Climate Prediction and Agriculture (eBook)

Foreword 5
Preface 8
Contents 10
Contributors 20
Climate Prediction and Agriculture: Summary and the Way Forward 26
Introduction 26
Predicting Climate Fluctuations and Agricultural Impacts 27
Effectiveness of Seasonal Forecasts and Climate Risk Management 28
Economics of Climate Forecast Applications 30
Assessing Adoption and Benefit 31
Building on Farmers’ Knowledge 32
Way Forward 33
Conclusions 36
Acknowledgements 36
References 36
Climate Downscaling: Assessment of the Added Values Using Regional Climate Models 39
Introduction 39
Smaller Spatial Scales 40
Predictability at Smaller Spatial and Temporal Scales 43
Dynamical Downscaling Forecasts 47
Future Directions 50
References 51
Development of a Combined Crop and Climate Forecasting System for Seasonal to Decadal Predictions 54
Rationale 54
Numerical Crop and Climate Models 54
Combining Crop and Climate Models 55
Consideration of the Forecast Skill of a Combined Crop- Climate Modeling System 57
An Integrated Approach to Climate-Crop Modeling 58
Conclusions 62
References 62
Delivering Climate Forecast Products to Farmers: Ex Post Assessment of Impacts of Climate Information on Corn Production Systems in Isabela, Philippines 64
Introduction 64
Methods 65
Results 67
Conclusions 69
Acknowledgements 70
References 70
Seasonal Predictions and Monitoring for Sahel Region 72
Introduction 72
Data and Methods 73
Results 74
Conclusions 76
References 78
Institutionalizing Climate Forecast Applications for Agriculture 80
Introduction 80
Institutional Proclivity and Evolution 80
Role of Demonstration Studies in Institutionalization 82
Enabling Local Institutions 82
Conclusions 83
References 84
Climate Applications and Agriculture: CGIAR Efforts, Capacities and Partner Opportunities 85
Introduction 85
CGIAR Inter-Center Initiatives 85
Getting a Grip on Variability 86
Improving Analytical Tools for Monitoring Drought and Desertification 86
Predicting Seasonal Rainfall 87
Predicting Climate Change and Its Consequences 87
Effects of Climate Variability on Agriculture 87
Farmer Perceptions of Drought 89
Livestock and Drought 89
Drought Insurance to Help Land Users Manage Climatic Variability 89
Information Technology for Knowledge-Sharing 90
Conclusions: Future Climate Applications in CGIAR Centers and Partnership Opportunities 90
References 91
Institutional Capacity Building in Developing Countries through Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) Process 93
Introduction 93
Origin of the COFs 94
COF and Associated Institutional Synergies 94
Capacity Building of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) 95
Capacity Building of Users of Climate Information 96
Capacity Building of Journalist Institutions 96
Improving Regional and National Scientific and Climate Research Capability 97
Institutional Challenges 97
Technical Challenges 98
Conclusions and Recommendations 98
References 99
Use of ENSO-Driven Climatic Information for Optimum Irrigation under Drought Conditions: Preliminary Assessment Based on Model Results for the Maipo River Basin, Chile 100
Introduction 100
Climate Variability and Agricultural Systems 101
Methodological Framework 103
Results and Discussion 106
Acknowledgements 108
References 108
Towards the Development of a Spatial Decision Support System ( SDSS) for the Application of Climate Forecasts in Uruguayan Rice Production Sector 110
Introduction 110
Materials and Methods 110
Results and Discussion 111
Conclusions 116
References 118
Assessing the Use of Seasonal Climate Forecasts to Support Farmers in the Andean Highlands 119
Introduction 119
Data and Methods 119
Results and Discussion 123
Conclusions 129
Acknowledgements 129
References 129
Application of Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Sustainable Agricultural Production in Telangana Subdivision of Andhra Pradesh, India 131
Introduction 131
Methods 132
Results and Discussion 138
Conclusions 146
