Growing Old in the Future

Summary.- 1 Introduction.- 1.1 Background.- 1.2 Design and course of the scenario project on ageing.- 1.3 Taking a further look at scenarios.- 1.4 Design of the report.- 2 Scenario A: The reference scenario.- 2.1 Introduction.- 2.2 Demographic developments.- 2.3 The state of health of the elderly.- 2.4 Social developments.- 2.5 The demand for (health) care facilities.- 2.6 The economic context.- 3 Medical and medical-technological developments.- 3.1 Introduction.- 3.2 Expectations with respect to medicine and pharmacology.- 3.3 Expectations with respect to technology.- 3.4 Towards a second medical revolution?.- 3.5 Expectations with respect to cell biology.- 3.6 Concluding remarks.- 4 Scenario B: Increasing growth in demand for facilities.- 4.1 Introduction.- 4.2 Social developments as they affect the health situation.- 4.3 Consequences for facilities.- 4.4 The economic context.- 5 Scenario C: Decreasing growth in demand for facilities.- 5.1 Introduction.- 5.2 Social developments as they affect the health situation.- 5.3 Developments relating to facilities for the elderly.- 5.4 The economic context.- 6 Disturbing developments.- 6.1 Introduction.- 6.2 Postponement of dementia.- 6.3 Extreme decrease in intergenerational solidarity.- 6.4 Intersecting developments in relation to the scenarios.- 7 Application possibilities for scenarios.- 7.1 Introduction.- 7.2 Scenarios as ‘learning environments’.- 7.3. Scenarios and health care facilities for the elderly.- 7.4 A closer look at putting the scenario report to active use.- 7.5 Concluding remarks.- Appendices.