Sense and Nonsense of Statistical Inference

Wang/, Charmont

Part 1 Fads and fallacies in hypothesis testing: examples - the t-test; a two-stage test-of-significance; more examples - a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test; mechanical application of statistical tests; data snooping; an appreciation of non-significant results; type I and type II errors - for decision making; type I and type II errors - for general scientists. Part 2 Quasi-inferential statistics: randomness or chaos? Hume's problem; unobservables, semi-unobservables and grab sets; is statistics a science?; grab sets and quasi-inferential statistics; concluding remarks - quasi- and pseudo-inferential statistics. Part 3 Statistical causality and law-like relationships: sense and nonsense in causal inference - examples; Rubin's model and controlled experiments; Rubin's model and observational studies; causal inference in sample survey and other observational studies; causes, indicators and latent variables. Part 4 Amoeba regression and time-series models: discovering causal structure - science now can be easily cloned; regression and time-series analysis - science or lunacy? (part I); regression and time-series analysis - science or lunacy? (part II); regression and time-series analysis - science or lunacy? (part III); statistical correlation versus physical causation. Part 5 A critical eye and an appreciative mind toward subjective knowledge: the sorry state of statistical evaluation - a case study in educational research; modeling interaction effects - a case study from the social-behavioural sciences. Part 6 On objectivity, subjectivity and probability: statistical justification of scientific knowledge and scientific philosophy; classical probability, common sense and a strange view of nature; intuition and subjective knowledge in action - the Bayes theorem (and its misuse); Bayesian time-series analysis and E. T. (extra time-series) judgment; a pursuit of information beyond the data in randomized and nonrandomized studies; women and love - a case study in qualitative/quantitative analysis. Part 7 A delicate balance between order and chaos: reliability; order within chaos - heartbeats, brainwaves, simulated annealing and the fiddling of a system. Part 8 The riddle of the ubiquitous statistics: information and misinformation; statistical quality control and the conflicting teachings of Q.C. Gurus. Epilogue - toward a new perspective on statistical inference.