Forecasting the Health of Elderly Populations

One. Introduction.- 1 The Scientific and Policy Needs for Improved Health Forecasting Models for Elderly Populations.- Two. Methodological Issues.- 2 Actuarial and Demographic Forecasting Methods.- 3 Demographic Change in the United States, 1970-2050.- 4 Health Forecasting and Models of Aging.- Three. Forecasting Techniques for Specific Diseases.- 5 Cancer Forecasting: Cohort Models of Disease Progression and Mortality.- 6 The Effects of Risk Factors on Male and Female Cardiovascular Risks in Middle and Late Age.- 7 Frailty and Forecasts of Active Life Expectancy in the United States.- 8 Risk Factors Affecting Multiple-Disease Efficacy and Effectiveness of Intervention Programs.- Four. Effects of Interventions on Health Costs.- 9 Estimates and Projections of Dementia-Related Service Expenditures.- 10 A Forecasting Model for the Assessment of Medical Technologies: End-Stage Renal Disease.- 11 Projections of the Aged Supplementary Security Income Population: The Implications of Uncertainty.- 12 Evaluation of Long-Term Care: Estimation of Health Transitions in Frail Populations.- 13 Financing and Use of Long-Term Care for the Elderly.- Five. Longitudinal Research: Current Status and Future Outlook.- 14 Molecular Biological Approaches to Understanding Aging and Senescence.- 15 Biomedical Research and Changing Concepts of Disease and Aging: Implications for Long-Term Health Forecasts for Elderly Populations.