Business Planning for Turbulent Times

Rafael Ramírez is James Martin Senior Research Fellow in Futures at the Institute for Science, Innovation and Society, Said Business School, University of Oxford. He co-chairs the World Economic Forum's 'Global Agenda Council on Strategic Foresight'. John W. Selsky is Associate Professor of Management, College of Business, University of South Florida Polytechnic. Kees van der Heijden is Emeritus Professor of Strategic Management at Strathclyde University Business School, Glasgow, and currently Fellow in Strategic Management at Templeton College and Said Business School, University of Oxford.

Preface * Part I * Introduction: Why Write This Book and for Whom? * Conceptual and Historical Overview * How Do Scenario Practices and Search Conferences Complement Each Other? * Reflecting on Scenario Practice: The Contribution of a Soft Systems Perspective * New Forms of Coherence for the Social Engagement of the Social Scientist: The Theory and Facilitation of Organizational Change from the Perspective of the Emery-Trist Systems Paradigm and the Ilya Prigogine School of Thought * Part II * Turbulence in the Indian Agricultural Sector: A Scenario Analysis * Swarm Planning: A New Design Paradigm Dealing with Long-Term Problems Associated with Turbulence * Designing More Effective Political Governance of Turbulent Fields: The Case of Healthcare * To What Extent Do Venezuela‘s Causal Textures Allow Scenarios to Work towards Social Dialogue? * Part III * Managing Disruptive Change and Turbulence through Continuous Change Thinking and Scenarios * Scenarios that Provide Clarity in Addressing Turbulence * From Causal Textures to Predetermined Elements to New Realities in Scenario Thinking and Practice * Conceptions of Fairness and Forming the Common Ground * Turbulence and Corporate Social Responsibility: Is There a Role for Scenarios? * Turbulence, Business Planning and the Unfolding 'Crisis': The Canary in the Mind * Part IV * Conclusion: The Conjuncture of Scenarios and Causal Textures - Contributions and Progress * Index