Meteorology at the Millennium (eBook)

Cover 1
Contents 6
Foreword 12
Preface 14
Contributors 16
Part 1. Weather Prediction at the Millennium 18
Chapter 1. Predicting Uncertainty in Numerical Weather Forecasts 20
A. INTRODUCTION 20
B. THE LIOUVILLE EQUATION 20
C. THE PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION OF MODEL ERROR 22
D. PROBABILITY FORECASTING BY ENSEMBLE PREDICTION 24
E. VERIFYING PROBABILITY FORECASTS 27
F. THE ECONOMIC VALUE OF PROBABILITY FORECASTS 28
G. CONCLUDING REMARKS 29
REFERENCES 29
Chapter 2. Extratropical Cyclones An Historical Perspective 31
A. INTRODUCTION 31
B. THE THERMAL THEORY 31
C. THE BERGEN SCHOOL 32
D. BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY MODEL 34
E. POTENTIAL VORTICITY IDEAS 35
F. PREDICTABILITY, FORECASTING AND OBSERVATIONS 37
G. THE FUTURE 38
REFERENCES 39
Chapter 3. Numerical Methods for Atmospheric General Circulation Models Refinements or Fundamental Advances? 40
A. NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION 40
B. CLIMATE MODELS 41
C. NWP VERSUS CLIMATE MODELLING 42
D. FUTURE EVOLUTION OF NUMERICS 43
REFERENCES 44
Chapter 4. Mesoscale Mountains and the Larger-Scale Atmospheric Dynamics: A Review 46
A. INTRODUCTION 46
B. REGIME DIAGRAM FOR FLOW PAST TOPOGRAPHY 47
C. INTERACTIONS WITH THE BALANCED LARGER-SCALE DYNAMICS 51
D. NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF ALPINE WAKES 54
E. OUTLOOK 56
REFERENCES 58
Chapter 5. The Upscale Turbulent Cascade Shear Layers, Cyclones and Gas Giant Bands 60
A. INTRODUCTION 60
B. PAIRING IN UNSTRATIFIED SHEAR FLOW 61
C. PAIRING IN ROTATING STRATIFIED FLOW: SUBSYNOPTIC BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY 65
D. PAIRING IN VORTEX DYNAMICS ON THE SPHERE: ROSSBY-WAVE ARREST OF THE UPSCALE CASCADE AND THE PARITYŽ OF GAS GIANT BANDS 68
E. CONCLUSIONS 76
REFERENCES 77
Chapter 6. The Role of Water in Atmospheric Dynamics and Climate 79
A. HISTORICAL OVERVIEW 79
B. WATER IN ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS 81
C. WATER IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM 86
D. SUMMARY 87
REFERENCES 88
Chapter 7. New Observational Technologies Scientific and Societal Impacts 89
A. INTRODUCTION 89
B. REMOTE SENSING OF THE ATMOSPHERE 89
C. REMOTE SENSORS AND THEIR SCIENTIFIC IMPACTS 90
D. SOCIETAL IMPACTS 97
E. CONCLUSIONS 98
REFERENCES 99
Chapter 8. Turning Dynamical Ideas into Forecast Practice A Proposal for a Renewed Graphical Summary of the Synoptic Scale Situation 100
A. INTRODUCTION 100
B. THE EXISTING GRAPHICAL SUMMARY MAP: ITS IMPORTANCE AND ITS PROBLEMS 101
C. HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE 103
D. RATIONALE OF A DYNAMICALLY GROUNDED SYNOPTIC SUMMARY 105
E. EXAMPLES OF USE OF THE NEW GRAPHICAL FRAMEWORK 107
F. POTENTIAL FOR UPGRADING 115
G. CONCLUSION 118
APPENDIX: THE GRAPHICAL CODE OF ANASYG AND PRESYG 119
REFERENCES 121
Chapter 9. Weather Forecasting From Woolly Art to Solid Science 123
A. THE PREHISTORY OF SCIENTIFIC FORECASTING 123
B. THE BEGINNING OF MODERN NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION 127
C. NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION TODAY 130
D. CONCLUSIONS 133
REFERENCES 135
Part 2. Climate Variability and Change 138
Chapter 10. Problems in Quantifying Natural and Anthropogenic Perturbations to the Earth’s Energy Balance 140
A. INTRODUCTION 140
B. ESTIMATES OF THE GLOBAL-MEAN RADIATIVE FORCING 141
C. TIME VARIATION OF RADIATIVE FORCING 143
D. DEVELOPMENTS IN STUDIES OF THE INDIRECT AEROSOL EFFECT 146
E. CONCLUDING REMARKS 147
REFERENCES 148
Chapter 11. Changes in Climate and Variability over the Last 1000 Years 150
A. INTRODUCTION 150
B. THE INSTRUMENTAL PERIOD (1850–) 150
C. EARLY EUROPEAN INSTRUMENTAL RECORDS 154
D. THE PRE-INSTRUMENTAL PERIOD (BACK TO 1000) 154
E. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS 157
REFERENCES 158
Chapter 12. Climatic Variability over the North Atlantic 160
A. INTRODUCTION 160
B. WHAT IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION AND HOW DOES IT IMPACT REGIONAL CLIMATE? 160
C. WHAT ARE THE MECHANISMS THAT GOVERN NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION VARIABILITY? 161
D. CONCLUDING COMMENTS ON OTHER ASPECTS OF NORTH ATLANTIC CLIMATE VARIABILITY 166
REFERENCES 167
Chapter 13. Prediction and Detection of Anthropogenic Climate Change 169
A. INTRODUCTION 169
B. AN EARLY GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL SIMULATION OF THE CLIMATIC EFFECTS OF INCREASES IN GREENHOUSE GASES 169
C. A RECENT SIMULATION OF THE EFFECTS OF INCREASES IN GREENHOUSE GASES 170
D. DETECTION AND ATTRIBUTION OF ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE 175
E. SOME CONCLUDING REMARKS 179
REFERENCES 180
Chapter 14. Absorption of Solar Radiation in the Atmosphere Reconciling Models with Measurements 182
A. INTRODUCTION 182
B. THE GLOBAL RADIATION BALANCE 182
C. SATELLITE MEASUREMENTS 183
D. ABSORPTION BY THE SURFACE 185
E. ABSORPTION BY THE ATMOSPHERE 185
F. DISCUSSION 189
REFERENCES 189
Chapter 15. The Impact of Satellite Observations of the Earth’s Spectrum on Climate Research 191
A. THE CLIMATE CHANGE DETECTION AND ATTRIBUTION PROBLEM 191
B. SATELLITE SPECTRAL SIGNATURES OF CLIMATE CHANGE 192
C. RECENT WORK ON SPECTRAL SIGNATURES 193
D. IRIS AND IMG: CHANGE OF OLR (v ) BETWEEN 1970 AND 1997 194
E. ANALYSIS OF IMG AND IRIS DATA 195
F. SUMMARY 198
REFERENCES 199
Part 3. The Atmosphere and Oceans 200
Chapter 16. Atlantic Air–Sea Interaction Revisited 202
A. INTRODUCTION 202
B. DATA AND MODELS 203
C. THE ANALYSIS METHOD 204
D. ATMOSPHERIC FORCING OF NORTH ATLANTIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 205
E. NORTH ATLANTIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORCING OF THE ATMOSPHERE 207
F. POTENTIAL SEASONAL PREDICTABILITY BASED ON THE ATMOSPHERE GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL 211
G. CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION 212
REFERENCES 214
Chapter 17. The Monsoon as a Self-regulating Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere System 215
A. INTRODUCTION 215
B. REGULATION OF THE MONSOON ANNUAL CYCLE 218
C. INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF THE MONSOON 223
D. GENERAL THEORY OF THE REGULATION OF THE COUPLED OCEAN–ATMOSPHERIC MONSOON SYSTEM 231
E. CONCLUSIONS 232
REFERENCES 234
Chapter 18. Laminar Flow in the Ocean Ekman Layer 237
A. INTRODUCTION 237
B. THE EFFECT OF A STABLE DENSITY GRADIENT 237
C. THE FATAL FLAW 238
D. FLOW VISUALIZATION 239
E. THE DISCOVERY OF LAMINAR FLOW 239
F. FINE STRUCTURE 239
G. WAVE-INDUCED SHEAR INSTABILITY 239
H. BILLOW TURBULENCE 240
I. REVERSE TRANSITION 241
J. REVISED PARADIGM 241
K. ONE-DIMENSIONAL MODELLING OF THE UPPER OCEAN 241
L. DIURNAL VARIATION 242
M. BUOYANT CONVECTION 242
N. BILLOW TURBULENCE IN THE DIURNAL THERMOCLINE 242
O. CONSEQUENCES FOR THE EKMAN CURRENT PROFILE 242
P. SOLAR RADIATION 243
Q. APPLICATIONS 243
R. DISCUSSION 248
S. CONCLUSION 248
REFERENCES 248
Chapter 19. Ocean Observations and the Climate Forecast Problem 250
A. INTRODUCTION 250
B. SOME HISTORY: OBSERVATIONAL AND THEORETICAL 250
C. THE PERCEPTION 251
D. THE REALITY 255
E. CONCLUSIONS BASED UPON MISAPPREHENSIONS 259
F. WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE? 260
REFERENCES 262
Part 4. The Biogeochemical System 264
Chapter 20. Biochemical Connections Between the Atmosphere and the Ocean 266
A. INTRODUCTION 266
B. THE CHEMICAL COMPOSITION OF THE EARTH’S ATMOSPHERE 267
C. AIR–SEA EXCHANGE OF GASES OF IMPORTANCE 267
D. IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC DUST ON OCEAN BIOCHEMISTRY 270
E. GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES ON BIOGEOCHEMICAL FLUXES ACROSS THE AIR–SEA INTERFACE 273
REFERENCES 274
Chapter 21. Modelling Vegetation and the Carbon Cycle as Interactive Elements of the Climate System 276
A. INTRODUCTION 276
B. MODEL DESCRIPTION 277
C. PRE-INDUSTRIAL STATE 281
D. A FIRST TRANSIENT CLIMATE–CARBON CYCLE SIMULATION 285
E. DISCUSSION 289
F. CONCLUSIONS 293
REFERENCES 294
Part 5. Middle Atmosphere and Solar Physics: Other Planets and Epochs 298
Chapter 22. Some Fundamental Aspects of Atmospheric Dynamics, with a Solar Spinoff 300
A. INTRODUCTION 300
B. THERMAL AND CHEMICAL EVIDENCE 301
C. WAVE-INDUCED MOMENTUM TRANSPORT: SOME SIMPLE EXAMPLES 304
D. THE QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION (QBO) 306
E. THE MICHELSON–MORLEY PRINCIPLE 308
F. THE NONACCELERATION CONSTRAINT 308
G. EXTRATROPICAL LATITUDES 308
H. GYROSCOPIC PUMPING 309
I. ROSSBY-AND GRAVITY-WAVE BREAKING 311
J. THE JIGSAW PUZZLE: BAROTROPIC MODELS 312
K. GENERALIZATION TO REALISTIC STRATIFIED FLOW 316
L. THE SUN’S RADIATIVE INTERIOR 316
REFERENCES 320
Chapter 23. Atmospheric Dynamics of the Outer Planets 323
A. INTRODUCTION 323
B. VOYAGER OBSERVATIONS OF WINDS AND TEMPERATURES 323
C. MODELS OF VORTICES IN SHEAR 325
D. GALILEO PROBE AND VERTICAL STRUCTURE 326
E. GALILEO ORBITER OBSERVATIONS OF WATER AND LIGHTNING 329
REFERENCES 332
Chapter 24. Palaeoclimate Studies at the Millennium The Role of the Coupled System 333
A. INTRODUCTION 333
B. PRE-QUATERNARY PALAEOCLIMATES 333
C. QUATERNARY PALAEOCLIMATES 335
D. SUBORBITAL TIMESCALE VARIABILITY 340
E. CONCLUSIONS 340
REFERENCES 341
Index 344