Making Sense of Markets

Kevin Gardiner is former Managing Director and Chief Investment Officer, Europe at Barclays Wealth, where he was involved in the design and implementation of the investment process, taking tactical and strategic views on returns on a portfolio of over 200bn. Prior to joining Barclays, Kevin was Global Head of Equity Strategy at HSBC's investment banking unit in London, which he joined in 2003. He has worked at several other investment banks and the Bank of England in a financial market career covering more than thirty years. In 1994, while working as an economist at Morgan Stanley, he wrote the 'Celtic Tiger' report on the Irish economy. He is a member of the board of Governors and Chair of the Finance Committee, Atlantic College and Distinguished Guest Lecturer for the Summer MBA programme, run by St Peter's College, Oxford. He is also on the retained speaker programme at the CFA. Kevin was educated at Glan Ely Comprehensive (Cardiff), and was awarded an LEA scholarship to UWC Atlantic College (Llantwit Major), where he took the International Baccalaureate. He studied economics at the London School of Economics (BSc Econ, first class honours and university prizes) and Cambridge University (MPhil).

Introduction: What We Talk About When We Talk About Markets
PART I: THE GLASS IS HALF-FULL
1: Why Is Everybody So Gloomy?
The Conventional Account Of What's Gone Wrong
2: An Alternative Account – A Richness Of Embarrassments
Money Didn't Make The World Go Round
3: Five Big Things To Worry Less About – Or Why It Still Pays To Invest In The West
3.I: Debt – There Is Life After It
3.II: Demography – The Timebomb Defused
3.III. Decadence – The West Can Compete
3.IV: Depletion – The Sustainability Challenge
3.V: Danger – Geopolitical Tensions In Context
4: Sources Of Perspective – And A Tiger's Tale
Taking A Wider View
Raising The Signal-To-Noise Ratio
Avoid Clichés Like The Plague
Anchoring Downwards: Why Gloom Gets A Grip
PART II: WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT
5: Know The Game, Know Yourself
Be Satisficed: What Investment Is Not About, And The Importance Of Showing Up
Know Your Pundits; The Only Theme Worth Investing In
A Personal Investment Policy
6: Back To Basics: What You Need To Own – It's About Time
Here For The Duration: The Key Investment Characteristics
The Usual Suspects: The Main Asset Classes And The 'Must Haves'
7: Putting It All Together – Weighting In Vain?
Reasonable Expectations And Fair Values
Weighting In Vain
8: Conclusion – Postmodern Portfolio Theory