Global Mapping of Infectious Diseases (eBook)

Front cover 1
Title page 4
Copyright page 5
Contributors to Volume 62 6
Series Editors’ Preface 8
Guest Editors’ Preface 10
Table of contents 14
Models for Vectors and Vector-Borne Diseases 20
A Brief History of Distribution Modelling 21
Families of Distribution Models 23
Logistic Models: The Theory 23
Discriminant Analysis Models: The Theory 29
Predictor Variable Selection in Distribution Models 31
What to do with Sparse Datasets? 33
Bootstrap Sampling 34
Environmental Envelope Expansion 36
Incorporating Spatial Information Into Models 38
Model Selection and Multi-Model Inference 40
Application to Vector and Disease Mapping 45
Conclusion 49
Acknowledgements 52
References 52
Global Environmental Data for Mapping Infectious Disease Distribution 56
Introduction 57
The AVHRR Sensor 58
History and Overview 58
AVHRR Archives 60
From Digital to Environmental Data 60
Temporal Range 60
Data Obtained and File Sizes 61
Geo-Registration and Projection 62
Rescaling 62
Quality Control and Data Pre-Processing 64
Temporal Fourier Analysis (TFA) 68
History and Application 68
Fourier Data Products 69
Inter-Comparison of TFA Surfaces 70
Future Global Environmental Data 76
Terra, Aqua and Modis 76
Other Satellite Sensors 77
Geostationary Satellites 77
Landsat 82
SPOT 83
ADEOS 83
Data Continuity and NPOESS 84
Other Data Sources 86
Digital Elevation 86
Gridded Climatologies 87
The Africa Data Dissemination Service (ADDS) 88
Gridded Human Population Data 88
Administrative Boundary Data 88
Global Landcover Facility (GLCF) 88
Conclusions 89
Acknowledgements 89
References 90
Issues of Scale and Uncertainty in the Global Remote Sensing of Disease 98
Introduction 99
Indirect Relations 100
Sensor Characteristics 101
Choice of Modelling Framework 103
The Image Processing Chain 104
Issues of Scale and Spatial Resolution 105
Preliminaries 105
Measurement Scales 107
The Support 107
Spatial Resolution 108
Spatial Extent 108
Scale(s) of Spatial Variation 109
Characterizing Spatial Variation 109
Upscaling and Downscaling the Data 112
Upscaling and Downscaling the Model 114
Issues of Uncertainty 115
Preliminaries 115
Uncertainty in Data and Methods 116
Data-Based Accuracy Assessment 118
Categorical Variables 118
Continuous Variables 121
Cross-Validation 121
Model-Based Accuracy Assessment 122
Continuous Variables 122
Categorical Variables 123
Validation of Global Disease Maps: Some Considerations 124
Satellite Sensor Datasets Used in this Volume 125
Summary 126
Acknowledgements 127
References 127
Determining Global Population Distribution: Methods, Applications and Data 138
Introduction 139
Rendering Population on a Global Grid 140
Institutional Stewardship 141
Data 143
Gridded Population of the World 146
Global Rural Urban Mapping Project 147
Accessibility Modeling 149
Highly Modeled Surfaces 151
Methodology 152
Adjusting Population Estimates to Target Years 152
Boundary Matching Over Time 154
Temporal Aspects of Ancillary Data for Modeled Population Grids 154
Limitations of the Ancillary Data 155
Health Applications 157
General Health Studies 158
Specific Diseases 159
Discussion 163
Ideal Spatial Resolution 164
Conclusion 166
Data Dissemination 167
Data Selection 168
Methods and Issues in Analysis 169
Acknowledgements 170
References 170
Defining the Global Spatial Limits of Malaria Transmission in 2005 176
Introduction 177
The Distribution of Malaria Risk from Travel Guidelines 178
The Biological Limits of Transmission 180
Altitudinal Mask 180
Climate Suitability Mask 186
Population Density Mask 186
Distinguishing P. falciparum and P. vivax risk 188
Regional Analysis 188
Discussion 192
Conclusions 193
Acknowledgements 194
References 194
