Mastering Risk Modelling

       Conventions
       Overview

     

1     Introduction

       Scope of the book

       Example model

       Objectives of risk modelling

       Summary

      

2     Review of model design

       Introduction

       Design objectives

       Common errors

       Excel features

       Formats

       Number formats

       Lines and borders

       Colour and patterns

       Specific colour for inputs and results

       Data validation

       Controls – combo boxes and buttons

       Conditional formatting

       Use of functions and types of functions

       Add-ins for more functions

       Text and updated labels

       Recording a version number, author, etc.

       Using names

       Pasting a names table

       Comment cells

       Graphics

       Dynamic graphs to plot individual series

       Data tables

       Scenarios

       Spreadsheet auditing

       Summary

      

3     Risk and uncertainty

       Introduction

       Risk

       Uncertainty

       Response to risk

       Methods

       Summary

      

4     Project finance

       Introduction

       Requirements

       Advantages

       Risks

       Risk analysis

       Risk mitigation

       Financial model

       Inputs

       Sensitivity and cost of capital

       Construction, borrowing and output

       Accounting schedules

       Management analysis and summaries

       Summary

      

5     Simulation

       Introduction

       Building blocks

       Procedure

       Real estate example

       Summary

      

6     Financial analysis

       Introduction