Coping with Demographic Change: A Comparative View on Education and Local Government in Germany and Poland (eBook)

Contents 6
Chapter-1 9
Introduction 9
References 14
Chapter-2 15
Demographic Change as a Challenge 15
2.1 Current Demographic Structure in Germany and Poland 17
2.2 Determinants of Lower Fertility Rates 19
2.3 Determinants of Mortality Decline 23
2.4 Determinants of Migration Patterns 24
2.4.1 Structural Components 25
2.4.2 Patterns of Migration in the Individual Life Course 26
2.4.3 Networks 27
2.4.4 Border Regimes 28
2.4.5 Hybrid Forms 29
References 30
Chapter-3 33
How Do Societies Cope with Complex Demographic Challenges? A Model 33
3.1 A Short Review 34
3.2 Demographic Ways of Coping with Demographic Change 38
3.3 Non-demographic Ways of Coping with Demographic Change 40
3.3.1 Problem Framing 40
3.3.2 Coping 44
3.3.3 Institution 49
3.3.3.1 Do Public Labour Markets Lack Flexibility? 52
3.3.3.2 Peculiarities of Public Sector Labour Markets: Professions and Civil Servants 53
3.3.3.3 Demographic Change and the Division of Labour 55
3.3.4 Mentalities 56
3.4 Short Summary 59
References 61
Chapter-4 66
Data Sets and Methods Used 66
4.1 Methodologies for Studying Coping with Demographic Change 66
4.2 The Data Sets Created and Used 67
4.3 Approach to Data Analysis 71
Electronic Supplementary Material 71
References 72
Chapter-5 73
Why do Municipalities ‘Think’ in Demographic Terms? Governing by Population Numbers in Germany and Poland 73
5.1 Introduction 73
5.2 Is Demographic Change Relevant to Public Sector Organisations? 75
5.3 In-kind Calculation of Municipal Services Based on Population Numbers 79
5.3.1 Municipal Tasks and Territorial Reforms 80
5.3.2 In-kind Calculation of Human Resources 84
5.3.3 Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations 87
5.4 Demographic Responsiveness of Local Government Revenues in Germany and Poland 90
5.4.1 Empirical Strategy: Panel Analysis 91
5.4.2 Data Sources and Coverage 91
5.4.3 Operationalisation of Variables 92
5.4.4 Empirical Results 93
5.5 Conclusion 96
Electronic Supplementary Material 97
References 97
Chapter-6 101
Coping with Demographic Decline in German and Polish Municipalities 101
6.1 Introduction 101
6.2 Comparing Municipal Framing and Coping Strategies 103
6.3 Growth Frames and the Expansion of Public Services 104
6.3.1 Maintaining “Skilled Employment” 105
6.3.2 Fertility Decline as an Opportunity for Task Expansion 107
6.3.3 Professionalising the Local Public Administration Workforce 108
6.4 Demographisation Frames and Reduction Strategies 110
6.4.1 An “Incredible Loss of Residents” 111
6.4.2 Legitimate and Illegitimate Instruments of Staff Reduction 112
6.4.3 Reduction of Collective Working Hours: A Third Way? 115
6.5 Realistic Frames 116
6.6 Denial Frames 118
6.7 Reorganisation of Public Services Through Privatisation 122
6.8 Second-Order Problems of Personnel Downsizing in Internal Labour Markets 125
6.8.1 Rapidly Ageing Workforces 125
6.8.2 Mismatches of Demands and Available Staff 127
6.8.3 Skills Shortage as a Strategic Challenge 129
6.9 Conclusion 130
References 132
Chapter-7 137
Expansive Reaction to Demographic Change: The Case of the Polish Educational Sector 137
7.1 Inevitable Consequences of Demographic Change? 138
7.2 Forms of Expansion of the Polish Educational Sector at the Central and Local Government Level 141
7.2.1 Expansion Policies at the National Level 141
7.2.2 Expansion Policy at the Local Level 144
7.3 Consequences of Expansion Strategies 150
7.3.1 School Quality 150
7.3.2 Fiscal Stability 153
7.3.3 Teacher Labour Market 155
7.4 Concluding Remarks 159
References 162
Chapter-8 167
The Demographic Responsiveness of Education Demand and Supply at Different Levels of the Education System 167
8.1 Introduction 167
8.2 The Demographic Responsiveness of the Education System 169
8.3 Demographic Responsiveness of the Education System in Saxony-Anhalt 171
8.3.1 Early Childhood Education and Care 172
8.3.2 Primary and Secondary General Schools 174
8.3.3 Vocational Schools 179
8.3.4 Higher Education 182
8.3.5 Comparison Across the Levels of the Education System 185
8.4 Equal Access to Education and Economisation of Infrastructure 189
Electronic Supplementary Material 192
References 192
Chapter-9 197
Personnel Strategies of Public Sector Organisations in Response to a Declining Service Population. A Model and Empirical Evidence 197
9.1 Introduction 197
9.2 Theoretical Considerations 200
9.3 Personnel Policy in Polish Public Schools Facing Falling Enrolment 205
9.3.1 Personnel Policy Measures 205
9.3.1.1 Layoffs 205
9.3.1.2 Retirement 206
9.3.1.3 Multi-Subject Teachers 207
9.3.1.4 Fixed-Term Contracts 209
9.3.1.5 Overtime 210
9.3.1.6 Teacher Mobility Between Municipal Schools 212
9.3.2 Personnel Management Strategies 213
9.3.2.1 Retirement as a Strategic Response to the External Flexibility Problem 213
9.3.2.2 Multi-Subject Teachers and Municipal Internal Labour Markets as a Strategic Response to the Internal Flexibility Problem 215
9.3.2.3 Fixed-Term Contracts as a Strategic Response to the Problem of Uncertainty 219
9.4 Discussion 222
References 224
Chapter-10 228
Demographic Challenges and Mentalities: Modes of Reflexivity and Personnel Policy in German and Polish Municipalities 228
10.1 Introduction 228
10.2 Conceptual Considerations 229
10.3 Applied Methodology 235
10.3.1 Data Collection Design 235
10.3.2 Operationalisation 235
10.4 Empirical Results in a German-Polish Comparison 238
10.4.1 Descriptive Analyses of the Individual Items 238
10.4.2 Construction of indices and first-time application of the LACONI 241
10.4.3 How Reliable is the LACONI? 245
10.4.4 Statistical Associations Between Demography and the Modes of Collective Reflexivity 247
10.5 Conclusion 250
Electronic Supplementary Material 252
References 252
Chapter-11 255
The Consequences of Coping with Demographic Change for Fiscal Capacity of and Unemployment in German Municipalities 255
11.1 Introduction: Does Local Population Policy Matter? 255
11.2 Theoretical Concept: The Model of Frame Selection (MFS) 258
11.2.1 Frame Selection and the Definition of the Situation 258
11.2.2 Script Selection 260
11.2.3 Selection of Action 263
11.3 Methodology 266
11.3.1 Study Design 266
11.3.2 Explanandum 268
11.3.3 Hypotheses Formulation and Testing Methods 269
11.3.4 Explanatory Models and Operationalisation 271
11.4 Empirical Results 273
11.4.1 Local Fiscal Capacity 273
11.4.2 Local Labour Market 276
11.5 Conclusion 279
References 280