The Global Distribution of Yellow Fever and Dengue 200
Introduction 201
The Pathogens 202
Yellow Fever 202
History 202
Symptoms 203
Epidemiology 203
Distribution and Impacts 205
Control 207
Dengue 208
History 208
Symptoms 209
Epidemiology 210
Distribution and Impacts 211
Control 212
Materials and Methods 212
Existing Maps 212
Archive and Literature Searches 213
Yellow Fever Data 215
Dengue Fever Data 216
Environmental Data from Satellites 217
The Modelling Approach 218
Results 219
Risk Maps for Yellow Fever and Dengue 219
Overall Model Accuracy 220
Importance of Individual Variables 221
Variability of Bootstrap Results 222
Populations at Risk 224
Discussion 227
Conclusion 228
Acknowledgements 229
References 230
Global Epidemiology, Ecology and Control of Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infections 240
Introduction 241
Transmission Dynamics and the Environment 243
Ecological Correlates 246
Predicting Distributions 250
Urbanization 251
Global Control Strategies 253
Control Applications of GIS/RS 256
Global Distributions 262
Predicted Numbers of Infections 265
The Future 269
Acknowledgements 271
References 271
Tick-borne Disease Systems: Mapping Geographic and Phylogenetic Space 282
Predicting Changing Risk of Infection on Evolutionary Time Scales 283
Evolutionary Emergence of Vector-Borne Pathogens 284
The Evolutionary Time Scale for Vector-Borne Flaviviruses 286
Correlates of Phylogenetic Patterns 288
Biotic Selectors 288
Geography and Phylogeny 289
Biotic Liberators, Abiotic Constraints 291
Fragile Cycles of WTBE Virus Associated with Rodents 291
Geographically Limited TBE Complex Viruses Associated with Sheep 293
Testing the Role of Climate in the Evolution of Tick-Borne Flaviviruses 295
Constructing Phenetic Eco-Climatic Trees for Viruses 296
Data Quantity and Quality 298
Composite Predictive Map for Six Viruses 300
Congruence between Phylogenetic and Eco-Climatic Trees? 302
Acknowledgements 304
References 304
Global Transport Networks and Infectious Disease Spread 312
Introduction 313
Global Transport Networks and Pandemics 314
Plague 314
Cholera 316
Influenza 317
HIV/AIDS 319
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome 320
Bioterrorism 321
Predicting, Modelling and Controlling Future Pandemics 323
Global Transport Networks and Disease Vector Invasions 325
Aedes aegypti 325
Anopheles gambiae 326
Aedes japonicus 326
Aedes albopictus 327
Predicting Future Disease Vector Invasions 327
Data Sources 330
Climatic Dendrograms 330
Risk Routes 332
Climatic Distance Images 337
Global Transport Networks and Vector-Borne Diseases 338
Yellow Fever 338
Dengue 341
West Nile Virus 341
Malaria 342
Imported Malaria Trends 342
Drug Resistance 343
Airport Malaria 345
Predicting Future Vector-Borne Disease Movement 345
Conclusions 351
Acknowledgements 351
References 352
Climate Change and Vector-Borne Diseases 364
The Mathematics and Biology of Changes in Vector-Borne Diseases 365
Defining the Criteria for Claiming Climate Impacts on Vector-Borne Diseases 370
Models for Climate Change Impacts on Vector-Borne Diseases 372
Biological and Statistical Approaches to Vector-Borne Disease Futures 374
Malaria: The Biological Approach 374
Malaria: The Statistical Approach 376
Malaria: Further Developments of Biological Models 377
Tick-Borne Encephalitis (TBE) in Europe 382
Recent Changes in Vector-Borne Diseases: Has Climate Change Already had an Impact? 385
Increased Incidence of TBE: Coincidence or Causality of Climate Change? 385
Increased Incidence of Malaria in the East African Highlands 389
Northern Spread of Bluetongue Virus into Europe 393
Conclusions 395
Acknowledgements 396
References 396
Index 402
Contents of Volumes in This Series 410
Colour Plate Section 420