Forecast Verification

Forecast Verification assesses the accuracy and skill of climate prediction. This book provides a handy reference to forecast practitioners in environmental sciences, illustrating the many different statistical techniques, including simple scatter plots as well as more complex modelling techniques.

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This handy reference introduces the subject of forecast verification and provides a review of the basic concepts, discussing different types of data that may be forecast. Each chapter covers a different type of predicted quantity (predictand), then looks at some of the relationships between economic value and skill scores, before moving on to review the key concepts and summarise aspects of forecast verification that receive the most attention in other disciplines. The book concludes with a discussion on the most important topics in the field that are the subject of current research or that would benefit from future research.* An easy to read guide of current techniques with real life case studies* An up-to-date and practical introduction to the different techniques and an examination of their strengths and weaknesses* Practical advice given by some of the world's leading forecasting experts* Case studies and illustrations of actual verification and its interpretation* Comprehensive glossary and consistent statistical and mathematical definition of commonly used terms