Developments in Demography in the 21st Century (eBook)

Contents 7
Contributors 9
Part I: Introduction 11
Chapter 1: Developments in Demography 12
1.1 Introduction 12
1.2 Developments in Demography: Chapter Summaries 14
Chapter 2: What’s Changing the World? A Demographer’s Perspective 19
2.1 Introduction 19
2.2 The Rising Burden of Noncommunicable Diseases 20
2.3 The Four Risk Factors that Account for Most NCDS 23
2.4 Conclusion 27
References 28
Part II: Methodological and Statistical Issues 30
Chapter 3: A Demographic Evaluation of the Stability of American Community Survey (ACS) Estimates for ACS Test Sites: 2000 to 2011 31
3.1 Introduction 31
3.2 Data and Methods 32
3.3 Characteristics for Evaluation 33
3.4 Geographic Areas 33
3.5 Time Series of Census and ACS Estimates 34
3.6 Results 35
3.6.1 Bronx County, New York: Annual ACS Estimates 36
3.6.2 Multnomah County, Oregon: 3-Year ACS Estimates 36
3.6.3 Upson County, Georgia: 5-Year ACS Estimates 38
3.6.4 Asian Population: Comparison of 5-Year ACS Estimates across Counties 39
3.6.5 Signal from the Noise 41
3.7 Conclusion 43
References 45
Chapter 4: Approaches for Addressing Missing Data in Statistical Analyses of Female and Male Adolescent Fertility 46
4.1 Introduction 46
4.2 Mechanisms: Why Are Data Missing 47
4.3 Methods for Handling Missing Data 48
4.3.1 Listwise Deletion 48
4.3.2 Mean Substitution 49
4.3.3 Mean Substitution for Subgroups 49
4.3.4 Proxy Method 49
4.3.5 Dropping the Variable(s) with Missing Data 50
4.3.6 Multiple Imputation (MI) – Three Versions 51
4.4 Data and Method 52
4.5 Results 53
4.6 Discussion 62
References 65
Chapter 5: Considering Local Measures of Poverty Using Shift-Share Techniques: A Comparative Analysis 66
5.1 Introduction 66
5.2 Shift-Share Analysis: Background 67
5.3 Local Poverty Measures and Shift-Share Analysis 68
5.4 Estimation Methodology & Data
5.4.1 One-Way Fixed Effects Model 69
5.4.2 Data 70
5.5 Findings 73
5.6 Conclusion 74
References 75
Part III: Data Issues 76
Chapter 6: Exploring Explanations for the High Net Undercount of Young Children in the 2010 U.S. Census 77
6.1 Introduction 77
6.2 The Undercount of Young Children 78
6.3 Explanations for the High Net Undercount Rate of Young Children 81
6.4 Summary 93
References 94
Chapter 7: Babies No Longer: Projecting the 100+ Population 98
7.1 Introduction and Background 98
7.2 Review of Past and Current Projections 100
7.3 Alternate Research Projections 102
7.3.1 Alternate Base Populations 102
7.3.2 Alternate Survivorship Projections 104
7.4 Summary and Conclusion 105
References 106
Chapter 8: Cohort Approaches Using Educational Data of the Czech Republic: Massification of Tertiary Education and Its Impact on Education Attainment 107
8.1 Introduction 107
8.2 Research Questions and Goals 108
8.3 Theoretical Background 109
8.3.1 The Second Demographic Transition 109
8.3.2 Trow’s Conceptions of Elite, Mass and Universal Higher Education 112
8.3.3 The Educational Attainment of the Population 114
8.4 Development of the Czech Tertiary Educational System 114
8.4.1 Indicators of Development of the Czech Tertiary System 116
8.4.2 Cohort Entry Rate 116
8.4.3 Net Entry Rate 117
8.5 Educational Attainment Forecast 120
8.6 Conclusion 125
References 126
Part IV: Issues of Health, Aging, and Mortality 128
Chapter 9: Factors Associated with Female Sterilization in Brazil 129
9.1 Introduction 129
9.2 Literature Review 131
9.3 Data and Methods 132
9.4 Results 137
9.5 Discussion 146
References 147
Chapter 10: Aging and Family Support in the State of Mexico 151
10.1 Introduction 151
10.2 Background 155
10.3 Data and Results 157
10.4 Discussion 159
References 161
Chapter 11: Intimate Homicide Mortality in Alaska 162
11.1 Introduction 162
11.2 Data and Methods 163
