Dynamical Paleoclimatology (eBook)

Cover 1
Contents 8
Prologue 16
Acknowledgments 20
List of Symbols 22
Part I: Foundations 32
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION: The Basic Challenge 34
1.1 The Climate System 34
1.2 Some Basic Observations 35
1.3 External Forcing 40
1.4 The Ice-Age Problem 45
CHAPTER 2. TECHNIQUES FOR CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION 48
2.1 Historical Methods 48
2.2 Surficial Biogeologic Proxy Evidence 49
2.3 Conventional Nonisotopic Stratigraphic Analyses of Sedimentary Rock and Ice 51
2.4 Isotopic Methods 54
2.5 Nonisotopic Geochemical Methods 57
2.6 Dating the Proxy Evidence (Geochronometry) 58
CHAPTER 3. A SURVEY OF GLOBAL PALEOCLIMATIC VARIATIONS 61
3.1 The Phanerozoic Eon (Past 600 My) 62
3.2 The Cenozoic Era (Past 65 My) 65
3.3 The Plio-Pleistocene (Past 5 My) 66
3.4 Variations during the Last Ice Age: IRD Events 68
3.5 The Last Glacial Maximum (20 ka) 69
3.6 Postglacial Changes: The Past 20 ky 70
3.7 The Past 100 Years 71
3.8 The Generalized Spectrum of Climatic Variance 72
3.9 A Qualitative Discussion of Causes 75
CHAPTER 4. GENERAL THEORETICAL CONSIDERATIONS 78
4.1 The Fundamental Equations 78
4.2 Time Averaging and Stochastic Forcing 82
4.3 Response Times and Equilibrium 86
4.4 Spatial Averaging 91
4.5 Climatic-Mean Mass and Energy Balance Equations 94
CHAPTER 5. SPECIAL THEORETICAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR PALEOCLIMATE: Structuring a Dynamical Approach 99
5.1 A Basic Problem: Noncalculable Levels of Energy and Mass Flow 100
5.2 An Overall Strategy 103
5.3 Notational Simplifications for Resolving Total Climate Variability 105
5.4 A Structured Dynamical Approach 107
5.5 The External Forcing Function, F 113
CHAPTER 6. BASIC CONCEPTS OF DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS ANALYSIS : Prototypical Climatic Applications 115
6.1 Local (or Internal) Stability 115
6.2 The Generic Cubic Nonlinearity 117
6.3 Structural (or External) Stability: Elements of Bifurcation Theory 118
6.4 Multivariable Systems 123
6.5 A Prototype Two-Variable Model 126
6.6 The Prototype Two-Variable System as a Stochastic-Dynamical System: Effects of Random Forcing 134
6.7 More Than Two-Variable Systems: Deterministic Chaos 139
Part II: Physics of the Separate Domains 142
CHAPTER 7. MODELING THE ATMOSPHERE AND SURFACE STATE AS FAST-RESPONSE COMPONENTS 144
7.1 The General Circulation Model 145
7.2 Lower Resolution Models: Statistical-Dynamical Models and the Energy Balance Model 146
7.3 Thermodynamic Models 150
7.4 The Basic Energy Balance Model 152
7.5 Equilibria and Dynamical Properties of the Zero-Dimensional (Global Average) EBM 154
7.6 Stochastic Resonance 158
7.7 The One-Dimensional (Latitude-Dependent) EBM 160
7.8 Transitivity Properties of the Atmospheric and Surface Climatic State: Inferences from a GCM 163
7.9 Closure Relationships Based on GCM Sensitivity Experiments 165
7.10 Formal Feedback Analysis of the Fast-Response Equilibrium State 170
7.11 Paleoclimatic Simulations 174
CHAPTER 8. THE SLOW-RESPONSE 'CONTROL" VARIABLES: An Overview 177
8.1 The Ice Sheets 178
8.2 Greenhouse Gases: Carbon Dioxide 180
8.3 The Thermohaline Ocean State 182
8.4 A Three-Dimensional Phase-Space Trajectory 185
CHAPTER 9. GLOBAL DYNAMICS OF THE ICE SHEETS 189
9.1 Basic Equations and Boundary Conditions 189
9.2 A Scale Analysis 194
9.3 The Vertically Integrated Ice-Sheet Model 197
9.4 The Surface Mass Balance 199
9.5 Basal Temperature and Melting 200
