INTRODUCTION TO THE FIFTY-EIGHTH EDITION

We are honored to present the 58th annual edition of the Stock Trader's Almanac. The Almanac provides you with the necessary tools and data to invest and trade successfully in the twenty-first century.

J.P. Morgan's classic retort “Stocks will fluctuate” is often quoted with a wink-of-the-eye implication that the only prediction one can make about the stock market is that it will go up, down, or sideways. Many investors and traders agree that no one ever really knows which way the market will move. Nothing could be further from the truth.

We discovered many years ago that while stocks do indeed fluctuate, they do so in well-defined, often predictable patterns. These patterns recur too frequently to be the result of chance or coincidence. How else do we explain that since 1950 the Dow has gained 31012.60 points during November through April compared to just 6588.99 May through October? (See page 54.)

The Almanac is a practical investment tool. It alerts you to those little-known market patterns and tendencies on which shrewd professionals enhance profit potential. You will be able to forecast market trends with accuracy and confidence when you use the Almanac to help you understand:

• How our presidential elections affect the economy and the stock market—just as the moon affects the tides. Many investors have made fortunes following the political cycle. You can be sure that money managers who control billions of dollars are also political cycle watchers. Astute people do not ignore a pattern that has been working effectively throughout most of our economic history.
• How the passage of the Twentieth Amendment to the Constitution fathered the January Barometer. This barometer has an outstanding record for predicting the general course of the stock market each year with only 12 major errors since 1950 for an 83.8% accuracy ratio. (See page 18.)
• Why there is a significant market bias at certain times of the day, week, month and year.

Even if you are an investor who pays scant attention to cycles, indicators, and patterns, your investment survival could hinge on your interpretation of one of the recurring patterns found within these pages. One of the most intriguing and important patterns is the symbiotic relationship between Washington and Wall Street. Aside from the potential profitability in seasonal patterns, there's the pure joy of seeing the market very often do just what you expected.

The Stock Trader's Almanac is also an organizer. Its wealth of information is presented on a calendar basis. The Almanac puts investing in a business framework and makes investing easier because it:

• Updates investment knowledge and informs you of new techniques and tools.
• Is a monthly reminder and refresher course.
• Alerts you to both seasonal opportunities and dangers.
• Furnishes a historical viewpoint by providing pertinent statistics on past market performance.
• Supplies forms necessary for portfolio planning, record keeping, and tax preparation.

The WITCH icon signifies THIRD FRIDAY OF THE MONTH on calendar pages and alerts you to extraordinary volatility due to expiration of monthly equity options, index options, index futures contracts as well as single stock and ETF futures. “Quadruple-Witching” days appear during March, June, September, and December (see page 108).

The BULL icon on calendar pages signifies favorable trading days based on the S&P 500 rising 60% or more of the time on a particular trading day during the 21-year period January 2003 to December 2023.

A BEAR icon on calendar pages signifies unfavorable trading days based on the S&P falling 60% or more of the time for the same 21-year period.

Clusters of two or more BULLs or BEARs can be especially helpful in identifying periods of strength or weakness throughout the year. Clusters can also be three out of four days or three out of five days. An example of three BULLs in four days can be observed on page 41 during the first week of April.

On pages 123–130 you will find complete Market Probability Calendars both long term and the recent 21-year period for the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ, as well as for the Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 indices. To give you even greater perspective we have listed on the weekly planner pages next to the date every day that the market is open the market probability numbers for the same 21-year period for the Dow (D), S&P 500 (S) and NASDAQ (N). You will see a “D,” “S” and “N” followed by a number signifying the actual market probability number for that trading day based on the recent 21-year period.

Other seasonalities near the ends, beginnings, and middles of months; options expirations, around holidays and other times are noted for Almanac investors' convenience on the weekly planner pages. All other important economic releases are provided in the Strategy Calendar every month in our newsletter, Almanac Investor, available at our website www.stocktradersalmanac.com. Please see the insert for a special offer for new subscribers.

One-year seasonal pattern charts for Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000, and Russell 2000 appear on pages 42, 44, and 46. There are three charts each for Dow and S&P 500 spanning our entire database starting in 1901 and one each for the younger indices. As 2025 is a post-presidential election year, each chart contains typical post-election year performance compared to all years.

The Russell 2000 is an excellent proxy for small- and mid-caps and the Russell 1000 provides a broader view of large caps. Annual highs and lows for all five indices covered in the Almanac appear on pages 151–155. Top 10 Best & Worst days, weeks, months, quarters and years for all five indices are listed on pages 174–183.

We have converted many of the paper forms in our Record Keeping section into spreadsheets for our own internal use. As a service to our faithful readers, we are making these forms available at our website www.stocktradersalmanac.com. Look for a link titled “Forms” at the bottom of the home page.

Post-presidential election years have historically been the worst year of the four-year cycle going back to the beginning of our database in 1833, the start of Andrew Jackson's second term as president, averaging a 3.3% gain on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) over the past 48 cycles since 1833. But post- election year performance has improved since WWII and dramatically so in the last 10 cycles.

Since 1985 DJIA averages a gain of 17.2% in post-election years with eight up years and two down. This is the best average gain of the four-year cycle over this period, topping the pre-election year's 15.2% average, but the pre-election year boasts nine wins and only one loss. The full four-year cycle history appears on page 132. Our 4-Year Cycle chart in our 2025 Outlook on page 10 also illustrates the more recent outperformance of the post-election year.

You can find all the market charts of post-election years from 1941 to 2021 on page 26. We breakdown “Post-Election Year Performance by Party” on page 28 which shows the market performs better under Democrats in post-election years. “Post-Election Years: Paying the Piper” on page 32 provide a concise rundown of market action and market moving events for each year since 1913. How the “Market Fares Better Under Democrats” while the “Dollar Holds Up Better Under Republicans” is detailed on page 34. We discuss market behavior under different political alignments on page 80 where we observe how a “Republican Congress & Democratic President Is Best for the Market.”

We have updated two brand new pages we featured last edition. “Bulls Win When Market Hits the January Trifecta” on page 20 shows a new indicator we built in 2013 that combines our Santa Claus Rally (page 118) and January Barometer (page 18) with the First Five Days (page 16), creating a more powerful indicator. On page 104 is a new trading strategy, “Traders Feast on Small Stocks Thanksgiving through Santa Claus Rally.”

“How To Trade Best Months Switching Strategies” appears on page 38. How “Summer Market Volume Doldrums Drives Worst Six Months” is updated on page 50. Revised sector seasonalities including several consistent shorting opportunities, appear on pages 94–98.

Our 2025 Outlook on pages 10–11 anticipates further upside in 2025 though more muted than the outsized gains we have enjoyed in 2023 and 2024 so far at this writing. The bull market is likely to continue well into 2025 with market performance in line with more recent post-election year returns.

We are constantly searching for new insights and nuances about the stock market and welcome any suggestions from our readers.

Wishing you health, happiness, and success in 2025!

2025 OUTLOOK

2024 is a unique year. We have two presidential candidates both running for second terms. For only the second time in our history we have a former president who lost his bid for reelection to a second term running against the sitting president who beat him. This has reduced the uncertainty factor across the...