Mediterranean Climate Variability (eBook)

Cover 1
Abridged Contents 6
Contents 8
Preface 14
The Mediterranean Climate: An Overview of the Main Characteristics and Issues 18
The Mediterranean Region: Climate and Characteristics 18
Regional Processes and Links to the Global Climate 23
Climate Trends and Change at Regional Scale 28
Socio-environmental Aspects 31
Acknowledgements 34
References 35
Mediterranean Climate Variability over the Last Centuries: A Review 44
Introduction 46
Past Regional Mediterranean Climate Evidence and Extremes 49
Evidence from Early Instrumental and Documentary Data 49
Iberian Peninsula 56
France 62
Italy 64
Southern Balkans, Greece and Eastern Mediterranean 68
Northern Africa 70
Ship Logbooks as a New Documentary Proxy for Past Mediterranean Climate 70
Evidence from Natural Proxies 74
Tree-Ring Information from the Iberian Peninsula and Italy 79
Tree-Ring Information from South Eastern Europe and Eastern Mediterranean 80
Tree-Ring Information from Northern Africa 83
Speleothems 84
Corals 86
Evidence from Lower Resolution Natural Proxies and New Marine Archives 88
Subsurface temperature information in the Mediterranean from borehole data 88
Mediterranean sea temperatures and sea-water chemistry derived from Vermetids, non-—tropical, and deep-sea corals 90
Large-Scale Climate Reconstructions and Importance of Proxy Data for the Mediterranean 94
Mediterranean Winter Temperature and Precipitation Variability over the Last 500 Years 100
Connection between the Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation and Mediterranean Winter Climate over the Last Centuries 115
Major Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Associated with Mediterranean Winter Climate Anomalies 115
Mediterranean Climate Variability since the Mid-Seventeenth Century in Terms of Large-Scale Circulation Dynamics 120
Running Correlation Analysis between the Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation and Mediterranean Winter Climate over the Last Centuries 122
Teleconnection Studies with Other Parts of the Northern Hemisphere 126
Mediterranean Winter Temperature and Precipitation Reconstructions in Comparison with the ECHO-G and HadCM3 Coupled Models 130
Past Climate Variability and its Relations to Volcanism, Solar Activity and GHG Concentrations: Reconstructions and Models 134
Conclusions 136
Outlook 139
Acknowledgements 142
References 143
Relations between Climate Variability in the Mediterranean Region and the Tropics: ENSO, South Asian and African Monsoons, Hurricanes and Saharan Dust 166
Introduction 166
ENSO Impact on the Mediterranean Climate 167
ENSO and Eastern Mediterranean (EM) Rainfall 168
ENSO and the Western Mediterranean Relationship 171
ENSO and Extreme Mediterranean Rainfall 173
Transient and Stationary Waves Approach 174
Possible Coupling Mechanism of ENSO and the Mediterranean 174
South Asian Monsoon Variability and the Mediterranean Climate 176
Mediterranean Climate and South Asian Rainfall 177
African Monsoon Impact on the Climate of the Mediterranean 178
Tropical Cyclones' Impact on the Mediterranean Climate 179
Tropical Intrusions into the Mediterranean Basin 181
Mediterranean Dust Transport from Sahara 182
Conclusions and Outlook 185
Future Research on ENSO Impact on Mediterranean Climate 187
Future Research on South Asian Monsoon Variability and the Mediterranean Climate 187
Future Research on African Monsoon Impacts on the Climate of the Mediterranean 188
Future Research on Tropical Intrusions into the Mediterranean Basin 188
Acknowledgements 189
References 189
Relations between Variability in the Mediterranean Region and Mid-Latitude Variability 196
Introduction 197
Mid-Latitude Modes of Atmospheric Variability and their Impact 199
The North Atlantic Oscillation Pattern 200
The Eastern Atlantic and Eastern Atlantic/Western Russia Patterns 204
The Scandinavian and Blocking Patterns 206
Other Modes 208
Temperature Variability 209