11.3 Demographic Features of the Subjects 164
11.4 Three Theories of Intimate Homicide 165
11.5 Results: Analyses of Twelve Cases in Alaska 167
11.6 Discussion and Conclusion 174
References 176
Chapter 12: Cognitive Decline Among the Elderly: A Comparative Analysis of Mexicans in Mexico and in the United States 177
12.1 Introduction 177
12.2 Previous Research 178
12.3 Data, Variables, and Methods 180
12.3.1 Data 180
12.3.2 Variables 182
12.3.2.1 Dependent Variable 182
12.3.2.2 Independent Variables 182
12.3.2.3 Statistical Analyses 183
12.4 Results 183
12.4.1 Total HEPESE and MHAS Surveys 183
12.5 Conclusions and Discussion 190
References 190
Part V: Issues in Social Demography 193
Chapter 13: The Urban Hierarchies of China and the United States 194
13.1 Introduction 194
13.2 Metropolitan and Urban Dominance 196
13.3 Data and Methods 198
13.4 Analysis and Findings 203
13.5 Conclusion 215
References 216
Chapter 14: School District Formation as an Explanation for Spatial and Temporal Dimensions of Concentrated Poverty in Bexar County, Texas 218
14.1 Introduction 218
14.2 Neighborhood Poverty in Bexar County 219
14.2.1 Historic Context 219
14.2.2 Neighborhood and School Segregation as Reinforcing Mechanisms for Bexar County Poverty 220
14.3 Explanations of Neighborhood Poverty: Review of Literature 221
14.4 Data and Methods 223
14.4.1 Independent Variables of Interest 224
14.4.2 Analytic Strategy 226
14.5 Results 227
14.6 Discussion 233
14.7 Policy Implications & Conclusions
References 237
Chapter 15: Union Formation Selectivity After Childbearing: Do Local Marriage Markets Matter? 240
15.1 Introduction 240
15.2 Marriage Selectivity 242
15.3 Marital Search 244
15.4 Research Aims and Expectations 244
15.5 Data and Methods 245
15.5.1 Sample Selection and Characteristics 245
15.5.2 Dependent Variable 248
15.5.3 Marriage Market Conditions 249
15.5.4 Social Learning Characteristics 249
15.5.5 Control Variables 250
15.5.6 Partner/Wife Characteristics 251
15.6 Analysis 251
15.7 Results 251
15.8 Discussion and Conclusion 259
Appendix 261
References 263
Chapter 16: Minority Student Participation in International Programs 265
16.1 Introduction 265
16.2 Review of Literature 266
16.3 International Education at Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) 268
16.4 Methodology 269
16.4.1 Population and Sample 269
16.4.2 Survey Design 270
16.5 Analysis 270
16.5.1 Sociodemographic Characteristics of the Study Respondents 271
16.5.2 General Attitudes and Abilities 273
16.5.3 Foreign Language Proficiency and Ability 276
16.5.4 Formal International Education and Travel Experiences 277
16.5.5 Perceived Benefits After Traveling Outside the U.S. for Academic Purposes 277
16.6 Conclusion 277
References 280
Chapter 17: Community Well-being and Mexican Interstate Migration in the United States 284
17.1 Introduction 284
17.2 Measurement of Mexican Interstate Migration 285
17.3 A Gravity Model and an Ecological Model of Migration 289
17.4 Data and Methods 291
17.5 Results 294
17.6 Discussion 297
References 299
Chapter 18: Family Values and Work in the Mississippi Delta: Effects of Marriage and Employment on the Well-being of TANF Participants 301
18.1 Introduction 301
18.2 Review of Literature 302
18.2.1 Marriage 302
18.2.2 Work 303
18.2.3 Marriage, Employment, & Economic Wellbeing
18.3 Data and Methods 306
18.3.1 Data 306
18.3.2 Estimation Methods 309
18.3.3 Dependent Variables 309
18.3.4 Independent Variables 310
18.3.4.1 Employment and Marital Transitions 310
18.3.4.2 Characteristics of the Spouse 311
18.3.4.3 Characteristics of Work 311
18.3.4.4 Location 311
18.3.4.5 Controls 311
18.4 Results 312
18.4.1 Logistic Regression Models 313
18.4.2 Simulations 317
18.5 Summary and Conclusion 321
References 322
Index 325