The Future of the ASEAN Economic Integration (eBook)

Kiki Verico is a senior researcher and lecturer at the Faculty of Economics & Business, University of Indonesia (FEB UI), where he was awarded the prize for Best Young Researcher in 2015. He has published several articles in academic journals and newspapers. Among his research interests are  regional economic integration, Southeast Asian economy, ASEAN, comparative economic cooperation, international trade and Foreign Direct Investment.  

Dedication 5
Preface 6
ASEAN in Descriptive Data View 7
Acknowledgements 19
Contents 20
List of Figures 24
List of Tables 26
List of Models 28
List of Abbreviations 29
1: General Introduction 32
1.1 Context 32
1.2 ASEAN Economic Cooperation’s Overview 34
1.3 Purpose 37
1.4 Proposition 38
1.5 Question 38
1.6 Theoretical Framework 39
1.7 The Observed Countries 47
1.8 Original Contribution 51
1.9 Data Sources 53
Notes 54
2: The Impact of ASEAN FTA: Regional Level Analysis 56
2.1 Context 56
2.2 Purpose 58
2.3 References Review 58
2.3.1 Factors of FDI Flows 59
2.3.2 FDI Flows and ASEAN Economic Integration 73
2.3.3 Intra-regional Trade and Its Impact on FDI Inflows 77
2.3.4 ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA): Historical Approach 83
2.3.5 ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA): Political-Economy Approach 89
2.3.6 Theory of Comprehensive Regional Integration 93
2.3.7 Overview: Comprehensive Regional Economic Integration in ASEAN 100
2.4 Proposition 115
2.4.1 Independent Variable 117
2.5 Method 125
2.5.1 Econometric Analysis: Non-system Analysis of Original TSLS 126
2.5.2 Econometric Analysis: System Analysis of Seemingly Unrelated Regressions Estimator (SURE) 127
2.5.3 Econometric Analysis: System Analysis of Simultaneous Equation Models Estimator (SEME) for AFTA 128
2.6 Analysis 128
2.6.1 The Impact of AFTA and Intra-regional Trade on Aggregate FDI Inflows (Investment Creation): Non-system Equations of Panel Data 128
2.6.2 The Impact of AFTA and Intra-regional Trade to Aggregate FDI Inflows (Investment Creation): System Equations of SURE and 3SLS (SEME) of Panel Data 131
2.7 Conclusion 137
Notes 139
3: The Impact of Bilateral FTA: Bilateral Level Analysis 143
3.1 Context 143
3.2 Purpose 145
3.3 References Review 146
3.4 Proposition 158
3.5 Method 158
3.6 Analysis 160
3.7 Conclusion 169
Notes 171
4: The Impact of the International Tripartite Rubber Organization (ITRO): Sub-Regional Level Analysis 175
4.1 Context 175
4.2 Purpose 179
4.3 Literature Review 179
4.3.1 Overview: ASEAN’s Sub-Regional Economic Organizations 180
4.3.2 History of Natural Rubber and the International Tripartite Rubber Organization (ITRO) 181
4.3.3 Learning from European Economic Integration: From the ECSC to Now 183
4.3.4 Oligopoly (Duopoly) Market Power of Cournot: Nash 185
4.4 Proposition 189
4.5 Method: Macroeconomic Approach 191
4.6 Method: Microeconomic Approach 192
4.7 Analysis 196
4.7.1 Macroeconomic Approach 196
4.7.2 Microeconomic Approach 202
4.7.3 Input Output Analysis on Rubber Production in Indonesia in 2000 and 2005 207
4.8 Conclusion 209
Notes 211
5: The ASEAN Economic Community of 2015 and Beyond 215
5.1 Context 215
5.2 Purpose 218
5.3 Proposition 218
5.4 Method 218
5.5 Analysis 219
5.5.1 Regional Production Network of ASEAN: Literature and Desk-Research 219
5.5.2 The role of ASEAN+1 222
5.5.3 Unilateralism and Service-Sector Liberalization 224
5.5.4 Featuring: Indonesia’s 2015 Field Survey of the AEC3 229
5.6 Conclusion 231
Notes 231
6: The Future of ASEAN’s Financial Integration 233
6.1 Context 233
6.2 Purpose 237
6.3 Literature Review 237
6.4 Proposition 242
6.5 Methodology 242
6.6 Result Analysis 244
6.7 Conclusion 248
Notes 250
7: General Conclusion 252
7.1 Executive Summary for the Future of ASEAN Economic Integration 258
Notes 261
Appendix 262
Bibliography 285
Source of Data 296
Index 297