Acknowledgements 146
References 147
Localized Climate Forecasting System: Seasonal Climate and Weather Prediction for Farm- Level Decision- Making 148
Introduction 148
Study Area 148
Methodology 149
Results and Discussion 150
Preliminary Conclusions 152
Acknowledgements 153
Use of Sea Surface Temperature for Predicting Optimum Planting Window for Potato at Pengalengan, West Java, Indonesia 154
Introduction 154
Methodology 155
Results and Discussion 156
Acknowledgements 159
References 159
Climate Forecast for Better Water Management in Agriculture: A Case Study for Southern India 161
Introduction 161
Description of the Study Area 161
Farm and Farmers Characteristics 162
ENSO Response Analysis 164
Spatiotemporal Variability in Water Table Levels 165
ENSO, Rainfall and PET 165
Crop Evapotranspiration and Irrigation Requirement 166
Conclusions 171
Acknowledgements 173
References 173
Linking Corn Production, Climate Information and Farm- Level Decision- Making: A Case Study in Isabela, Philippines 174
Introduction 174
Methodology 175
Results and Discussion 176
Summary and Conclusions 180
Acknowledgements 181
References 181
Use of ENSO-Based Seasonal Rainfall Forecasting for Informed Cropping Decisions by Farmers in the SAT India 182
Introduction 182
Advances in Seasonal Climate Forecasting 182
Advances in Crop Modeling 183
Overall Objective 183
Specific Objectives 183
Study Area 184
Approach 185
Results and Discussion 195
Conclusions 196
References 196
Application of Climate Prediction for Rice Production in the Mekong River Delta ( Vietnam) 198
Introduction 198
Data and Methodology 199
Results 200
Conclusions 203
Acknowledgements 204
References 204
Climate Prediction and Agriculture: What Is Different about Sudano- Sahelian West Africa? 205
Introduction 205
The Context: Distinctive Climate Variability 205
Forecasts for Smallholder Food Security: Which Way Forward? 210
Conclusions 214
References 216
Can ENSO Help in Agricultural Decision- Making in Ghana? 220
Introduction 220
Materials and Methods 221
Results and Discussion 222
General Discussion 225
Conclusions 225
Acknowledgements 226
References 226
Application of Seasonal Climate Forecasts to Predict Regional Scale Crop Yields in South Africa 228
Introduction 228
Study Area and Methodology 229
Results 234
Discussion and Recommendations 235
Acknowledgements 238
References 238
Climate Information for Food Security: Responding to User’s Climate Information Needs 240
Introduction 240
Methodology 240
Results 244
Summary Findings for Wakiso Survey 253
Statistical Validation of Farmers’ Knowledge 253
Regression Models Derived from the Relationships 256
Discussion 259
Conclusions 261
References 261
Appendix 262
Improving Applications in Agriculture of ENSO- Based Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts Considering Atlantic Ocean Surface Temperatures 264
Introduction 264
Methods 265
Results 265
Conclusions 271
References 271
AGRIDEMA: An EU-Funded Effort to Promote the Use of Climate and Crop Simulation Models in Agricultural Decision- Making 273
Introduction 273
AGRIDEMA Description 274
AGRIDEMA Current Status 277
References 277
Web-Based System to True-Forecast Disease Epidemics – Case Study for Fusarium Head Blight of Wheat 279
Introduction 279
Material and Methods 280
Results and Discussion 281
Acknowledgements 284
References 284
Climate-Based Agricultural Risk Management Tools for Florida, Georgia and Alabama, USA 286
Introduction 286
Methodology 287
Information Dissemination 288
Evaluation and Impact Assessment 291
Acknowledgements 291
Climate Prediction and Agriculture: Lessons Learned and Future Challenges from an Agricultural Development Perspective 292
Introduction 292
Need for the Assessment of the Value of Climate Forecasts 292
Climate Predictions and Risk Management 294
Climate Policy and Climate Predictions 295
References 295
Conclusions and Recommendations 297
Conclusions 297
Recommendations 297
Index 301