal of electronics assemblies. Although the use of lead by the electronics industry appears to be minimal, the potential for lead exposure cannot be ignored.

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