European Climate Vulnerabilities and Adaptation

Philipp Schmidt-Thomé, Senior Scientist, Geological Survey of Finland, Finland. Stefan Greiving, Professor, University of Dortmund, Institute of Spatial Planning, Germany.

Biographies xi Acknowledgements xiii List of Contributors xv Chapter 1 Introducing the pan-European approach to integration on climate change impacts and vulnerabilities into regional development perspectives 1 Philipp Schmidt-Thom'e and Stefan Greiving 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Further research 3 1.3 Structure of the book 4 References 4 Chapter 2 Methodology for an integrated climate change vulnerability assessment 5 Johannes Luckenkotter, Christian Lindner and Stefan Greiving 2.1 Introduction 5 2.2 Overview of the methodology 6 2.3 Methodology in detail 7 2.4 Methodological reflections 13 2.5 Conclusion 14 References 14 Chapter 3 Identifying a typology of climate change in Europe 17 Carsten Walther, Anne Holsten and Jurgen P. Kropp 3.1 Introduction 17 3.2 Methods applied 18 3.3 Results and discussion 23 3.4 Conclusion 29 References 29 Chapter 4 Climate change exposure assessment of European regions 31 Christian Lindner, Stefan Greiving and Anne Holsten 4.1 Introduction 31 4.2 Future climate projections: the CCLM model 32 4.3 Indicators on exposure to climatic stimuli 33 4.4 Patterns of climatic changes across Europe 36 4.5 Conclusion 48 References 48 Chapter 5 Physical, environmental, social and cultural impacts of climate change on Europe s regions 51 Johannes Luckenkotter, Christian Lindner, Florian Flex and Stefan Greiving 5.1 Introduction 51 5.2 Physical impacts of climate change 52 5.3 Environmental impacts of climate change 59 5.4 Social impacts of climate change 71 5.5 Cultural impact of climate change 80 References 89 Chapter 6 Economic impacts of climate change on Europe s regions 95 Johannes Luckenkotter, Ove Langeland, Bjorg Langset, Emmanouil Tranos, Simin Davoudi and Christian Lindner 6.1 Introduction 96 6.2 Agriculture and forestry 96 6.3 Tourism 99 6.4 Energy 105 6.5 Combined economic impact of climate change 110 References 110 Chapter 7 Assessing adaptive capacity to climate change in European regions 113 Sirkku Juhola, Lasse Peltonen and Petteri Niemi 7.1 Introduction 113 7.2 Adaptation and adaptive capacity 114 7.3 Assessing adaptive capacity 116 7.4 Mapping the adaptive capacity of European regions 119 7.5 Enhancement of adaptive capacity in Europe 125 7.6 Conclusion 128 References 128 Chapter 8 Exploring mitigative and response capacities to climate change in European regions 131 Sirkku Juhola, Lasse Peltonen, Petteri Niemi and Jarmo Vehmas 8.1 Introduction 131 8.2 Regional capacities to mitigate climate change 132 8.3 Regional GHG emissions 133 8.4 Determinants of mitigative capacity 134 8.5 Territorial potentials for mitigation of climate change 138 8.6 Regional response capacity to deal with climate change 140 8.7 Conclusion 145 References 145 Chapter 9 Overall impact and vulnerability to climate change in Europe 147 Johannes Luckenkotter, Christian Lindner and Stefan Greiving 9.1 Overall potential impact of climate change 148 9.2 Vulnerability to climate change 159 9.3 Conclusions 166 References 169 Chapter 10 Role of case studies methodological concept 171 Stefan Greiving and Philipp Schmidt-Thom'e 10.1 Case studies 171 References 174 Chapter 11 Integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change: the case study North Rhine Westphalia 175 Anne Holsten, Carsten Walther, Olivia Roithmeier and Jurgen P. Kropp 11.1 Introduction 176 11.2 Description of the study area 176 11.3 Past climatic changes and their impacts in the study area 178 11.4 Methodology of an integrated vulnerability assessment 178 11.5 Results 189 11.6 Discussion 195 11.7 Conclusion 200 Acknowledgements 200 References 200 Chapter 12 Climate change impacts on the Hungarian, Romanian and Slovak Territories of the Tisza catchment area 205 Kriszti'an Schneller, G'abor B'alint, Alina Chicos,, M'aria Csete, Jan Dzurdzenik, Annam'aria Goncz, Alexandru-Ionut Petrisor, Tesliar Jaroslav and Tam'as P'alvolgyi 12.1 Introduction 206 12.2 Brief characteristics of Tisza River Basin 206 12.3 Climate change impacts on Tisza River Basin 208 12.4 Vulnerability assessment of the Tisza River case study area 210 12.5 Existing climate change adaptation strategies in the case study area 219 12.6 Policy recommendation and implications 226 References 227 Chapter 13 Tourism, climate change and water resources: coastal Mediterranean Spain as an example 231 David Saur'y, Jorge Olcina, Jos'e Fernando Vera, Javier Mart'yn-Vide, Hug March, Anna Serra-Llobet and Emilio Padilla 13.1 Introduction 232 13.2 The study area: a brief presentation 233 13.3 Methodological outline 234 13.4 Vulnerability assessment 237 13.5 Response strategies and policy development 247 13.6 Further outlook on the issue: public perception of the relationships between climate change, water resources and tourism in the tourist zones 249 13.7 Conclusions 249 Acknowledgements 251 References 251 Chapter 14 Sensitivity analyses of the ESPON Climate framework, on the basis of the case study on flooding in the Netherlands 253 Joost M. Knoop, Arno Bouwman and Hans Visser 14.1 Introduction 254 14.2 Flood protection in the Netherlands 256 14.3 Flood modelling 258 14.4 Sensitivity analysis 261 14.5 Discussion and conclusions 266 References 270 Chapter 15 Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in the Alpine space: a case study on the adaptive capacity of the tourism sector 273 Sylvia Kruse, Manuela Stiffler, Daniel Baumgartner and Marco Putz 15.1 Introduction 274 15.2 Climate change impacts and the adaptation of Alpine tourism 275 15.3 Assessing adaptive capacity: methods and measures 277 15.4 Results 281 15.5 Discussion and conclusions 284 References 285 Chapter 16 Comparative analysis of the case studies 289 Stefan Greiving 16.1 Comparative analysis 289 Reference 294 Chapter 17 Implications for territorial development and challenges for the territorial cohesion of the European Union 295 Stefan Greiving, Philipp Schmidt-Thom'e, Simin Davoudi, Lasse Peltonen and Teresa Sprague 17.1 Introduction 296 17.2 Climate change and its implications for existing European policies 296 17.3 Policy options for climate change adaptation and mitigation 303 17.4 Conclusions 318 References 319 Index 323