El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate (eBook)

Michael J. McPhaden, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, USA. Agus Santoso, University of New South Wales, Australia. Wenju Cai, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia.

List of Contributors vii

Acknowledgments xiii

Preface xv

Section I: Introduction

1. Introduction to El Nino Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate
Michael J. McPhaden, Agus Santoso, and Wenju Cai 3

2. ENSO in the Global Climate System
Kevin E. Trenberth 21

Section II: Observations

3. ENSO Observations
Michael J. McPhaden, Tong Lee, Severine Fournier, and Magdalena A. Balmaseda 41

4. ENSO Diversity
Antonietta Capotondi, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Jong-Seong Kug, Ken Takahashi, and Michael J. McPhaden 65

5. Past ENSO Variability: Reconstructions, Models, and Implications
Julien Emile-Geay, Kim M. Cobb, Julia E. Cole, Mary Elliot, and Feng Zhu 87

Section III: Theories and Dynamics

6. Simple ENSO Models
Fei-Fei Jin, Han-Ching Chen, Sen Zhao, Michiya Hayashi, Christina Karamperidou, Malte F. Stuecker, Ruihuang Xie, and Licheng Geng 121

7. ENSO Irregularity and Asymmetry
Soon-Il An, Eli Tziperman, Yuko M. Okumura, and Tim Li 153

8. ENSO Low-frequency Modulation and Mean State Interactions
Alexey V. Fedorov, Shineng Hu, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Aaron F. Z. Levine, and Clara Deser 173

Section IV: Modeling and Prediction

9. ENSO Modelling: History, Progress and Challenges
Eric Guilyardi, Antonietta Capotondi, Matthieu Lengaigne, Sulian Thual, and Andrew T. Wittenberg 201

10. ENSO Prediction
Michelle L. L'Heureux, Aaron F. Z. Levine, Matthew Newman, Catherine Ganter, Jing-Jia Luo, Michael K. Tippett, and Timothy N. Stockdale 227

Section V: Remote and External Forcing

11. ENSO Remote Forcing: Influence of Climate Variability Outside the Tropical Pacific
Jong-Seong Kug, Jerome Vialard, Yoo-Geun Ham, Jin-Yi Yu, and Matthieu Lengaigne 249

12. The Effect of Strong Volcanic Eruptions on ENSO
Shayne McGregor, Myriam Khodri, Nicola Maher, Masamichi Ohba, Francesco S. R. Pausata, and Samantha Stevenson 267

13. ENSO Response to Greenhouse Forcing
Wenju Cai, Agus Santoso, Guojian Wang, Lixin Wu, Mat Collins, Matthieu Lengaigne, Scott Power, and Axel Timmermann 289

Section VI: Teleconnections and Impacts

14. ENSO Atmospheric Teleconnections
Andrea S. Taschetto, Caroline C. Ummenhofer, Malte F. Stuecker, Dietmar Dommenget, Karumuri Ashok, Regina R. Rodrigues, and Sang-Wook Yeh 311

15. ENSO Oceanic Teleconnections
Janet Sprintall, Sophie Cravatte, Boris Dewitte, Yan Du, and Alexander Sen Gupta 337

16. Impact of El Nino on Weather and Climate Extremes
Lisa Goddard and Alexander Gershunov 361

17. ENSO and Tropical Cyclones
I-I Lin, Suzana J. Camargo, Christina M. Patricola, Julien Boucharel, Savin Chand, Phil Klotzbach, Johnny C. L. Chan, Bin Wang, Ping Chang, Tim Li, and Fei-Fei Jin 377

18. ENSO-Driven Ocean Extremes and Their Ecosystem Impacts
Neil J. Holbrook, Danielle C. Claar, Alistair J. Hobday, Kathleen L. McInnes, Eric C. J. Oliver, Alex Sen Gupta, Matthew J. Widlansky, and Xuebin Zhang 409

19. ENSO Impact on Marine Fisheries and Ecosystems
Patrick Lehodey, Arnaud Bertrand, Alistair J. Hobday, Hidetada Kiyofuji, Sam McClatchie, Christophe E. Menkès, Graham Pilling, Jeffrey Polovina, and Desiree Tommasi 429

20. ENSO and the Carbon Cycle
Richard A. Betts, Chantelle A. Burton, Richard A. Feely, Mat Collins, Chris D. Jones, and Andy J. Wiltshire 453

Section VII: Closing

21. ENSO in a Changing Climate: Challenges, Paleo-Perspectives, and Outlook
Christina Karamperidou, Malte F. Stuecker, Axel Timmermann, Kyung-Sook Yun, Sun-Seon Lee, Fei-Fei Jin, Agus Santoso, Michael J. McPhaden, and Wenju Cai 473

Glossary 485

Index 491