Critical Thinking2 - A Force Multiplier (eBook)

2.1 The Delphi Technique

It is worth noting that the Delphi technique can have variations and adaptations depending on the specific context and purpose. The steps described below represent a general overview of the typical Delphi technique for Problem Analysis. The Delphi technique is a process used to debate or commonly analyze a problem by systematically gathering input and feedback from a panel of domain experts or stakeholders. It is designed to reach a consensus or “convergence of opinions” on a specific subject. The panel of experts or stakeholders is carefully selected based on their knowledge, specific domain expertise, and relevance to the discussed topic. The panel can include individuals from diverse backgrounds, representing various perspectives, experiences, and abilities. The facilitator or organizer of the Delphi technique develops an initial questionnaire or series of questions related to the point of view or problem being investigated or argued. These questions are designed to elicit informed responses and insights from the panelists.

Round ONE involves submitting the questionnaire or questions to the expert panelists. Each participant independently replies with their responses and Arguments from their vantage point of view. These responses are kept anonymous from other panelist members to encourage open and unbiased feedback and discussion. The facilitator then collects and analyzes the responses, looking for areas of agreement, disagreement, and emerging themes and trends. The results are compiled, collated, and shared as feedback with the panelists without revealing their identities. The panelists are encouraged to review the feedback, consider alternative perspectives, and refine their Arguments based on the additional collective input provided.

Round TWO of the iterative steps of the process involves sharing the compiled feedback and analysis with the expert panelists. They are then allowed to reconsider their initial responses, considering the feedback from Round ONE and the collective input.

Round THREE …

2.1.1 The Delphi Technique – Iterative Discover

Iterative discovery (also known as iterative Problem Analysis or iterative problem-solving) is at the crux of the technique and process. It refers to an approach where the process of analyzing a problem and finding a solution is conducted in multiple iterations or cycles.

The iterative discovery process involves breaking down the problem into smaller (sub)components, analyzing each part, and then revisiting and refining the analysis based on new insights gained from each iteration (cycle).

• Problem identification: The first step is clearly defining and understanding the problem. This involves gathering information, defining the scope of the problem, and naming the key objectives that will, in the end, improve efficiency, decrease production costs, and spare labor resources while yielding higher customer satisfaction scores.
• Iterative analysis: The iterative analysis step focuses on examining and evaluating data or information to gain insights, show any overt or nuanced patterns, or uncover trends. It involves repetitive data collection, analysis, interpretation, and refinement cycles to iteratively tamp down even further the understanding or achieving of specific objectives. The iterative analysis process uses various analytical methods and techniques depending on the particular problem category. These may include but are not limited to Statistical analysis, data mining, data visualization, Hypothesis testing, or exploratory data analysis. The choice of methods depends on the problem and type of situation, available data, and the goals of the investigation. This iterative feedback and revision process continues as a loop cycle until a finalized consensus or convergence of opinions appears through the multiple, successive rounds of feedback and revision of opinions. The Delphi technique aims to narrow differences and promote consensus among the panelists. The facilitator typically provides summaries of areas of agreement and disagreement to guide the expert panelists toward a collective understanding, previewing the termination of the process.

The results are compiled, summarized, and reported once a consensus or convergence of opinions is conclusively reached.

2.1.2 The Delphi Technique – Consensus of Opinions

• Clear assessment: When the problem is straightforward, and its impact or consequences are minimal, it becomes easier for people to evaluate and assess its significance. The clarity of understanding helps in aligning perspectives and forming a collective opinion.
• Objective evaluation: In situations where the problem lacks complexity or ambiguity, individuals can objectively evaluate and analyze the problem. They can assess relevant factors and corroborative evidence, leading to a convergence of opinions when participants arrive at similar or near-similar conclusions.
• Consistent information: If the available information about the problem is consistent and unambiguous, it facilitates a shared understanding among those expert panelists involved in the analysis. When everyone has access to the same data or evidence, opinions are more likely to converge toward consensus.
• Prioritize and classify: A requirement exists to evaluate the significance of the problem relative to your specific overall goals, aims, and resources. Issues need to be categorized based on their potential impact, the urgency of the situation, and alignment with Organizational and Enterprise priorities.
  1. “Low stakes” are problems with minimal impact or consequences that tend to generate less emotional reaction or sense of a personal stake in the issue. In such cases, participants may be more open to objectively considering the problem’s significance and reaching a consensus.
  2. Limited alternatives: When there are few or no workable alternatives to address the problem, it becomes easier for individuals to recognize the problem’s significance. With a lack of workable solutions or options, convergence toward consensus becomes more likely to be achieved. It is important to note that the perception of problem significance can vary among individuals, and what may be considered insignificant by one person or group may be seen as significant by another. However, in cases where the problem is objectively assessed and its impact is universally recognized as negligible, the convergence of opinions toward a finality or conclusion is more likely to occur and occur with fewer iterative cycles or rounds. All the preceding becomes decidedly more fractious, contentious, and difficult when the problem is difficult or complex.
• Final analysis and report: The facilitator analyzes the responses and discussions from the iterative rounds and summarizes the findings. The final report includes the areas of agreement, differing opinions (usually a minority position), non-conforming viewpoints, and any emerging consensus on the problem or decision. It can serve as a valuable resource for Decision-Making or as a basis for further ongoing investigation and analysis.

The Delphi technique is recognized for its usefulness in facilitating robust and unbiased discussions, mainly when complex or controversial issues are to be unraveled. By systematically gathering input, encouraging anonymity, and promoting iterative feedback, the Delphi technique allows for exploring diverse viewpoints, identifying areas of agreement, and resolving disagreements. The technique provides a structured approach to arguing a point of view by incorporating the collective wisdom and expertise of a panel of domain experts or stakeholders. Secondly, even discussing seemingly insignificant topics can also serve as a means of reinforcing inclusivity and valuing diverse perspectives voiced. Treating all subjects equally reinforces respect for each other’s interests, opinions, and cultural viewpoints. Today, cultural sensitivity, as an attribute, is particularly valued within a global multiethnic and multicultural economy. Engaging in rigorous discussions allows for exploring and wringing (out) these diverse perspectives, leading to a meaningful and more inclusive dialogue. The discussion of circumscribed topics can sometimes have far-reaching consequences or serve as gateways to more significant issues. History has shown us that trivial events or decisions can significantly impact society. The opposite, more importantly, is true: important decisions have an expected even more significant impact on society. Engaging in these discussions allows us to analyze the potential ripple effects of small to substantial matters to ensure we consider their broader implications. Breakthrough ideas can emerge from unconventional or unexpected sources, a discovery leading to groundbreaking innovative approaches to existing problems. The Delphi technique goes beyond the rudimentary Nominal Group technique (NGT), relying on a moderator to record spontaneously contributed and gathered ideas via an unsophisticated, uncoordinated brainstorming session. In contrast, The Delphi technique is more robust and iterative. The Delphi technique is used for more consequential Decision-Making. It requires more time, domain experts, anonymity, and multiple rounds (using detailed questionnaires) with secondary and tertiary questionnaires generated by the preceding questionnaire(s). Ideas generated are rank-ordered for...