Rational Choice and Judgment – Decision Analysis for the Decider

REX BROWN was trained as a social scientist and statistician. He currently holds the position of Distinguished Senior Fellow in the School of Public Policy at George Mason University. He has worked as a decision--making adviser to government and business leaders, and has taught decision analysis for statistics, psychology, and management programs at Harvard Business School, Cambridge University, and the London School of Economics and Political Science.

Preface. Who Might Use This Book. Background. Substance of this Book. Pedagogy. Demands on Students and Instructor. Other Approaches, Other Materials. Author Background. Acknowledgments. Prolog: A Baby Delivery Dilemma. 1. Basics and Overview. 2. Uses of Decision Analysis. Appendix 2A: Decision Analysis Reflects on His Work. 3. Evaluating a Choice Qualitatively. 4. Quantitative Aid to Rational Choice. Appendix 4A: Business Decision Tree Example. Appendix 4B: Private Example: Study or Play? 5. Describing Outcomes. 6. Taking Preference Into Account. 7. Choice Under Uncertainty. Appendix 7A. Technical Notes. 8. Decision Aiding Strategy. Appendix 8A. Influence Sketches. 9. Aiding the Professional Decider. Appendix 9A. Environmental Regulation Case Study. 10. Assessing and Inferring Probabilities. 11. Eliciting Preferences. 12. Applied Term Project. Appendix 12A. Student Project Report. Epilog. References. Glossary of Concepts and Terms. Index.