Decision-making Analysis and Optimization Modeling of Emergency Warnings for Major Accidents (eBook)

Wenmei Gai is a lecturer at the School of Engineering and Technology, China University of Geosciences (Beijing). She received her PhD in Safety Science and Engineering from the University of Science and Technology Beijing, China. Her research discipline is in safety science with specialisation in information dissemination, operations research and emergency management. She has published a significant number of publications in her research field of expertise. Her current research on emergency decision-making has been funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.Yan Du is a lecturer at the School of Civil and Resources Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing. His research discipline is mine emergency risk avoidance technology and harmful substances control. He has published a significant number of publications in his research field of expertise.Yunfeng Deng is a research professor at the Emergency Management Training Center, Party School of the Central Committee of C.P.C (Chinese Academy of Governance). He received his PhD in engineering from the University of Science and Technology Beijing, China; MSc from the Northeastern University, China. He is mainly engaged in the research fields of work safety, emergency management and public safety protection. From 2005 to 2012 he served as director of the Research Institute of Public Safety, China Academy of safety Sciences and Technology. In 2012 he won a Special Prize for The State Scientific and Technological Progress Award in China. From 2014 onwards he is a member of the fifth National Expert Group on Safety in Production of China.

Preface 5
Contents 7
Abstract 11
1 Introduction 12
1.1 Background 12
1.2 What Is Emergency Warning 14
1.3 Leakage Accidents and Regional Evacuation in China 16
1.3.1 The Regional Distribution of Toxic Gas Leakage Resulting in Evacuation 16
1.3.2 Statistical Analysis of Evacuation Events 17
1.4 Public Protection Methods 20
1.4.1 The Basic Process of Emergency Evacuation 20
1.4.2 Safety Requirement for Personnel Evacuation for Toxic Gas Leakage 23
1.4.3 Determining Method of Evacuation Area 26
1.5 Evacuation Scale Estimation 29
1.5.1 Population Scale Estimation Methods 29
1.5.2 The Influence Factors on the Scale of Evacuation 32
1.6 Research Status of Emergency Decisions Both at Home and Abroad 33
1.7 Research Objects and Characteristics 37
References 38
2 Emergency Warning System for Major Accidents 42
2.1 Emergency Warning System 42
2.1.1 Composition of the Early Warning System 42
2.1.2 Functions of Early Warning System 43
2.1.3 Implementation of Early Warning System 45
2.2 Literature Review on References of Emergency Early Warning Both at Home and Abroad 47
2.2.1 Public Alerting System in the United States 47
2.2.2 The Public Alerting System in Japan 49
2.2.3 Public Alert System from Other Foreign Organizations 51
2.2.4 Public Alerting System in China 52
2.3 The Design and Implementation of Early Warning System for Major Accidents 54
2.3.1 FM Broadcasting Technology Based on Different Locations 54
2.3.2 The Structure of Public Alert System Based on FM Broadcast for Different Addresses 57
2.3.3 Researches on Hardware Development of Indoor Alarm Receivers 60
2.3.4 Researches on Embedded Software Development of Indoor Alarm Receivers 65
2.4 Summary of the Chapter 74
References 74
3 Communication and Diffusion of Emergency Warning 76
3.1 An Overview of Researches on Communication and Diffusion of Emergency Warning 76
3.2 The Influence Factors of Early Warning Communication 78
3.3 General Rules for Alert Information Communication 82
3.4 Modeling of the Communication Rules of Alert for Individual Household 85
3.4.1 The Establishment of the Model 85
3.4.2 The Solution of the Model 88
3.5 The Simulation and Results Analysis of Communication Model of Alerts for Individual Household 90
3.5.1 Simulation Results and Analysis of the Communication Time 91
3.5.2 The Simulation Results and Analysis of Closeness of Social Relationship 92
3.5.3 Simulation Analysis and Results of Deployment Proportion of Alert Receivers 94
3.6 Summary of the Chapter 94
References 96
4 Regional Evacuation Modeling for Toxic Cloud Releases and Its Application in Strategy Assessment of Evacuation Warning 99
4.1 Methods 100
4.1.1 Description of Regional Evacuation Network 100
4.1.2 Diffusion of Evacuation Warning 100
4.1.3 Loading of Evacuation Flow 104
4.1.4 Movement Through Regional Evacuation Network 105
4.2 Health Consequence Analysis 109
4.2.1 Accident Consequence Simulation 109
4.2.2 Exposure Dose Calculation 109
4.2.3 Conditional Probability of Consequences 110
4.3 Case Study and Discussion in China 110
4.3.1 Preliminaries 110
4.3.2 Evacuation Efficiency Under Different Evacuation Warning Strategies 113
4.3.3 Health Consequences of Accidents Under Different Evacuation Warning Strategies 117
4.4 Summary of the Chapter 118
References 119
5 Multi-objective Route Planning Model and Algorithm for Emergency Management 122
5.1 Literature Review 122
5.2 Route Planning Model for Emergency Logistics Management 125
5.2.1 Definition of Variables and Parameters 125
5.2.2 Bounded Rationality in Decision-Making 126
5.2.3 Multi-objective Route Planning Model for Emergency Logistics Management 126
5.3 Preliminaries 127
5.3.1 Classical Algorithms to Solve Single-Objective Shortest Path Problem 127
5.3.2 Construction of Auxiliary Functions 128
5.3.3 Main-Objective Method to Deal with Multi-objective Optimization Problems 130
5.4 Proposed Heuristic Algorithm 131
5.4.1 Static Heuristic Algorithm to Solve Model I Based on A* Algorithm 132
5.4.2 Dynamic Heuristic Algorithm to Solve Model I Based on D* Algorithm 133
5.4.3 Algorithm Advantage 133
5.5 Computational Experiments 134
5.5.1 Results of Model III When ? Varies Within the Interval [0, 1] 134
5.5.2 Results of Model I in Static Environments 135
5.5.3 Results of Model I in Dynamic Environments 156
5.6 Summary of the Chapter 157
References 158
6 Evacuation Risk Assessment of Regional Evacuation for Major Accidents and Its Application in Emergency Planning 160
6.1 Evacuation Risk Assessment Process 163
6.1.1 Calculation of Received Dose 163
6.1.2 Conditional Probability Calculation of Health Consequence 167
6.1.3 Determination of Occurrence Probability 167
6.1.4 Calculation of Individual Evacuation Risk 167
6.1.5 Acceptable Risk Level 168
6.2 The Application in Emergency Planning 170
6.2.1 The Application in Emergency Preparation 170
6.2.2 Division of Risk Areas 170
6.2.3 Emergency Preparation in Each Area 171
6.3 The Application in Emergency Response 172
6.4 Summary of the Chapter 173
References 175