Modelling our Changing World

Jennifer L. Castle is Tutorial Fellow in Economics at Magdalen College, Oxford University, UK and Research Fellow at the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, UK. She has published extensively on general-to-specific econometric methods in modelling linear and non-linear economic time series. David F. Hendry is Director of the Program in Economic Modelling at the Institute for New Economic Thinking and Co-director of Climate Econometrics, both at the Oxford Martin School, UK and Fellow of Nuffield College, Oxford University, UK. He was knighted in 2009, and received a Lifetime Achievement Award from the Economic and Social Research Council in 2014. He is an Honorary Vice-President and a past President of the Royal Economic Society, a Fellow of the British Academy, the Royal Society of Edinburgh, the Econometric Society, the Academy of Social Sciences, and the Journal of Econometrics, and an Honorary Fellow of the International Institute of Forecasters. He has been awarded eight Honorary Doctorates, is listed by the ISI as one of the world's 200 most cited economists, is a Thomson Reuters Citation Laureate, and has received the Guy Medal in Bronze from the Royal Statistical Society.

Chapter 1: Introduction.- Chapter 2: Key Concepts: A Series of Primers.- Chapter 3: Why is the World Always Changing?.- Chapter 4: Making Trends and Breaks Work for us.- Chapter 5: Indicator Saturation Methods.- Chapter 6: Combining Theory and Data.- Chapter 7: Seeing into the Future.- Chapter 8: Conclusions.