Rational Choice and Judgment (eBook)

REX BROWN was trained as a social scientist and statistician. He currently holds the position of Distinguished Senior Fellow in the School of Public Policy at George Mason University. He has worked as a decision-making adviser to government and business leaders, and has taught decision analysis for statistics, psychology, and management programs at Harvard Business School, Cambridge University, and the London School of Economics and Political Science.

Preface.

Who Might Use This Book.

Background.

Substance of this Book.

Pedagogy.

Demands on Students and Instructor.

Other Approaches, Other Materials.

Author Background.

Acknowledgments.

Prolog: A Baby Delivery Dilemma.

1. Basics and Overview.

2. Uses of Decision Analysis.

Appendix 2A: Decision Analysis Reflects on His Work.

3. Evaluating a Choice Qualitatively.

4. Quantitative Aid to Rational Choice.

Appendix 4A: Business Decision Tree Example.

Appendix 4B: Private Example: Study or Play?

5. Describing Outcomes.

6. Taking Preference Into Account.

7. Choice Under Uncertainty.

Appendix 7A. Technical Notes.

8. Decision Aiding Strategy.

Appendix 8A. Influence Sketches.

9. Aiding the Professional Decider.

Appendix 9A. Environmental Regulation Case Study.

10. Assessing and Inferring Probabilities.

11. Eliciting Preferences.

12. Applied Term Project.

Appendix 12A. Student Project Report.

Epilog.

References.

Glossary of Concepts and Terms.

Index.

"...the most thorough and accessible treatment of decision analysis
that I am familiar with...a comprehensive toolkit that will be
useful to anyone who seeks further practice in using the
technology." (PscyCRITIQUES, July 19, 2006)

"...a well-written textbook aimed at helping students make
better personal and professional decisions...the techniques in
the book are worthy of study." (MAA Reviews, April 8,
2006)

"...the book presents an insight on the practical application of
decision analysis in the private and public sector." (EADM
Bulletin, Autumn 2005)

"...an excellent resource for any organization or as a textbook
for decision-making courses in a variety of fields, including
public policy, business management, and systems engineering."
(SirReadaLot.org)

"This book will be particularly useful to people who must make
complex decisions for their organizations. It is very clearly
written and well-organized. General readers will find it
interesting and accessible."

--Robert Pirie, Former Under Secretary of the Navy and
Assistant Secretary of Defense

"In the 40 years since we worked together on the beginnings of
decision analysis at Harvard Business School, Brown has adapted it
to the practical needs of real deciders and become a uniquely
successful decision aider to top executives. He has distilled
this experience here for real-world deciders with unmatched
authority, clarity and candor."

--Andrew Kahr, business strategist, described as one of the
"great visionaries" of the financial world (by Joseph Nocera, A
Piece of the Action)

"This is a lively, readable, yet intellectually honest
introduction to decision analysis by one of the field's
leaders. While it does not review the scholarly literature,
it is informed by that literature. The exercises and examples
seem excellent because they are realistic (or humorous, or both).
The coverage is thorough, practical and well-written."

--Jonathan Baron, author of Thinking and Deciding