Precipitation Variability 210
Trends 215
Temperature Trends 215
Precipitation Trends 219
Contributing Factors for Observed Temperature and Precipitation™Trends 221
Other Important Forcing Factors 229
Tropical and Extratropical SST 229
Solar Variability 230
Future Outlook 232
Acknowledgements 235
References 236
Changes in the Oceanography of the Mediterranean Sea and their Link to Climate Variability 244
Introduction 244
The Forcing of the Mediterranean Sea 246
Air& ndash
River Outflow 248
Exchanges through the Strait of Gibraltar 252
The Exchange with the Black Sea 253
The Mediterranean Overturning Circulation 256
The Modification of the Atlantic Inflow 256
Intermediate Water Formation 258
Deep Water Formation in the Eastern Mediterranean 260
Deep Water Formation in the Western Mediterranean 262
Climatic Changes in the Mediterranean Sea Circulation 263
Multidecadal Trends in Water Mass Characteristics 263
Rapid Changes: The Eastern Mediterranean Transient 266
What Caused the EMT? 268
mk4004sec16sec16 269
Where did the Deep Water Formation Take Place? 272
How Much Deep Water was Produced by the EMT? 273
Why did the EMT Happen? 274
The Impact of Large-Scale Atmospheric Variability on the Mediterranean Sea 277
Sea Level Changes in the Mediterranean Sea 278
Extreme Sea Levels 280
Changes in the Wind-wave Field 282
Outlook and Future Challenges 285
Acknowledgements 287
References 287
The Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea as Connected Systems 300
Introduction 300
Mediterranean Outflow vs. Mediterranean Internal Variability 301
Description of Numerical Model 302
Zonal and Meridional Cells 302
Mean State and Variability 303
Timescales of Mediterranean Thermohaline Circulation 304
Decadal Oscillations in the Mediterranean Sea 310
The Strait of Gibraltar: A Gate to the Atlantic 316
Spreading of Mediterranean Outflow Water in the North Atlantic 320
Dynamics of Mediterranean Outflow Water 322
mk4005sec11asec11a 322
Meddies 322
Mediterranean Undercurrent 323
Mediterranean Outflow Water and Stability and Variability of™Meridional Overturning Circulation 324
Modelling of Mediterranean Outflow Water 327
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Simplified Models 327
General Circulation Model Studies 328
Discussion and Future Challenges 331
References 333
Cyclones in the Mediterranean Region: Climatology and Effects on the Environment 342
Introduction 342
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Mediterranean Cyclones: Data, Methods and Dynamics 346
Dynamics of Cyclones in the Mediterranean Region 346
Available Sets of Data 349
Methodology 350
Climatology of Cyclones in the Mediterranean 354
Characteristics, Sub-Areas of Cyclogenesis, Seasonality and™Generation™Mechanisms 354
The Role of Large-Scale Climate Patterns on the Mediterranean™Cyclones 359
Trends 360
Weather Patterns and Mediterranean Environment 361
Precipitation 362
Strong Winds 368
Storm Surge 370
Wind Waves 374
Landslides 377
Conclusions 379
Outlook 381
Acknowledgements 382
References 382
Regional Atmospheric, Marine Processes and Climate Modelling 390
Introduction 390
Teleconnection Patterns from the Mediterranean Region 393
Mediterranean Thermohaline Circulation and its Sensitivity to Atmospheric Forcing 396
Sensitivity of the Mediterranean Thermohaline Circulation to Anthropogenic Global Warming 398
Current Status of Mediterranean Regional Climate Modelling 403
Atmosphere-Sea Coupled Modelling 404
Perspectives and Outlooks 407
High-Resolution Mediterranean Climate Modelling Systems 408
Development and Validation of Integrated Regional Modelling Systems 409
Acknowledgements 410
References 410
The Mediterranean Climate Change under Global Warming 416
Introduction 416
Global-Coupled Climate Models 417
Regional Climate Scenarios 422
Statistical Downscaling 422
RCM Simulations 423
AGCM Simulations with Variable Resolution 424
Impacts on Land Surface and Vegetation 429
Future Research 430
References 430
Subject Index 434