9.6 Deformable Basal Regolith 202
9.7 Ice Streams and Ice Shelves 203
9.8 Bedrock Depression 203
9.9 Sea Level Change and the Ice Sheets: The Depression-Calving Hypothesis 204
9.10 Paleoclimatic Applications of the Vertically Integrated Model 207
9.11 A Global Dynamical Equation for Ice Mass 208
CHAPTER 10. DYNAMICS OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 212
10.1 The Air-Sea Flux, Q& #8593
10.2 Terrestrial Organic Carbon Exchange, WG& #8593
10.3 Outgassing Processes, V& #8593
10.4 Rock Weathering Downdraw, W& #8595
10.5 A Global Dynamical Equation for Atmospheric CO2 231
10.6 Modeling the Tectonically Forced CO2 Variations, µ: Long-Term Rock Processes 231
10.7 Overview of the Full Global Carbon Cycle 236
CHAPTER 11. SIMPLIFIED DYNAMICS OF THE THERMOHALINE OCEAN STATE 237
11.1 General Equations 239
11.2 A Prototype Four-Box Ocean Model 241
11.3 The Wind-Driven, Local-Convective, and Baroclinic Eddy Circulations 242
11.4 The Two-Box Thermohaline Circulation Model: Possible Bimodality of the Ocean State 247
11.5 Integral Equations for the Deep Ocean State 257
11.6 Global Dynamical Equations for the Thermohaline State: . and Sf 260
Part III: Unified Dynamical Theory 264
CHAPTER 12. THE COUPLED FAST- AND SLOW-RESPONSE VARIABLES AS A GLOBAL DYNAMICAL SYSTEM: Outline of a Theory of Paleoclimatic Variation 266
12.1 The Unified Model: A Paleoclimate Dynamics Model 267
12.2 Feedback-Loop Representation 269
12.3 Elimination of the Fast-Response Variables: The Center Manifold 272
12.4 Sources of Instability: The Dissipative Rate Constants 273
12.5 Formal Separation into Tectonic Equilibrium and Departure Equations 275
CHAPTER 13. FORCED EVOLUTION OF THE TECTONIC-MEAN CLIMATIC STATE 278
13.1 Effects of Changing Solar Luminosity and Rotation Rate 279
13.2 General Effects of Changing Land–Ocean Distribution and Topography ( h) 280
13.3 Effects of Long–Term Variations of Volcanic and Cosmic Dust and Bolides 284
13.4 Multimillion–Year Evolution of CO2 286
13.5 Possible Role of Salinity-Driven Instability of the Tectonic- Mean State 291
13.6 Snapshot Atmospheric and Surficial Equilibrium Responses to Prescribed y-Fields Using GCMs 292
CHAPTER 14. THE LATE CENOZOIC ICE-AGE DEPARTURES: An Overview of Previous Ideas and Models 293
14.1 General Review: Forced vs. Free Models 293
14.2 Forced Ice-Line Models (Box 1, Fig. 14-1) 297
14.3 Ice-Sheet Inertia Models 298
14.4 The Need for Enhancement of the Coupled Ice-SheetlAtmospheric Climate Models 302
14.5 Ice-Sheet Variables Coupled with Additional Slow-Response Variables 303
14.6 Carbon Dioxide, µ (Box 10) 305
14.7 Summary 307
CHAPTER 15. A GLOBAL THEORY OF THE LATE CENOZOIC ICE AGES : Glacial Onset and Oscillation 309
15.1 Specialization of the Model 310
15.2 The 100-ky Oscillation as a Free Response: Determination of the Adjustable Parameters 313
15.3 Milankovitch Forcing of the Free Oscillation 317
15.4 Structural Stability as a Function of the Tectonic CO2 Level 319
15.5 A More Complete Solution 321
15.6 Predictions 326
15.7 Robustness and Sensitivity 328
15.8 Summary: A Revival of the CO2 Theory of the Ice Ages 329
CHAPTER 16. MILLENNIAL-SCALE VARIATIONS 332
16.1 Theory of Heinrich Oscillations 334
16.2 Dynamics of the D-O Scale Oscillations 342
CHAPTER 17. CLOSING THOUGHTS: EPILOGUE 345
17.1 Toward a More Complete Theory 345
17.2 Epilogue: The Ice AgesŽ and PhysicsŽ 349
Bibliography 352
Index 374
List of Volumes in the Series 382
Color Plate Section 386